3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance

[MJO812]

12z Hi Res Nam





WOW

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Majority of the second wave seems rain to me

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

4k nam doesn't change to snow till 4am Thursday morning

[nyblizz44]

12z Hi Res Nam

WOW

Beautiful for NYC & LI & CNJ & PHL. Wishing the guys to the north luck

[EastonSN+]

4k nams not pretty for nw areas

Hanging by a thread in coastal CT

[PB GFI]

Majority of the second wave seems rain to me

For who  Richmond ? 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

For who Richmond ?

Still rain at 1am

[PB GFI]

Still rain at 1am

Please don`t make me do this .

 

NAM KNYC CNJ LI You go from 12 to 1 to 15 to1 

Hour 45 - 8 . 2

Hour 48 - 10 .35

Hour 51 -12 .3

Hour 54 -14  .2 CNJ   .1 Through KNYC  LI 

 

Westchester   You go 15 to1 

Hour 45 - 10 .1 

Hour 48 .-12 .3

Hour 51 - 14 .2 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Please don`t make me do this .

NAM KNYC CNJ LI You go from 12 to 1 to 15 to1

Hour 45 - 8 . 2

Hour 48 - 10 .35

Hour 51 -12 .3

Hour 54 -14 .2 CNJ .1 Through KNYC LI

Westchester You go 15 to1

Hour 45 - 10 .1

Hour 48 .-12 .3

Hour 51 - 14 .2

Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am?

Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking

[WintersGrasp]

Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain :

[PB GFI]

Still rain at 1am

It is - 4 at 850  BL 34 and cold at every layer . It is snowing at 1am 

 

SECS from Philly through KNYC 

[MJO812]

Hi Res Nam is a big hit for NYC and LI. I don't know what he is looking at.

Potentially further south than that.

?

[PB GFI]

Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain :

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425395894.165458.jpg

Don`t be , its a snowstorm right along I95 . And there is still .6 up there at 15 to 1 

[BoulderWX]

NYC will be on the northern fringe of the heaviest snows again IMO - still expecting 3-5" in the city, more just south as you get into central nj, anything over 4 would be my biggest total of the year, but would like just one 6"+ event this year..

[MJO812]

NYC will be on the northern fringe of the heaviest snows again IMO - still expecting 3-5" in the city, more just south as you get into central nj, anything over 4 would be my biggest total of the year, but would like just one 6"+ event this year..

NYC right now isn't on the northern fringe. Every model gives NYC 6+.

[yankeex777]

Are we looking at different models ? I'm confused.....4k Nam looks great for us all. I see a lot of snow and not a lot of rain :

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1425395894.165458.jpg

 

Looks like a TTN -CNJ JP.  6+ area wide is still not a bad forecast though.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all

[wolfie09]

Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am?

Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking

Still confused how this proves the fact the 4knam is still rain at 1am?

Not being sarcastic just legitimately asking

Nws has it changing to snow after 2 am for south central nj..Not unexpected..

[USCG RS]

PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all

That's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps.

[friedmators]

PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all

You said the second wave is mostly rain. Lets move on.

Here's the Edison sounding @ 42.  Does the Hi-RES use the same data or does it calculate new numbers?

[BoulderWX]

NYC right now isn't on the northern fringe. Every model gives NYC 6+.

when all is said and done, I agree right now we are not... completely agree with that.. I'm saying I think we see further adjustments, and again just my opinion

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

That's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps.

That's just an algorithm printing out ptype. The soundings are where you need to look. Then the forecaster makes his /her interpretation. Hope this helps.

Appreciate the non hostile explanation most here seem to lack

Anyway here the total Ptype printouts for the whole 4k run

[PB GFI]

PG, this was what I was asking about, I wasn't questioning whether you were right or not, it shows rain at 1am and snow at 4... Was curious as to why the model would be printing that out then, that's all

I hear ya , but don`t base your forecast off those radar maps .

It is -4 at 850 - at 700 and 34 @ the BL  poss why the algo prob prints out R 

 

Trust me if it will never S in Colts Neck and R in Middletown NY . algo stuff . Check all levels , you will see man .

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

I hear ya , but don`t base your forecast off those radar maps .

It is -4 at 850 - at 700 and 34 @ the BL poss why the algo prob prints out R

Trust me if it will never S in Colts Neck and R in Middletown NY . algo stuff . Check all levels , you will see man .

