SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Also, the UKMET has tightened the northern extent significantly. Like the GFS, it's the same for the city but less to the north, I think a lot of the south concerns are more a product of the cutoff as opposed to the entire shield shifting south. Generally the max forcing focuses on a narrower area so it's not surprising that the northern extent of the precip shrinks south. It's possible C/S NJ becomes the jackpot but anyone within the metro should still pick up several inches. Any ticks from this point on should be relatively small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've noticed whichever model comes out that's newest is the one everyone hugs... The storm could very well go the route of the euro, or the nam.. Or anywhere in between.. Hugging the nam, then then the GFS, the GGEM, then ukmet is idioticHappens every storm brother. Most hobbyists (and some pros) use modeology, while the true professionals use meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The confluence seems to be strengthening on some of the models, which is limiting how far north the snow gets and makes a sharp cutoff. I think this is being overplayed somewhat but it's definitely a factor to consider.Yes.. But this will also lead to higher precipitation rates and amounts just south of the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 12z GFS is 6" at LGA and 9.5" for OKX on the last wave at 10:1. Calculating a 12-15:1 ratio would be a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea are we talking ratios with this storm or treading lightly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is a 4"-8"/5"-10" snowfall for the NYC metro. Northern sections are 2"-4"/4"-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Fair enough - I wont reiterate it again, my fault - my call is clear 6-12" SNJ/CNJ/Philly 4-7" NYC metro... we'll see how it plays out good call at this point IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea are we talking ratios with this storm or treading lightly? What do you mean? Every storm has ratios. Just different ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gefs is north of op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro is South, but the cut off is further North than the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro is South, but the cut off is further North than the GFS/GGEM. South of what? It's earlier run? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 anyone have the eurowx map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is 6"-12" for the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is 6"-12" for the NYC metro. Serviceable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 V imp Euro run and all is quiet? Hope reasons arent IMBY, Ill presume otherwise. Judging by the way things have gone , model wise, based on recent historical trends, I think 3-5 NW and 5-8 NYC/NE NJ/ LI and 8-10 TTN/PHL axis seem to be a good starting point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're all basically in the same boat on the Euro, slightly higher totals near Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're all basically in the same boat on the Euro, slightly higher totals near Sandy Hook.is it GFS-like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 is it GFS-like? Better than the GFS because it's more liberal with the northern extent of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 3-7" all are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Better than the GFS because it's more liberal with the northern extent of the precip. Sounds good take 6-10" anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 is it GFS-like?It's south of 0z but better than gfs for nw areas because the precip shield is further north before it cuts off with the subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Serviceable... I'm hoping that's tongue in cheek - hard to tell on the web sometime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would go with 4-8" based off the Euro with most people comfortably in the 5-7" range. Ratios could yield higher totals but I'm using SV conservative maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would go with 4-8" based off the Euro with most people comfortably in the 5-7" range. Ratios could yield higher totals but I'm using SV conservative maps. yea...looking at the eurowx map it's a great run for the immediate metro...4-8/5-9 type deal. more south of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow Kentucky and wc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If totals made it to 15:1 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If totals made it to 15:1 euro Is their a realistic chance of that happening? I am thinking we see 12-1 at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Likuidsky3 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If totals made it to 15:1 euro Would love to see this verify. Any idea when this shuts off?? Thursday evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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