Random Chaos Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Look at the moisture feed into this thing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So it certainly seems to me that it is surprisingly colder longer than expected and this ice event is way more impressive than we thought. My street is a sheet of black ice. Way more slippery than Saturday. I wonder if that will have any bearing on the next storm. Maybe an earlier flip to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the current forecast there is indicating some uncertainty in the timing of the cold air and the transitions from rain/sleet to snow. No doubt at least the MD lower eastern shore portion of their forecast area will see watches by morning. Other than maybe the NAM, all models show 4 inch+ potential there. I would also think their Louisa, Fluvanna, Caroline, Goochland, Hanover, Westmoreland county corridor would have Watches before not too long as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So it certainly seems to me that it is surprisingly colder longer than expected and this ice event is way more impressive than we thought. My street is a sheet of black ice. Way more slippery than Saturday. I wonder if that will have any bearing on the next storm. Maybe an earlier flip to snow? Possibly, it's actually been warmer here. I could see someone getting crushed when the cold front stalls, it really depends where it stalls, you will find 12" + in those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Textbook atmospheric river on the water vapor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_river An atmospheric river is a narrow corridor or filament of concentrated moisture in the atmosphere. Atmospheric rivers consist of narrow bands of enhanced water vapor transport, typically along the boundaries between large areas of divergent surface air flow, including some frontal zones in association with extratropical cyclones that form over the oceans.[1][2][3][4] The term was originally coined by researchers Reginald Newell and Young Zhu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the early 1990s, to reflect the narrowness of the moisture plumes involved.[1][3][5] Atmospheric rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one can carry a greater flux of water than the Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[2] There are typically 3–5 of these narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time. Atmospheric rivers have a central role in the global water cycle. On any given day, atmospheric rivers account for over 90% of the global meridional (north-south) water vapor transport, yet they cover less than 10% of the Earth's circumference.[2] They also are the major cause of extreme precipitation events which cause severe flooding in many mid-latitude, westerly coastal regions of the world, including the West Coast of North America,[6][7][8][9] western Europe,[10][11][12] and the west coast of North Africa.[3] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 wxbell maps update every hour but i think most changes are less frequent.. perhaps some offices are changing at any given time? it's from the national digital forecast database so there's probably some documentation somewhere. wider view shows bigger disagreements in other places. Thank you Ian for posting the wider view to include RIC. Just now reading the thread and was about PM Yoda asking if you guys could post a wider view of the NCEP to include RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the mother of all water vapor loops.....enjoy http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the mother of all water vapor loops.....enjoy http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ This plus cold air = more than models can handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 While we wait for the NAM to **** the bed, might as well look at the 18z NAVGEM, which looks good (yes, everyone breathe a sigh of relief with the NAVGEM on board). 850s cross DC at 6z and ~1" of precip falls after that so a lot of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the mother of all water vapor loops.....enjoy http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ All abord the pineapple express. Damn.. beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 wxbell maps update every hour but i think most changes are less frequent.. perhaps some offices are changing at any given time? it's from the national digital forecast database so there's probably some documentation somewhere. wider view shows bigger disagreements in other places. looking at this map it is apparent that NWS Blacksburg has not 'bought' into the storm yet....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 21z SREFs are wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 21Z SREF have come a touch south once again. good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the mother of all water vapor loops.....enjoy http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/SPN/WV/ I always love looking at the WV loops. Look at that push of arctic air just hitting the Great Lakes in that loop as well. It seems to be pushing very well so far. I like this one as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 looking at this map it is apparent that NWS Blacksburg has not 'bought' into the storm yet....... They might want to 'buy' soon. Models are trending nicely for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 QPF will only go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 QPF will only go up What is your limit on how high they will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I always love looking at the WV loops. Look at that push of arctic air just hitting the Great Lakes in that loop as well. It seems to be pushing very well so far. I like this one as well: That's one nice looking WV loop! Players shaping up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Some of the 21z SREFs members are over 1" p/h snow rates for 3 hrs straight after 12z THUR Mean at DCA is 5.5" 5 members have total QPF of over 2" for the entire "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 QPF will only go upUp from what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am guessing we are going to see some people freaking out tomorrow on the high temps. Morgantown, WV is 54 degrees right now. It is going to warm up tomorrow for sure. I wonder how high it goes before the plunge begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 QPF will only go up Seems the evolution has morphed a bit. Originally it was being modeled as a cohesive band that was going to be heavy rain to snow. The shift with holding back the final piece of energy just a few hours and ejecting it has changed the landscape (for the better imo). Matt said it nicely earlier. Cold gets here first before the main slug and then gets attacked. This was a very favorable shift for area in the central and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am guessing we are going to see some people freaking out tomorrow on the high temps. Morgantown, WV is 54 degrees right now. It is going to warm up tomorrow for sure. I wonder how high it goes before the plunge begins. Hopefully warm enough to cause thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am guessing we are going to see some people freaking out tomorrow on the high temps. Morgantown, WV is 54 degrees right now. It is going to warm up tomorrow for sure. I wonder how high it goes before the plunge begins. I can see it happening and hear the chatter. I'm getting my car detailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am guessing we are going to see some people freaking out tomorrow on the high temps. Morgantown, WV is 54 degrees right now. It is going to warm up tomorrow for sure. I wonder how high it goes before the plunge begins. There will be a ton of "my forecast high was 52 and I'm up to 56 - storm cancel" posts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 figures we would get our best storm now.....best ENSO warmth is at and just slightly east of the dateline, the best spot for the MA if memory serves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 now I find this incredible (this is just for kicks so no one jump all over me) the 18Z GFS at 24 hrs. 850 temps line up perfectly in our area (DCA/BWI) with the 0Z RAP at 18 hrs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=018ℑ=data%2Frap%2F00%2Frap_namer_018_precip_p01.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=precip_p01&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150304+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They don't like the GFS dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Within OP range instead of ensembles, but for the heck of it, I checked the 12z EPS for DCA and it shows 7" on the means. Locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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