SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I wish the models adjusted slightly further north we're close to the edge between higher and lesser amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The RGEM is out of range and can do fluky things 24-48 hrs out. We need to get past today first.For us north of NYC this is heading in the wrong direction today imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For us north of NYC this is heading in the wrong direction today imo We heard you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 QPF for only the second system (last three runs of the GFS): Note: Not all the qpf will necessarily be snow for all locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 QPF for only the second system (last three runs of the GFS): Note: Not all the qpf will necessarily be snow for all locations. Great table. Puts things into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS...TTN/Driscoll Bridge/ JFK/OKX/ and south heaviest snowfall axis http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015030312&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=586 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 He means that the heaviest precip is focused over NYC, CNJ and LI The shaft continues up this way, excellent. Another sharp cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Another sharp cutoff? Yes, perfect for those that get enjoyment out of seeing NW folks get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Great table. Puts things into perspective. Thanks. Hopefully, the confluence will come in weaker on the later runs. That would allow for more widespread moderate to heavy precipitation/a less well-defined cutoff in qpf amounts. Right now, I suspect that areas between Newark and White Plains could still see a big shift one way or another. More modest shifts are possible farther up the Hudson Valley. Locations such as Philadelphia and Belmar should do well barring a significant shift in the system's track. Both those locations have been forecast to receive 1" or more qpf on all three runs of the GFS for which I posted the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Rare event for March as snow has this month has been hard to come by lately. It's been nearly 20 years since NYC had a 10"+ March, which seems mind blowing considering we've been smashing every other snow record lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12Z canadian (i know, I know) - portrays my thinking - very sharp cutoff anywhere north of central nj https://twitter.com/myWeatherNJ/status/572800243558981632 Also before people accusing me of choosing the CMC as my model of choice, I've been quite vocal about expecting the heaviest axis of snow to shift south of the city - even received personal messages telling me im a horrible poster.. well, a shift south on the NAM (was expected as it was too amped); a tight cut off on GFS for wave 2 (look at wave 2 only); RGEM, CMC, both further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12Z canadian (i know, I know) - portrays my thinking - very sharp cutoff anywhere north of central nj Just heard UKMET way south to just advisory level snows for coastal CT. Perhaps this is Philadelphia and south central Jersey storm. https://twitter.com/myWeatherNJ/status/572800243558981632 Also before people accusing me of choosing the CMC as my model of choice, I've been quite vocal about expecting the heaviest axis of snow to shift south of the city - even received personal messages telling me im a horrible poster.. well, a shift south on the NAM (was expected as it was too amped); a tight cut off on GFS for wave 2 (look at wave 2 only); RGEM, CMC, both further south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12Z canadian (i know, I know) - portrays my thinking - very sharp cutoff anywhere north of central nj Just heard UKMET way south to just advisory level snows for coastal CT. Perhaps this is Philadelphia and south central Jersey storm. https://twitter.com/myWeatherNJ/status/572800243558981632 Also before people accusing me of choosing the CMC as my model of choice, I've been quite vocal about expecting the heaviest axis of snow to shift south of the city - even received personal messages telling me im a horrible poster.. well, a shift south on the NAM (was expected as it was too amped); a tight cut off on GFS for wave 2 (look at wave 2 only); RGEM, CMC, both further south... Just heard UKMET much further south to just advisory for coastal CT. Perhaps a good Philadelphia to south central Jersey storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET news? yeah it went further south....cut the totals in half for many northern areas. models coming together to agree on a solution of a south central jersey hit. this is pretty rare, huh ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Great for nyc south so NYC seems to be the northern fringe on the models now - hmm... like i said - CNJ/SNJ/Philly jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like models are converging nicely for my area. 4-8" is a good call here for now but I hope things pick up for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 keep model analysis specific please. "great for nyc" doesn't really say anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET looks extremely similar to 0Z, looks like the 1" LE line straytles the Brooklyn shore, that is a bug hit for the city. It gets progressively less as you head north (about .4 for Sussex) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so NYC seems to be the northern fringe on the models now - hmm... like i said - CNJ/SNJ/Philly jackpot Uh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 keep model analysis specific please. "great for nyc" doesn't really say anything Forky what's your thoughts for nyc and nearby burbs for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so NYC seems to be the northern fringe on the models now - hmm... like i said - CNJ/SNJ/Philly jackpot Those areas will lose heaps of QPF to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so NYC seems to be the northern fringe on the models now - hmm... like i said - CNJ/SNJ/Philly jackpot We heard you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Also, the UKMET has tightened the northern extent significantly. Like the GFS, it's the same for the city but less to the north, I think a lot of the south concerns are more a product of the cutoff as opposed to the entire shield shifting south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've noticed whichever model comes out that's newest is the one everyone hugs... The storm could very well go the route of the euro, or the nam.. Or anywhere in between.. Hugging the nam, then then the GFS, the GGEM, then ukmet is idiotic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Just because the trend has been South today doesn't mean that it won't trend back North tomorrow. How many times this Winter have the models been wrong two days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 From what I'm seeing Ukie is atleast 7 inches for the immediate metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We heard you too. Fair enough - I wont reiterate it again, my fault - my call is clear 6-12" SNJ/CNJ/Philly 4-7" NYC metro... we'll see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The confluence seems to be strengthening on some of the models, which is limiting how far north the snow gets and makes a sharp cutoff. I think this is being overplayed somewhat but it's definitely a factor to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Just because the trend has been South today doesn't mean that it won't trend back North tomorrow. How many times this Winter have the models been wrong two days out? This Could go either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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