weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A few things of note , change the title of this thread as it doesn't do this major winter storm justice . as was originally opined this system has legs and has trended both wetter and colder. Gone are the 700mb issues the NAM had yesterday along with the bust potential of a release SE. This has a ability to put down a wide spread 8 to 12 .This storm gets colder as we get deeper into it so ratios increase on the back end. PB you seem bullish on this one, and that does give me pause, because you seem to know what you are talking about, though you are pretty far from me ( central NJ, I think you are on LI? ) so don't know if you mean area wide. I am in that small spot on the NAM that gets less next SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 PB you seem bullish on this one, and that does give me pause, because you seem to know what you are talking about, though you are pretty far from me ( central NJ, I think you are on LI? ) so don't know if you mean area wide. I am in that small spot on the NAM that gets less next SI. I think we see a lot of 8 inch amounts. Someone gets 12 and where that happens gets sorted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Same here in Middlesex county...I have plowed 8 times since jan 24 Do you do residential work? And do you do landscaping in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gefs crushes the ares. Sref also. Should be a great day of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gefs crushes the ares. Sref also. Should be a great day of model watching. Gave my plowing days up in 96. I sold my truck and plow and swore never to do again. 14hrs, 2hr break 24hrs, 4 hr break, 16 hrs, 6 hr break, 10hrs 9 hr break 6hrs plowing. That was just the 3ft storm. Picked up a lot of new work that others did not do. Made $36K on one lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Have fun those of you who get the heavy stuff. We North of 84 look to get shafted once again. We have been nickeled and dimed to death this winter and I am done. I welcome Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Have fun those of you who get the heavy stuff. We North of 84 look to get shafted once again. We have been nickeled and dimed to death this winter and I am done. I welcome Spring! dont write us off yet dude.. Nam is still in favor of us lol.. Gefs and srefs are very wet for swf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 9z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anthony, that map is missing a part of the storm, do the 24 hour total from Thursday afternoon and the .75 line is over you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 9z SREF Even though the SREFS %$^& this is where the heaviest snow axis should be with this S down towards the Philly area . The NAM is just to far NW with an arctic wave . I still think we see a lot of 8s but the double digit totals may be off to the SW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW - Upton and Mt Holly are not that impressed with this storm. Looks like they are going for 3 to 7 inches for all. I'm not sure what models they are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think safe bet is 4-8 NYC ..I believe by tonight oz NWS may issue watches ...or maybe by 12z ...we shall see .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah the SREFs south of last one.....the 3z run seemed further north than the other models with that heavier band (had it right through our areas).....9z brings it back down into SNJ to match the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah the SREFs south of last one.....the 3z run seemed further north than the other models with that heavier band (had it right through our areas).....9z brings it back down into SNJ to match the other models Not that much south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Even though the SREFS %$^& this is where the heaviest snow axis should be with this S down towards the Philly area . The NAM is just to far NW with an arctic wave . I still think we see a lot of 8s but the double digit totals may be off to the SW . Beautiful subtropical moisture El Nino feed there. Nino 4 just hit the warmest reading since the 09-10 El Nino this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 dont write us off yet dude.. Nam is still in favor of us lol.. Gefs and srefs are very wet for swf Keeping some hope, but not really expecting more than 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NWS discussion relevant to the possible 3/4-5 system: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAMSHORTWAVES PHASING AND DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIESINTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...INTERACTING WITH A SW USLOW...AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE US TO EAST COAST BYTHURSDAY NIGHT. SBU ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY INDICATING THATECMWF/CMC/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT ARE IN GOODAGREEMENT FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU TIME PERIOD...WITH ARELATIVELY LOW MEMBER SPREAD...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TODIFFERENCES IN INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH SWLOW.HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTMOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WED EVE WITH FALLING TEMPS WED NIGHT. ASERIES OF WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TRACKING NETHROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXISAND AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF A175-200KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR 1/3 TO1 INCH OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP TAPS INTO AMOIST SW FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PAC.MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOLING THROUGHTHE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER OF PRECIP FROM RAIN IN THE EARLYEVE TO WINTRY MIX THEN SNOW FROM NW TO SE. ALL AREAS APPEAR TO BEMAINLY SNOW BY 06Z. NAM APPEARS TO BE OUTLIER WITH A WARM LAYER AT700MB WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET THROUGH THEOVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY ATTIMES LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING BASED ON STRONG JET DYNAMICSAND MODEST 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LINGERING LIGHT SNOWTAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHAPPROACHES AND OFFSHORE STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.SO POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST FOR 6+ INCHES OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTOTHU...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. Considering that the last 6" or greater snowfall in March in NYC occurred on March 1-2, 2009 and that there have only been 5 such storms since 1970, this is a quite bullish idea. Details, of course, have yet to be resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not that much south9z plumes are around 5" for much of the area. 3z was around 10" and overall the precip shield was juicier.....but I think something was wrong with that run anyway. (Plus the SREFs are terrible in general).....looks like a nice 4-7" if I had to take a guess right now with 7-10" off to our south. I'd gladly take that as a nice way to close out this cold, snowy period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Keeping some hope, but not really expecting more than 3-6. I'm expecting 3-6" for both events 6-12" total...granted a lot of that will be compressed with the inevitable turn over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm expecting 3-6" for both events 6-12" total...granted a lot of that will be compressed with the inevitable turn over The significant icing will help preserve the pack even further, though 40s and sun next week will make it melt pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think safe bet is 4-8 NYC ..I believe by tonight oz NWS may issue watches ...or maybe by 12z ...we shall see .. IMO this winter to say "safe bet" this far out is is risky proposition at best - have to remember this is a very dynamic situation setting up and depends totally on timing as percip is moving in and colder air is moving in at the same time - where exactly to they end up mixing at just the right time to produce optimal results ? That question IMO cannot be answered yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Considering that the last 6" or greater snowfall in March in NYC occurred on March 1-2, 2009 and that there have only been 5 such storms since 1970, this is a quite bullish idea. Details, of course, have yet to be resolved. That March storm was really nice. Got 10 inches from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IMO this winter to say "safe bet" this far out is is risky proposition at best - have to remember this is a very dynamic situation setting up and depends totally on timing as percip is moving in and colder air is moving in at the same time - where exactly to they end up mixing at just the right time to produce optimal results ? That question IMO cannot be answered yetI agree ; guess one step at a time let's see where models are by tonight oz suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 12z NAM looks like it will be South, but we all know this model does funny things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 12z NAM looks like it will be South, but we all know this model does funny things Nam seems about the same to me.. I'm only to 36hr tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well it's actually North with the rain on Wednesday. It was South with the first system so I expected this system to be further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM turns light rain over to light mix/snow by about 7pm-8pm tomorrow evening in N NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nams a big hit for NYC and LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam is coming in less phased than other runs. Looks good at 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Great hit at 48 hour. Much colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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