Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Already counting on it True, the NAM always sucks. :< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 True, the NAM always sucks. :< 0z will mark the beginning of it's crawl out of the corner and back to momma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Another ver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Neat to see the differences between LWX and CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW, 18z GEFS mean total snow accumulation Days 1-4 is tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Neat to see the differences between LWX and CTP. One of the great issues of our time.. getting agreement at CWA borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW, 18z GEFS mean total snow accumulation Days 1-4 is tasty Post it up for me yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Post it up for me yoder. http://www.americanwx.com/wow/model_center/get_orig_img.php?model=gfsens&run_time=18z&run_hour=96&map=US¶m=96hoursnow&init=&valid=&ts=2015030 Hope thats okay to post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Another ver Might have missed it, but what exactly is this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Might have missed it, but what exactly is this map?NWS forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Another ver There must be a million models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 One of the great issues of our time.. getting agreement at CWA borders. It's a challenge for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's a challenge for sure.It has seemed better lately. Every now and then there's a really weird one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NWS forecast Ah that's pretty cool, is it updated often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 perhaps, I did get a ton of 2" type snows on the southern fringe of the storms that crushed the northeast. But honestly you can keep them, for me the total is irrelavent its HOW you get to the total. I would take a year with 20" that had a 12" storm over a 50" season with nothing over 5". I am weird. Anyways I am not going to comment anymore because this is going to be a great event that 99 percent of the people on here are going to enjoy, no reason for me to pout. I recorded 32.5 so far. Thursday will make the 13th event that is at least 1 inch. Now as far as this storm, I've been worried to some extent that it ends up like the early March storm last year. This cold once again is the read deal. Last year's storm just saw the cold press overwhelm the precip field and shove it south of us by mid morning. We still managed 4 inches however the snow shut off 2-3 hours earlier than expected and nothing was falling when we were under good returns during the late morning period. We actually at one point had snow falling and a temp of 9. I don't see that happening but it does look like we are going to make a run at snow falling in the mid teens. I wouldn't get overly concerned yet because there other support for a wetter solution here. The GFS looks to be the driest of all the models and it was also for the 2/21 storm. If the 18z run plays out exact we still get 6 inches plus. There is also the chance that we are snowing earlier than portrayed which could lead to an additional inch or two. On the 18z run BWI receives .86 after 6z and Westminster receives .49. I don't think this storm ends up with such a big difference within 35 miles. Euro gave us over .65 so as long as it holds serve tonight I think we'll be fine. Then we always have our favorite topic of ratios which up here do matter. Bottom line is as of now all guidance points to at least a 6 inch storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Most models give me more snow than the GFS, which still gives me about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ah that's pretty cool, is it updated often? wxbell maps update every hour but i think most changes are less frequent.. perhaps some offices are changing at any given time? it's from the national digital forecast database so there's probably some documentation somewhere. wider view shows bigger disagreements in other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thinking there's more downside potential than upside with this one... hoping that the sleet doesn't cut down on totals too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thinking there's more downside potential than upside with this one... hoping that the sleet doesn't cut down on totals too much. 20150304-05_MAsnow_final.png Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Another ver I'm concerned about the QPF up by the Mason-Dixon Line, so this is super bullish by LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thinking there's more downside potential than upside with this one... hoping that the sleet doesn't cut down on totals too much. 20150304-05_MAsnow_final.png Like usual Mark that is a great map. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow the NWS is bullish already. This is just for Wed night: Rain before 10pm, then snow and sleet between 10pm and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 23. North wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 To continue the revisiting of the modeling leading up to March's cold storm, look at this article from the afternoon before the storm--- including the RGEM precip-type forecast for 9Z. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/02/rain-to-ice-to-heavy-snow-overnight-hazardous-conditions-monday-morning/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Paul Kocin: SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY AND WEST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERNMARYLAND/SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I got an email from NWS Wakefield saying they held off on watches because models warmed the system for Thursday. Does anyone else see this? I noticed snowier and colder solutions for the Maryland eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thinking there's more downside potential than upside with this one... hoping that the sleet doesn't cut down on totals too much. 20150304-05_MAsnow_final.png nice map, Mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 E-wood's map has a high chance at verifying. The cool thing about this storm (i hope) is there will likely be a relatively even distribution of snow. Better than the last good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I got an email from NWS Wakefield saying they held off on watches because models warmed the system for Thursday. Does anyone else see this? I noticed snowier and colder solutions for the Maryland eastern shore. I think the current forecast there is indicating some uncertainty in the timing of the cold air and the transitions from rain/sleet to snow. No doubt at least the MD lower eastern shore portion of their forecast area will see watches by morning. Other than maybe the NAM, all models show 4 inch+ potential there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thinking there's more downside potential than upside with this one... hoping that the sleet doesn't cut down on totals too much. 20150304-05_MAsnow_final.png They call that a wide swath in the bizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 E-wood's map has a high chance at verifying. The cool thing about this storm (i hope) is there will likely be a relatively even distribution of snow. Better than the last good one. that was tenman's forecast on the last storm and he was, as usual, completely wrong. it's more likely than not the typical places get it gooder than dc s and e. i'd expect 50-75% more here than say, dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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