Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:43 PM, IsentropicLift said: It's perfectly correct, the RGEM flips those areas over to snow faster, then precip is starting to taper by the time the coast flips over, and the second wave glances them. Should make for an intersting time tonight depending on when the change over occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:52 PM, Animal said: Should make for an intersting time tonight depending on when the change over occurs. NW areas should flip around 9-10PM and coastal areas 3-4 hrs later, from NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:51 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: UlsterCountySnowZ, on 04 Mar 2015 - 10:51 AM, said:Rap and HRRR drop 3" for nyc and long island in less than 3hrs between 1am and 3am I hope its right this time. Lately, its been so unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12 Z total liquid through hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Where are all the GFS bridge jumpers now? It just clearly caved to the other guidance there. Like many of us were saying it would. Junk model inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the GFS total precip... I'm sure people are gonna attack me for saying this but I don't see 4-8" area wide... GFS looks 3-6" tops, less North, more South... to me and saying 4-8" is once again misleading....remember ALL of this precip doesn't fall as snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gfs is about 3-6 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 3.5 nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:57 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Here's the GFS total precip... I'm sure people are gonna attack me for saying this but I don't see 4-8" area wide... GFS looks 3-6" tops, less North, more South... to me and saying 4-8" is once again misleading....remember ALL of this precip doesn't fall as snow... It's 4-6 on Sv maps...less north by you. Prob sleet included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 High res GFS snowmap agrees with a general screw zone near the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:59 PM, Allsnow said: It's 4-6 on Sv maps...less north by you. Prob sleet included Agreed... I just don't see the need to throw numbers as high as 8" out there like we ALWAYS do when it's not shown lol.... Not you btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Guys this was 50 and Rain 7 days ago . If 3 to 6 falls and you called it 36 hours out , please don`t pound your chest . Some of you are so late to this threat then want to take credit for seeing " 3 to 6 " Where were some of you guys 5 days ago ? Nowhere . So please turn it down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:08 PM, IsentropicLift said: With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwedseems southern westchester is the spot, just like every other time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:04 PM, IsentropicLift said: Yea baby..look at that snow over my town! Love this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:08 PM, IsentropicLift said: With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwedOr the first band is a touch colder and the second a hair north, then you'd get pretty universal amounts, it's a TINY screw zone (it's not like a transferring coastal where you know for sure someone's getting screwed) but we'll see. Either way, I'll sign up for the 3 inch "screw zone" any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:10 PM, Animal said: Yea baby..look at that snow over my town! Love this model On 3/4/2015 at 3:27 PM, ag3 said: Rgem is really not that bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:08 PM, IsentropicLift said: With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwed *Raises hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:11 PM, mob1 said: Or the first band is a touch colder and the second a hair north, then you'd get pretty universal amounts, it's a TINY screw zone (it's not like a transferring coastal where you know for sure someone's getting screwed) but we'll see. Either way, I'll sign up for the 3 inch "screw zone" any day. Most people around here don't think like you though. I know that if everyone around me got 6-8" and I had 3" I would feel shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:12 PM, Blizzard-on-GFS said: *Raises hand I can't belive I went overnight from the models showing me getting 8-12", to now 3-5". You're in Western Atlantic County/Burlington County area correct? You will do quite well with round 2, and that should be the more robust wave anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:04 PM, PB GFI said: Guys this was 50 and Rain 7 days ago . If 3 to 6 falls and you called it 36 hours out , please don`t pound your chest . Some of you are so late to this threat then want to take credit for seeing " 3 to 6 " Where were some of you guys 5 days ago ? Nowhere . So please turn it down . Who? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:08 PM, IsentropicLift said: With the first wave shifting North and the Second wave shifting South, someone in the middle is going to get screwed The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 3:38 PM, snowman19 said: This looks like 2-3 for nyc and 1-2 north of the city imo Believe it or not, and this is in slight contrast to my initial post above, there is a way that NW of NYC can do better than NYC proper because they switch to snow earlier in first wave... and the GFS/RGEM show this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:17 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The reality of the situation though with the two waves being so close is that if wave 1 goes north so should wave two, the first wave isn't a dynamic system that would pull the boundary south, if anything it slows it up and keeps it north, it's possible the models are having trouble again because of two different features following so closely. Well if that's the case then all bets are off, I never really understood why the models were pushing the second wave so far South. It's not like you have a strong blocking high to the North or a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:15 PM, IsentropicLift said: You're in Western Atlantic County/Burlington County area correct? You will do quite well with round 2, and that should be the more robust wave anyway. No I'm actually in the other hamilton haha! Mercer County. My totals got more than cut in half over night, I thought I was finally a lock for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:21 PM, IsentropicLift said: Well if that's the case then all bets are off, I never really understood why the models were pushing the second wave so far South. It's not like you have a strong blocking high to the North or a -NAO. I think this is what happened with the overnight snow 2 weeks ago, every model was 50-75 miles too far south with it at 6-12 hours out because a system had preceded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 4:22 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I think this is what happened with the overnight snow 2 weeks ago, every model was 50-75 miles too far south with it at 6-12 hours out because a system had preceded it. Correct. RGEM was the only one showing the further north solution and schooled every other model if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Canadian looks good, I hate those mm maps but it looks to add up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Canadian also is way better than the GFS for the second wave, at 33 it looks like close to .20 for NYC for that alone. It shows how you'd get rid of that screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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