ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is the 24 hr total snows on the 12 Z ECM ecm.jpg The other image was including todays storm as well But isn't that only hours 48-72? What happened to hours 36-48??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is the 24 hr total snows on the 12 Z ECM ecm.jpg The other image was including todays storm as well That map would imply nyc getting 4in from today's event. Doesn't seem right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That map would imply nyc getting 4in from today's event. Doesn't seem right to me. I see that map as only the snow that falls after hour 48. 3"-5" of snow falls from hours 42-48 alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is the 24 hr total snows on the 12 Z ECM ecm.jpg The other image was including todays storm as well Yeah.....the thing is, many people seem to be expecting 6-10" at least and hoping for a foot or so.....when in reality, we were never really in the jackpot zone and even in the jackpot zone, they might only see 7-10".....if this was a 12-18" storm in the best banding, then maybe we could be just outside of that and still see 6-10".....however, in this case, being outside of the best banding would lead to another 3,4,5 inch event. 4-7" still seems good , but if the trend south continues, there's no reason to still be expecting an easy 6"+. Most of the maps showing this are taking into account the 1-3" later on today and tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That map would imply nyc getting 4in from today's event. Doesn't seem right to me. No cause that map covers hours 48 thru 72 hrs .. a 24 hr period Has nothing to do with today (the image posted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No cause that map covers hours 48 thru 72 hrs .. a 24 hr period Has nothing to do with today (the image posted) NYC sees very good snow from hours 42-48 on the 12z euro. The map you posted doesn't include that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the output does say we get .34 frozen today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I see that map as only the snow that falls after hour 48. 3"-5" of snow falls from hours 42-48 alone. Not on the ECM Temps Precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the output does say we get .34 frozen today How much freezing rain today if you don't mind me asking at MMU? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No cause that map covers hours 48 thru 72 hrs .. a 24 hr period Has nothing to do with today (the image posted) I was comparing to the previous map that posted which showed 7-8in for nyc. Where would the other 3-4in come from. AG hit in on the head, your map doesn't include hours 42-48 where several inches would likely fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm guessing that includes some of the precip that starts as rain later Wed before the changeover too... 3-6 or 4-8 seems reasonable to me. Might it be just for the second wave since it states 24 hour precip on bottom of map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I was comparing to the previous map that posted which showed 7-8in for nyc. Where would the other 3-4in come from. AG hit in on the head, your map doesn't include hours 42-48 where several inches fall. See the maps posted for hour 42. Surface is above freezing ..could it still be snow? Possibly but per to what the model is showing 42-48 is not pure snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not on the ECM Temps 42.jpg Precip type 421.jpg Showing a 42 hr panel doesnt help anyones argument here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not on the ECM Temps 42.jpg Precip type 421.jpg Post 24 hour snow from hour 42. The 66 hour map. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 See the maps posted for hour 42. Surface is above freezing ..could it still be snow? Possibly but per to what the model is showing 42-48 is not pure snow Hour 45 is clearly snow. SV maps, which are the most conservative Euro snow maps around (and take all temps into account), have 4"+ from hours 42-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 High res Euro maps show temps cooling aloft between hours 39 and 42 and taking possibly as long as hour 45 to completely cool all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hour 45 is clearly snow. SV maps, which are the most conservative Euro snow maps around (and take all temps into account), have 4"+ from hours 42-48. Snowfall amounts just look too low throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ..46 frozen for NYC on the ECMWF, way drier. It looks like it's try to split it into two waves so they are weaker and the second one is further south. Do I buy this I do not know yet. You are looking at a very bad Accuwx text sounding that is only in 6 hour increments. The flip to heavy snow occurs in between hours 42 and 45 and that's when the snow rates are 1"-2" an hour, right near NYC. If Atown posts the correct Eurowx snow map (hours 42-66), it will clearly show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is the 24 hr total snows on the 12 Z ECM ecm.jpg The other image was including todays storm as well This map is wrong.. You didn't include the snowfall over the 24 hour period ending at 48hour.. You only posted the 72 hour 24 hour snow map.. Here are all the snowmaps