Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 really nice run haha. All nighter coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Obligatory: parsing the specifics of an incorrect result from a model at range is a futile exercise. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 CoD is fast with soundings for those who don't use it http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Nice. Haven't seen that site. I agree it's snow by 6z. Soundings look colder than IWM for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 really nice run haha. All nighter coming! Climbing...we're at sea level now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nice. Haven't seen that site. I agree it's snow by 6z. Soundings look colder than IWM for whatever reason. It would be ripping snow as well. Raw surface is upper 20's nw and just at freezing along 95 @ 1am. By 7am temps are in the upper teens to around 20. Heavy wet to heavy dry snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Nice. Haven't seen that site. I agree it's snow by 6z. Soundings look colder than IWM for whatever reason. For some reason a concern is that the cold is mostly coming over the mountains rather than dropping in more north to south like the good flip last year. Probably doesn't matter a huge ton but some of the heaviest is early so we don't want to push off the flip any longer than necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Woah QPF on the UKIE http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GGEM is late on the flip. Around 7am from what I can see but still dumps a widespread 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Woah QPF on the UKIEThe amount of moisture this storm is going to put down gets more impressive with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 per sounding from the site Ian posted: BWI is below freezing at all levels by 6z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Canadian looks a bit north which delays switch time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ukie is warm though? Still rain @ 7am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The flip looks like it's right at 7am, with temps crashing fast http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thursday will be my birthday. I'll be 63, so I'm thinking I expect at least 63 mm of snow. That equals 2.48031". Of course a foot or more would be an excellent present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ukie is warm though? Still rain @ 7am? Ukie is warm though? Still rain @ 7am? Looks like it... the meteogram shows 0c 850s at 12z THUR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like it... the meteogram shows 0c 850s at 12z THUR... Similar to the GGEM. I won't have regional high res precip for a couple hours. Looks like it would still dump a bunch of precip beyond 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 So this storm is going to eliminate my snowpack and then immediately replace it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Obligatory: parsing the specifics of an incorrect result from a model at range is a futile exercise. Carry on. I think at this point in the game, you have to look at and even parse specifics to get an idea of how the event is going to unfold. We're probably a little too deep in minutia right now, but I don't think anyone is suggesting anything is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Similar to the GGEM. I won't have regional high res precip for a couple hours. Looks like it would still dump a bunch of precip beyond 12z. I was thinking even though the UKMET is warm in the AM, it would really rip after the flip from the looks of the precip. map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So this storm is going to eliminate my snowpack and then immediately replace it? March storm taketh, March storm giveth back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seems like UKMET, NAM, and GGEM are all later in general with precip, not just with the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seems like UKMET, NAM, and GGEM are all later in general with precip, not just with the flip. Well, for the post-flip precip, yes. In all the models so far in this 12Z suite, there is good precip accompanying the flip. The GFS has the earliest flip so far, but also ends appreciable precip the earliest (only an inch or two after 12Z for the metro areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS at 72 Yeah its Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 CoD is fast with soundings for those who don't use it http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Great site, thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 wet, sloppy, heavy no fun to shovel snow...similar to recent march events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah its slower to change than op tho.. not sure it's any better overall. might only be half snow in that panel around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 slower to change than op tho.. not sure it's any better overall. We shall see what the individ's have... out to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 slower to change than op tho.. not sure it's any better overall. might only be half snow in that panel around DC.Don't worry I'm just toying with yoder. Its alright lots of qpf which is not a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 We want big QPF. We get screwed on events like this when the rates never materialize and we get light non-sticking wet snow for 12 hours with multiple drizzle lulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.