green tube Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Is their a realistic chance of that happening? I am thinking we see 12-1 at best... it's got zero chance. plus that map includes today's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind that euro snow total includes today, that is not all for Thursday's event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Is their a realistic chance of that happening? I am thinking we see 12-1 at best...It's possible, but my best bet would be 12:1 for the area. For 15:1, imo, there would likely be more confluence as the HP would be either stronger than current thinking, or a push further south, or both. This is post frontal precip with the potential for a LP to spin up along the boundary, vs a LP developing and riding up the coast. My point is that while higher ratios would be nice, this isn't a scenario where a more cold air would just help ratios, it would also shunt the boundary father South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Would love to see this verify. Any idea when this shuts off?? Thursday evening?Before noon on Thursday it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the further south gfs has a better profile for dendritic growth than the nam. notice how the best lift is below the DGZ on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Correct that's both storms.. It was just for kicks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the further south gfs has a better profile for dendritic growth than the nam. notice how the best lift is below the DGZ on the nam Hey brother, where would I find these on the maps. I've looked at SV (just switched from wxbell) and I don't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Realistically, for our areas I think the best call right now would be 4-7" for most of NENJ/NYC and parts of LI, 2-4" for the far NW suburbs with 7-10" for some areas south.....a shift north of course would bring those higher amounts with it into the city area. A shift south would push the city into the lower amounts. Still several model runs to go and lots of time left to panic and rejoice and panic again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Realistically, for our areas I think the best call right now would be 4-7" for most of NENJ/NYC and parts of LI, 2-4" for the far NW suburbs with 7-10" for some areas south.....a shift north of course would bring those higher amounts with it into the city area. A shift south would push the city into the lower amounts. Still several model runs to go and lots of time left to panic and rejoice and panic again Spot on for right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Spot on for right now I'm way more worried about tonight's icing potential up here.. We should see extremely heavy snow for a few hours followed by moderate sleet then frz rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All I'm going say is, look at winter as a whole....the overall win has been cold. So if it's a matter of how slow or quick the cold gets here, the cold probably will be the ultimate winner and get here a tad too quickly lol but just opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hey brother, where would I find these on the maps. I've looked at SV (just switched from wxbell) and I don't see them. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Freezing rain has greatly over performed IMBY this year. Only 15 minutes of it the other night and everything was covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KHPN&model=nam&time=current&field=omeg Ty brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SREF's are nice, the .75 line disects the city and .50 line gets to high point NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SREF's are nice, the .75 line disects the city and .50 line gets to high point NJ. Hate to be a bother but does the .5 get to coastal CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gun to my head I'd say 8" from I-80 south, locally 12" where bands set up. 4" to I-84, less north of there. Hopefully for the northern areas we see less confluence in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hate to be a bother but does the .5 get to coastal CT?Yes, probably about 15-20 miles inland or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes, probably about 15-20 miles inland or so. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hate to be a bother but does the .5 get to coastal CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm guessing that includes some of the precip that starts as rain later Wed before the changeover too... 3-6 or 4-8 seems reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind folks all we need is a 50 mile jog north by the models and we see a bonafide areawide MECS. That is a very small and easy attainable distance to achieve. I think the models are overplaying the northern confluence. Don't be surprised to see a slow march north starting at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind folks all we need is a 50 mile jog north by the models and we see a bonafide areawide MECS. That is a very small and easy attainable distance to achieve. I think the models are overplaying the northern confluence. Don't be surprised to see a slow march north starting at 00Z. Can I ask why exactly you feel this? Especially with all guidance taking a general jog south today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind folks all we need is a 50 mile jog north by the models and we see a bonafide areawide MECS. That is a very small and easy attainable distance to achieve. I think the models are overplaying the northern confluence. Don't be surprised to see a slow march north starting at 00Z. not all of that heavy precip is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind some of the areas with higher precip or snowfall totals are subjected to rain and sleet a bit more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keep in mind folks all we need is a 50 mile jog north by the models and we see a bonafide areawide MECS. That is a very small and easy attainable distance to achieve. I think the models are overplaying the northern confluence. Don't be surprised to see a slow march north starting at 00Z. Yea I can remember a couple 50mile jumps as the storm takes shape this year.. Both good and bad, I believe that 7" overperformer was a big shift for the city in a good way and of course the infamous flurry blizzard for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ..46 frozen for NYC on the ECMWF, way drier. It looks like it's try to split it into two waves so they are weaker and the second one is further south. Do I buy this I do not know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ..46 frozen for NYC on the ECMWF, way drier. It looks like it's try to split it into two waves so they are weaker and the second one is further south. Do I buy this I do not know yet. Why does that not seem to match up with the snowfall maps being posted seem to be somewhat more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Idk what to believe anymore... I'm gonna either be really happy, or really piss** come tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Why does that not seem to match up with the snowfall maps being posted seem to be somewhat more This is the 24 hr total snows on the 12 Z ECM The other image was including todays storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.