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3/4 - 3/5 Post-Frontal Snow Chance


Capt. Adam

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  On 3/4/2015 at 2:35 AM, Allsnow said:

Looks like thetrials/4dvar will miss out on this one....better luck next year

Looks like the NAM jackpots you here!!.....although jackpotting on the NAM is like receiving a call from telling you that you won an all expenses paid trip

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  On 3/4/2015 at 2:47 AM, BlizzardNYC said:

and the trolling continues

deleted that post because it was poorly expressive of my thoughts... but I fully stand by my reply to blizzard on gfs

 

anyway, will just observe from here on out, my call below is on record.

 

---

 

So, we basically agree fully based on what I posted several minutes before this post (See below). BUT another 10-20 mile shift from the NAMS depiction (which is all I was saying) and we're talking about a very different story for the NYC area..

 

I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling?

 

6-12 phill/cnj/snj 

 

if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous.

 

my calls arent off verbatim model outputs. 

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Guest Pamela
  On 3/4/2015 at 2:50 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

These events always have big cutoffs, see 2/2/96 which was a similar idea, hardly anything fell in EPA yet parts of SRN NJ had 18 inches

Saw the map on page 743 of the Kocin book...what a delightful gradient that turned NE to include LI & the Cape.  Another Iron Rule of Forecasting:  If central NJ gets big snows, it is very rare for Long Island to miss out.

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  On 3/4/2015 at 2:43 AM, Doorman said:

Max Po FTW

 

I am all in...... :pimp:

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

 

 

 

min baseline

http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png

 

I liked 8 all day and 12 S and W  , I am going to hang with that   .4 at the CT coast line , so there is a gradient to this  on the NAM . The hope is it expands N a bit ,

 

One thing to note Hours 30 - 36 you are prob snowing at a 10 to 1 ratio but by hour 39 850`s have crashed to -14  and  by hour 51 its  -18 at 850 .

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NAM about 5 miles further south.  So basically no change, an interesting thing is that the last wave is stronger, I like to see how the RGEM and GFS handles this last wave.  Currently the models predict a strong sheering vort max, I am thinking that the NAM is sheering it a little less so last wave is stronger. if this trend continues then there is a slim possibility that the precipitation max may start a north trend.  This slim possibility and it will not really be known until tomorrow Z run.

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  On 3/4/2015 at 3:05 AM, Mitchel Volk said:

NAM about 5 miles further south.  So basically no change, an interesting thing is that the last wave is stronger, I like to see how the RGEM and GFS handles this last wave.  Currently the models predict a strong sheering vort max, I am thinking that the NAM is sheering it a little less so last wave is stronger. if this trend continues then there is a slim possibility that the precipitation max may start a north trend.  This slim possibility and it will not really be known until tomorrow Z run.

looked further than a 5 mile shift up this way. we cant spare anymore 5 mile shifts lol

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  On 3/4/2015 at 3:15 AM, RowanBrandon said:

Compare the 18z snow map to the 0z snow map. Much more than a 5 mile shift. Have no idea where that is coming from.

CONUS1_MESO-NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KU

CONUS1_NAM212_SFC_ACCUM-SNOWFALL-KUCHERA

That's just the northern precip being squashed. Shrinking of the QPF field.
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Have been away from the internet for hours and just was watching News12NJ and they ran a simulated precip loop that looked to have little to no snow at all north of about a Lambertville to Staten Island line, with a voice over that this would be a South Jersey/Philly storm.  Any idea what model they're hugging?  Nobody else seems to be saying such things on this thread (sure less to the north of NYC, but not a miss for NYC completely, as implied by their loop).  I don't typically put much stock in those folks, but was curious.  

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