in 24 hour increments. Euro only shows 1" for most of the tri-state for today by the way... and 2" NW. 24 hour Snowfall acumm at the 24 hour mark 24 hour Snowfall acumm at the 48 hour mark 24 hour Snowfall acumm at the 72 hour mark Total Snowfall through 72 hours (0-72 hours) including today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Can I ask why exactly you feel this? Especially with all guidance taking a general jog south today A couple of reasons. This so called shift south was more of the northern shield of moisture shrinking or tightening up of the gradient. The Euro also has it to some degree just not as much. I got a hunch the confluence is not going to be as strong as currently modeled. One other thing, do you trust any model right now even inside 48 hours. I don't. Could be my inner weenie in me, but I think we will see a correction north. In the end I think we will see a NNJ/ CNJ jackpot instead of the current showing of a CNJ/ SNJ jackpot. I know this post probably belongs in banter since I have no scientific backing in my statement. Just a hunch my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not on the ECM Temps 42.jpg Precip type 421.jpg There is your error Hour 42 at KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 That is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There is your error Hour 42 at KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 That is snow And the best precip over NYC is from hours 42 to 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There is your error Hour 42 at KNYC 850 -4 925 - 2 That is snow Ty. Brother where do you get your forecast soundings from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Following up on this thread after 2 days. It was a minor 2" event primarily with ice then. Snow maps show 8" now? NWS still have me for 2-4". Any update expected for immediate western suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ty. Brother where do you get your forecast soundings from? I pull level by level off WBX . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This map is wrong.. You didn't include the snowfall over the 24 hour period ending at 48hour.. You only posted the 72 hour 24 hour snow map.. Here are all the snowmaps in 24 hour increments. Euro only shows 1" for most of the tri-state for today by the way... and 2" NW. 24 hour.JPG 48 hour.JPG 72 hour.JPG Run total.JPG 36 hrs its rain .. on the precipitation maps 37 surface temp hr 42 its wintry mix surface temp 34 Sometime between 42 and 48 it switches..We go in 6 hr increments .... This is precip totals from 36- 60 0.06 0.17 0.21 0.12 0.09 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A couple of reasons. This so called shift south was more of the northern shield of moisture shrinking or tightening up of the gradient. The Euro also has it to some degree just not as much. I got a hunch the confluence is not going to be as strong as currently modeled. One other thing, do you trust any model right now even inside 48 hours. I don't. Could be my inner weenie in me, but I think we will see a correction north. In the end I think we will see a NNJ/ CNJ jackpot instead of the current showing of a CNJ/ SNJ jackpot. I know this post probably belongs in banter since I have no scientific backing in my statement. Just a hunch my friends. It was more than that. The most drastic adjustment came, as far as I can tell, from the 12Z NAM, which was not only less robust in terms of QPF, but also showed a pretty significant southeastward correction with the entire frontal boundary. 6z: And then 12z: The difference is evident in both the thermal gradient and the wind field on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 36 hrs its rain .. on the precipitation maps 37 surface temp hr 42 its wintry mix surface temp 34 Sometime between 42 and 48 it switches..We go in 6 hr increments .... This is precip totals from 36- 60 0.06 0.17 0.21 0.12 0.09 for NYC Come on , you know better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It was more than that. The most drastic adjustment came, as far as I can tell, from the 12Z NAM, which was not only less robust in terms of QPF, but also showed a pretty significant southeastward correction with the entire frontal boundary. 6z: And then 12z: The difference is evident in both the thermal gradient and the wind field on those maps. One thing to keep in mind, the NAM was a northern outlier. Most of us thought that it would cave to the other models. On a side note for what it is, the SREFS ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWisher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 36 hrs its rain .. on the precipitation maps 37 surface temp hr 42 its wintry mix surface temp 34 Sometime between 42 and 48 it switches..We go in 6 hr increments .... This is precip totals from 36- 60 0.06 0.17 0.21 0.12 0.09 for NYC Here is the TEXT OUTPUT FOR KISP (Islip Airport). Verbatim the 12Z run on the Euro calls for 6.1" however at hour 42 another .22 liquid falls as a mix with no accumulation but the 700mb, 850mb, & 925mb all below freezing. Just the Surface is above 35 degrees... If that cold air funnels down to the surface quicker this .22 of mix could possibly be another 1-2" of snow added to the 6.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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