Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Def more snow on the first wave so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep nam further north both waves...nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Way NW with the second storm, 75 mile shift, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 nam is a good amount further north this run with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Heavy snow tomorrow afternoon for coast with moderate snow back to NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Out to 16z still thumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 compare the 12z at hr 21 to 18z at hour 15 big improvement for nyc and areas slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Big shift north. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Please, please let AllSnow and me handle the PBP. More than that just confuses people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 All the people that cliff jumped are climbing back up the cliff with this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It was obvious by hour 12 that the second system would be further North. One more bump North and we're talking widespread higher totals than what's currently on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:55 PM, Zelocita Weather said: Richmond is 60F and the Carolinas are in the 70's right now. Lot of warm air/moisture to work with on this one...Mid 60s here in central Texas, dew point about the same. Lots of low clouds and drizzle all day. This will make plenty of rain/snow wherever it gets lifted up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:05 PM, IsentropicLift said: It was obvious by hour 12 that the second system would be further North. One more bump North and we're talking widespread higher totals than what's currently on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:04 PM, dmillz25 said: All the people that cliff jumped are climbing back up the cliff with this NAM run. It's was the outlier to begin with...just falling back in line. No one should have jumped to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is a laughable model, not sure why people were latching onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 could possibly give boston their snowfall record if is verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Haven't seen this mentioned so I'll point out that SGZ temps are garbage. Temps don't drop below -10C until 15z at LGA, and by then only lighter snows are left for the NYC metro. Another tamper on higher totals. I don't think NYC gets past 6" with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A big shift north with less than 12 hours before the storm starts. None of the models have been good this year.You have to feel for the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The nam is such a consistent model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:08 PM, snowman19 said: The nam is such a consistent model... Keep in mind tho.. However bad it may have been.. It was the northern outlier... Then caved to southern solution now most are ticking back North... Very inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:06 PM, jm1220 said: The NAM is a laughable model, not sure why people were latching onto it. Because now it's closer to showing people what they want.. and it still shows 3-6 state wide for NJ as well as LI and NYC... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:09 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Keep in mind tho.. However bad it may have been.. It was the northern outlier... Then caved to southern solution now most are ticking back North... Very inconsistentIt consistently sucks. Fickle as the summer wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Really no two waves on the NAM anymore jsut a gradually sinking south swath of snow. 0.75" line makes it to/just past EWR, 1" to Driscoll Bridge, majority of the QPF would be snow....maybe 0.1" LE lost to mix/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well you're never supposed to hug one model, you always go with the consensus and again no one would say crap about how bad the models are if it was rain. These shifts happen all the time during the warm season under 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:12 PM, snowman19 said: It consistently sucks. Fickle as the summer wind Which model isn't tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 8:14 PM, SnoSki14 said: Well you're never supposed to hug one model, you always go with the consensus and again no one would say crap about how bad the models are if it was rain. These shifts happen all the time during the warm season under 24 hrs. I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKIE GEM RGEM GEFS SREF NAM EURO all show 6 and 6 plus now at KNYC . More S and SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I must be looking at a different nam model. total precip looks about the same from 12 Z to 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So far the NAM has gone from big hit and further north, to pretty big hit and further north, to very far south and now back to an ok hit of 3-5" for many of us. When we refer to it as a "huge shift north", it's not exactly a big hit nor was the last run a big miss.....it just had one of its usual blips at 12z and is now back to the regular schedule program, with a more reasonable amount of snow in line with other guidance, although much less than it showed before (as in yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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