Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still very early, but if I had to venture a guess the 18z NAM will tick north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone is splitting hairs, but for what. Wave #2 3-6" NYC 6"+ south of there... look out your window and enjoy the snow now - tomorrow's storm falls mostly overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here is the TEXT OUTPUT FOR KISP (Islip Airport). Verbatim the 12Z run on the Euro calls for 6.5" however at hour 42 another .22 liquid falls as a mix with no accumulation but the 700mb, 850mb, & 925mb all below freezing. Just the Surface is above 35 degrees... If that cold air funnels down to the surface quicker this .22 of mix could possibly be another 1-2" of snow added to the 6.5" TEXT KISP.JPG Nice work. And everyone knows it can snow and stick at 34, esp with heavy rates. It will quickly drop to 33/32 within the first hour of heavy snow once all levels cool. Don't worship the models. This is where you read what the model tells you and then add your meteorology and experience to tell you what will likely unfold. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 One thing to keep in mind, the NAM was a northern outlier. Most of us thought that it would cave to the other models. On a side note for what it is, the SREFS ticked north. This is true. The NAM was way north compared to the other models, which have shifted south, yes, but it has only been one run that they have really gone south. I know I've said it a few times already, but again.....if we come out of this getting 4-7" or so, I consider that scoring for us!!.....it's not as if there will be a 15-20" bullseye that we miss out on. If we don't jackpot, we most likely will miss it by a few inches or so. And yes.....the last 3 runs of the SREF and the plumes have given the NYC area 10", 5" and 7.5" respectively. We're looking good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still very early, but if I had to venture a guess the 18z NAM will tick north... Seeing the southern trend on much of the guidance today, and the NAM knowingly possessing a NW bias at this juncture, may I ask why? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow mixed with freezing rain already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 looking at the 18z nam sim radar, storm looks to sink south some from the last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 looking at the 18z nam sim radar, storm looks to sink south some from the last run Does look like the northern prceip shield is squashed somewhat, but the 0 850 line is also north somewhat vs. 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 watches up for mount holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 EPS mean is 6-8" areawide both events combined. Only exception is LHV and Upstate NY which are 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 ...SOME SNOW AND ICE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS... THEN POTENTIALLY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-105-040830- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-150304T1100Z/ /O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0006.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/ WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- UPPER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON... SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... CHALFONT...PERKASIE 319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH INTO THIS EVENING... THEN 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AND IF SLEET LASTS LONGER DURING THE TRANSITION. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING THEN TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW... POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES... WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S... THEN RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'll gladley take 2-4" and 4-6 within 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I see people posting SNJ/CNJ Jackpots but they lose a lot of QPF due to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 New nam looks looks considerably north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 New nam looks looks considerably north... HUH??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The new NAM is constricting the precip shield more. It's drier for far SNJ and drier for far northern areas and about the same for central areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 New nam looks looks considerably north... Que? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And at hr 48 the NAM actually bumped North some. Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The new NAM is constricting the precip shield more. It's drier for far SNJ and drier for far northern areas and about the same for central areas.Sorry yes, I noticed far south jersey much drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hmm.....to me the NAM looks better, not worse at 45 hours. We'll see though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And at hr 48 the NAM actually bumped North some. Great news. just enough to tease NW NJ and LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Further NW at hour 51 as well. Sharp cut off North of Rt. 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The nam did indeed bump North a bit, LHV gets back into some of the better snows, still sharp cutoff North of 84 tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still snowing moderately Thursday night for the southeastern 2/3rds of the area. Much slower than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What a cut off, 0.50-0.75" total from all events in far NW NJ and close to 2" at Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What a cut off, 0.50-0.75" total from all events in far NW NJ and close to 2" at Sandy Hook.geez havent we heard this it seems for a few years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam weenie for both events, sharp cut off 84 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam weenie for both events, sharp cut off 84 north Amazing how Boston gets almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how Boston gets almost nothing Good lol jk....... but seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Upton just issued watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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