Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So a 1am-2am changeover timeframe for NENJ/NYC. Then we thump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:15 PM, Pamela said: Well, they didn't have fancy computer graphics in those days...but I assure you...that's how it was. On second glance...those old maps do not look incredibly far removed from what's going on. Well considering that it was a year and a half before I was born, I will take your word for it. That April and May featured many flooding rainstorms, another connection between 1984, 2010 and 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How much is lost in that changeover period where it has trouble sticking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:16 PM, IsentropicLift said: Looks like the SREF mean stayed nearly identical for 95% of the area. Just a bit drier for for NW sections (Sullivan County, Western Orange County) It's better for NYC and LI. .75" line moved north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 .75"+ falls from mounmouth south, 6z thur through 6z fri.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:25 PM, ag3 said: It's better for NYC and LI. .75" line moved north. It's better for everyone, but it's about a 15 mile shift North. I was going off the crappy NCEP site since for some reason that's always the first source to update the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I weather no two systems are the same. It is much like a fingerprint, and that makes weather so interesting. You know, but not really know exactly what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:10 PM, IsentropicLift said: I think the rain today and tonight is going to over-perform based on current radar. What a slug of moisture It feels like a muggy warm soup down here today-this airmass has plenty of juice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:31 PM, Mohawkvalley said: .75"+ falls from mounmouth south, 6z thur through 6z fri.. Plumes show 9.17" at kblm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: It's better for everyone, but it's about a 15 mile shift North. I was going off the crappy NCEP site since for some reason that's always the first source to update the SREF. Doug's and Earthlight's site updates before Ncep and he has much better maps: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/indexsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 New HRRR continues to further delay the changeover for Southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:35 PM, jm1220 said: It feels like a muggy warm soup down here today-this airmass has plenty of juice for sure. Decent El Nino subtropical moisture feed on this one as the NINO 4 SST's just hit warmest level in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:34 PM, IsentropicLift said: It's better for everyone, but it's about a 15 mile shift North. I was going off the crappy NCEP site since for some reason that's always the first source to update the SREF. The 1.00" line is getting mighty close too. Not to take seriously, maybe the NAM will join the party now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:34 PM, Mitchel Volk said: I weather no two systems are the same. It is much like a fingerprint, and that makes weather so interesting. You know, but not really know exactly what will happen. I didn't mean it was the exact same thing....the use of the colloquialism "carbon copy" was not meant to imply that...if that was what you read into it...my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would say that the longer it takes the changover to complete the better we're going to end up with the second wave. Just a thought because the reason why the second wave goes south is because the boundary sinks south taking the best lift with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:40 PM, IsentropicLift said: I would say that the longer it takes the changover to complete the better we're going to end up with the second wave. Just a thought because the reason why the second wave goes south is because the boundary sinks south taking the best lift with it. Problem with that thinking is that you're tempting fate. I would actually prefer to changeover quicker than expected, then take my chances after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting looking at the plumes there are three members that have the changeover later and give LGA up to 13" of snow. In addition some of the quicker changeover time also has some hefty snowfalls. So there are two scenarios that could give NYC more snow. 1) warmer air hangs in sending the second wave further north or 2) Colder air moves in faster letting the first wave to have more snow.or course there are some that give NYC less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:46 PM, Mitchel Volk said: Interesting looking at the plumes there are three members that have the changeover later and give LGA up to 13" of snow. In addition some of the quicker changeover time also has some hefty snowfalls. So there are two scenarios that could give NYC more snow. 1) warmer air hangs in sending the second wave further north or 2) Colder air moves in faster letting the first wave to have more snow.or course there are some that give NYC less. At this point it's a crap shoot, as either of your scenarios can work, or with something in the middle we could get some from both waves (which could prove better of worse). Gut says RGEM, EURO, GFS are right that all areas in NJ see a pretty uniform 5-8" with some combo of the two.... I don't think any area will ' double up' or completely miss on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:45 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Problem with that thinking is that you're tempting fate. I would actually prefer to changeover quicker than expected, then take my chances after that. Well I'm on the northern fringe of the second event so I need some last minute North shift to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Radar exploding over SE PA. I don't know what any of this really means because I don't recall this showing up on any of the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM looks slower so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I never got my ? answered earlier in regards to the location of the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Less compressed precip filed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Richmond is 60F and the Carolinas are in the 70's right now. Lot of warm air/moisture to work with on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It may appear to be a bit drier in some places but that's because when you expand the area of lift it's less focused over one area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 In any event, the moderate snow makes it to Northern Orange and Sullivan Counties instead of High Point on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Also the second system in the Eastern Ohio Valley is already North of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's my call for CT. I have a nervous feeling about this, felt much more confident that the last two storms would over perform and they did. This one just "feels" like an underperformer to me. But that's not using meteorology. So with that said, using all guidance available and meteorology heres what I came up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 7:50 PM, IsentropicLift said: Radar exploding over SE PA. I don't know what any of this really means because I don't recall this showing up on any of the modeling. It means I'm probably coming home to my whole yard underwater.... Aside from that I'm not sure. Regarding your point on the timing of the front I think it works out better for anyone from Philly North to have the front delay a bit and allow for the good stuff to come northward even if you lose some initially to taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam is a thump so far Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.