Capt. Adam Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 72 hours out and enough models on board for PB's 3rd wave to have its own thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 New NAM 6-12" for all of the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 New NAM 6-12" for all of the area... Grain of salt as it is outside limit but an indicator of something big. GFS in 1 hr will tell bigger tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm really worried about this one ending up just a bit too far South. The seasonal trend has been for models to be to far North in the day 4 range and right now we're right on the Northern edge of the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 For me this is a bonus end of the season event. If it happens then great, but if it doesn't then that's okay too we'll warm up a couple days after anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm really worried about this one ending up just a bit too far South. The seasonal trend has been for models to be to far North in the day 4 range and right now we're right on the Northern edge of the heaviest precip.I agree, however, this is a different set up within a breaking down pattern. EPO is also forecast to be just about neutral. This could have huge implications in terms of allowing the storm to ride a bit further north as well as the NAO looks to be trending near neutral, just enough to slow the progression of this frontal passage. South Ridge looks like it's going to rear it's head as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I agree, however, this is a different set up within a breaking down pattern. EPO is also forecast to be just about neutral. This could have huge implications in terms of allowing the storm to ride a bit further north as well as the NAO looks to be trending near neutral, just enough to slow the progression of this frontal passage. South Ridge looks like it's going to rear it's head as well. The biggest PNA drop since the fall is helping our cause by pumping the SE Ridge and keeping the Arctic boundary far enough north for snow here. But it wouldn't be a surprise for the NYC Metro LI Region and south to do better than the far NW burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM has trended south. GEM north. Let's see where GFS goes. Did EUR trend south too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM has trended south. GEM north. Let's see where GFS goes. Did EUR trend south too? The 12Z RGEM is definitely south a bit from the GGEM at 60 last night but it would probably be some sort of hit...the Euro went north from where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 12Z RGEM is definitely south a bit from the GGEM at 60 last night but it would probably be some sort of hit...the Euro went north from where it was. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Go with the seasonal trends and you probably won't go wrong. What has happened with every event/low/overrunning setup this year? It started north, trended south. What has happened with every arctic outbreak/arctic high pressure this year? It's overperformed and the models have missed the cold push/cad. The trend is there, but it's not your friend unless you're in NYC itself and possibly south of NYC for this one imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12Z NAM much like the 6Z, but with a bit more QPF. 1.00 to 1.25 inches QPF for the region mostly snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Too bad looks to possibly be the last one too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Let's see what the GFS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Too bad looks to possibly be the last one too At least it would be biggest snow of season for NYC and west...as depicted on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Big hit on the GFS, way better than 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Big hit on the GFS, way better than 06Z.That it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The fact the GFS has had a massive SE bias on most of the weather systems the last few weeks makes you wonder if last night's UKMET is onto something, I did not see totals but some people with access to it said it had 12+ near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS caves to the other models. Good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The fact the GFS has had a massive SE bias on most of the weather systems the last few weeks makes you wonder if last night's UKMET is onto something, I did not see totals but some people with access to it said it had 12+ near NYC I'll post totals in a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The fact the GFS has had a massive SE bias on most of the weather systems the last few weeks makes you wonder if last night's UKMET is onto something, I did not see totals but some people with access to it said it had 12+ near NYCYup, especially the shore to Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The fact the GFS has had a massive SE bias on most of the weather systems the last few weeks makes you wonder if last night's UKMET is onto something, I did not see totals but some people with access to it said it had 12+ near NYCit's close to a foot yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gfs is a good hit but still a bit South for my liking, Central and Southern Jersey get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nam is 100+ miles north of gfs, let's see how far the GFS moves north at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 00z UKMET totals for both events, 2-4" for the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nam is 100+ miles north of gfs, let's see how far the GFS moves north at 18zI'm more interested in what the ukmet, ggem and euro do today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm more interested in what the ukmet, ggem and euro do today The euro could show 24" or 2" I won't take it serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS looks about 6-10 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS looks about 6-10 for the city.Onto the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The euro could show 24" or 2" I won't take it seriousLol true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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