Thanks appreciate it, I assumed those radar reflectivities were fairly accurate but I guess not lol

[IsentropicLift]

Entire NAM run for JFK

 

150303/2200Z  10  16012KT  30.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   11:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0
150303/2300Z  11  16011KT  30.8F  SNPL    6:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.033    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.04   53| 47|  0
150304/0000Z  12  17011KT  32.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.12    0|  4| 96
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/0100Z  13  17013KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.22    0|  0|100
150304/0200Z  14  18012KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.157    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.38    0|  0|100
150304/0300Z  15  19009KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.54    0|  0|100
150304/0400Z  16  20005KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.164    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.70    0|  0|100
150304/0500Z  17  20007KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.76    0|  0|100
150304/0600Z  18  22011KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.77    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/0700Z  19  23013KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|100
150304/0800Z  20  24013KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0
150304/0900Z  21  24011KT  34.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0
150304/1000Z  22  24009KT  33.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0
150304/1100Z  23  24009KT  33.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0
150304/1200Z  24  25008KT  33.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.78    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/1300Z  25  25007KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  0|100
150304/1400Z  26  26007KT  34.2F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.81    0|  0|100
150304/1500Z  27  24005KT  34.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.83    0|  0|100
150304/1600Z  28  24007KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.84    0|  0|100
150304/1700Z  29  24005KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.90    0|  0|100
150304/1800Z  30  22007KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.93    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150304/1900Z  31  24006KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.97    0|  0|100
150304/2000Z  32  22006KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.98    0|  0|100
150304/2100Z  33  23008KT  36.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.99    0|  0|100
150304/2200Z  34  26006KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.03    0|  0|100
150304/2300Z  35  23005KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.04    0|  0|100
150305/0000Z  36  26005KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.05    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/0100Z  37  25004KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.06    0|  0|100
150305/0200Z  38  25004KT  34.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.08    0|  0|100
150305/0300Z  39  23004KT  34.6F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.12    0|  0|100
150305/0400Z  40  27004KT  34.2F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.14    1| 24| 75
150305/0500Z  41  27005KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.17   24|  0| 76
150305/0600Z  42  29003KT  33.0F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.23   51| 15| 34
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/0700Z  43  32004KT  32.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028    6:1|  0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.26   68|  0| 32
150305/0800Z  44  33005KT  32.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    7:1|  0.7|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.31   84|  0| 16
150305/0900Z  45  34010KT  32.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  1.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.37  100|  0|  0
150305/1000Z  46  35011KT  30.3F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.087    8:1|  1.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0
150305/1100Z  47  34010KT  28.1F  SNOW   11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111    9:1|  3.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.57  100|  0|  0
150305/1200Z  48  34010KT  26.0F  SNOW   11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.110   10:1|  4.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/1300Z  49  34011KT  24.3F  SNOW   10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129   10:1|  5.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.81  100|  0|  0
150305/1400Z  50  33010KT  23.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073   10:1|  6.5|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.89  100|  0|  0
150305/1500Z  51  34008KT  22.2F  SNOW   10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075   10:1|  7.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.96  100|  0|  0
150305/1600Z  52  33009KT  22.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   10:1|  7.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.99  100|  0|  0
150305/1700Z  53  33010KT  22.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   10:1|  7.8|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.01  100|  0|  0
150305/1800Z  54  33009KT  22.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   10:1|  7.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.02  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150305/1900Z  55  34009KT  22.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   10:1|  8.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.04  100|  0|  0
150305/2000Z  56  34010KT  23.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   10:1|  8.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.05  100|  0|  0
150305/2100Z  57  33009KT  22.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   10:1|  8.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.07  100|  0|  0
150305/2200Z  58  33008KT  21.8F  SNOW    4:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   10:1|  8.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.09  100|  0|  0
150305/2300Z  59  33007KT  21.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   10:1|  8.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.10  100|  0|  0
150306/0000Z  60  33008KT  21.3F  SNOW   14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   10:1|  8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
150306/0100Z  61  32008KT  21.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11    0|  0|  0
150306/0200Z  62  32008KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   10:1|  8.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 2.11    0|  0|  0
 

[BoulderWX]

one of these days baltimorewisher8 your expectations of  getting more snow than you expected will  truly disappoint you

haha, can that day be tomorrow?

 

to stay on topi - GFS is colder with wave 1 - gives NNJ - LHV 2-5" through 24 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Numerical printout is 1.0" of rain for LGA....followed by another 1.0+" of snow...

[RU848789]

Is this Sleet or ZR?  For my location @ 12 hours.

Sleet.  Certainly looks like enough warmth at 10,000 to 5000 feet (700 to 850 mb) to melt the falling snow, unless snowfall rates were ridiculously high and they're not supposed to be tonight, and then the rain will fall through 5000 feet of 0 to -5F air, which should be more than enough to freeze the raindrops into sleet. 

 

Minor comment: should ask this in the thread on today's storm, not Thursday's.  

[SnoSki14]

So if that output is correct for JFK, they never get out of the mid 30s even for the warm part of the system.

[IsentropicLift]

Pretty impressive duration to the system. Maybe a 4-5 hour dry slot late tonight before the rain moves in.