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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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Here is the TEXT OUTPUT FOR KISP (Islip Airport). Verbatim the 12Z run on the Euro calls for 6.5" however at hour 42 another .22 liquid falls as a mix with no accumulation but the 700mb, 850mb, & 925mb all below freezing. Just the Surface is above 35 degrees... If that cold air funnels down to the surface quicker this .22 of mix could possibly be another 1-2" of snow added to the 6.5"

attachicon.gifTEXT KISP.JPG

Nice work. And everyone knows it can snow and stick at 34, esp with heavy rates. It will quickly drop to 33/32 within the first hour of heavy snow once all levels cool. Don't worship the models. This is where you read what the model tells you and then add your meteorology and experience to tell you what will likely unfold.

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One thing to keep in mind, the NAM was a northern outlier. Most of us thought that it would cave to the other models. On a side note for what it is, the SREFS ticked north.

This is true. The NAM was way north compared to the other models, which have shifted south, yes, but it has only been one run that they have really gone south. I know I've said it a few times already, but again.....if we come out of this getting 4-7" or so, I consider that scoring for us!!.....it's not as if there will be a 15-20" bullseye that we miss out on. If we don't jackpot, we most likely will miss it by a few inches or so. And yes.....the last 3 runs of the SREF and the plumes have given the NYC area 10", 5" and 7.5" respectively. We're looking good right now

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Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...SOME SNOW AND ICE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS... THEN

POTENTIALLY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY...

NJZ007>010-PAZ060>062-105-040830-

/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-150304T1100Z/

/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0006.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/

WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

UPPER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...

SOMERVILLE...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...

CHALFONT...PERKASIE

319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST

WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING

THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH INTO THIS

EVENING... THEN 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND

THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW

AND IF SLEET LASTS LONGER DURING THE TRANSITION.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET THEN CHANGE TO

FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING THEN TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW... POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH

MUCH OF TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL

IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S... THEN RISING INTO THE

LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY

ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITY. USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING...

ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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