ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I will never cancel winter in Late November again....... Looking like a Nov torch and +NAO. Terrible start next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Good god, that's worse than shock websites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I doubt that, I think some places just south of me have more, I know in the last few weeks they have beaten me by at least a couple inches every storm. You are 5 to 7" higher than most people south of you in Carroll and Balt counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Only issue is that there are few storms to compare this to and climo does not favor a setup like this...especially in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I will never cancel winter in Late November again....... This isn't even banter. It is the equiv. of "Don't worry Babe, its only a cold sore." "Mabel...I've been true and faithful to you all these years, by and large." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS is hanging on to the idea of a Western and North Eastern precip max. With lesser accums in the middle. Not that I would complain about 6-8 inches. The Euro says otherwise though with the precip max right over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is what I have been saying. Around midnight. Cold air is pouring in, the milder air will not be able to get over top of it and establish a warm layer. warm air doesn't rise anymore? have you ushered in a new regime of physics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking like a Nov torch and +NAO. Terrible start next winter. +nao.JPG We had a -AO November and a +AO winter. Maybe this is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We had a -AO November and a +AO winter. Maybe this is a good thing. It's like the polar opposite of 2013, retribution for the ridiculous everlasting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking like a Nov torch and +NAO. Terrible start next winter. +nao.JPG good grief. that vortex near Greenland is now actually a permanent part of the country. Future World maps need to be adjusted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. Talk dirty to me. Nice to see this trend continuing on the evening models of cold air advection. Just hope things don't get dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This isn't even banter. It is the equiv. of "Don't worry Babe, its only a cold sore." "Mabel...I've been true and faithful to you all these years, by and large." Are you ok? I'm asking this to be nice. There have been some interesting posts the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Only issue is that there are few storms to compare this to and climo does not favor a setup like this...especially in March. I really dont care what climo says, the last month climo is out the window...We havent dealt with a pattern/airmass like this very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. These are top shelf posts...but...will your idea show up on the 700 mb analysis? I need to see some graphics in order to learn. I think we want to look at vertical velocities and moisture advection...please enlighten us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 see you guys at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Talk dirty to me. Nice to see this trend continuing on the evening models of cold air advection. Just hope things don't get dry. Would be tough with this kind of tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Only issue is that there are few storms to compare this to and climo does not favor a setup like this...especially in March. climo dosent support a record breaking cold February either:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think the models are high enough for qpf Thursday AM. Experience and knowledge over years of forecasting...if you open the pacific and the gulf and run that kind of tropical tap into arctic air some crazy things can happen. I'm real excited for an event like this. Could be intense rates in local banding, some thunder in the frontogenetical forcing, high sleet rates etc. Could you explain the thunder in the frotogentical forcing part? I am confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I really dont care what climo says, the last month climo is out the window...We havent dealt with a pattern/airmass like this very often. That is what I'm saying. No set of analogs to really compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Are you ok? I'm asking this to be nice. There have been some interesting posts the past couple days Teasing Ji. I'm OK, having fun. Please consider my recent post asking for techniques to understand you comment about getting heavy amounts of precipitation. I'm getting fascinated with our developing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Double digit sleet is going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If I don't get 1.25" to reach climo I will be pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 climo dosent support a record breaking cold February either:) That is not what I'm saying here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You are 5 to 7" higher than most people south of you in Carroll and Balt counties. perhaps, I did get a ton of 2" type snows on the southern fringe of the storms that crushed the northeast. But honestly you can keep them, for me the total is irrelavent its HOW you get to the total. I would take a year with 20" that had a 12" storm over a 50" season with nothing over 5". I am weird. Anyways I am not going to comment anymore because this is going to be a great event that 99 percent of the people on here are going to enjoy, no reason for me to pout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I doubt that, I think some places just south of me have more, I know in the last few weeks they have beaten me by at least a couple inches every storm. you're sitting at like 90-100% of climo just like most us. so BOO-HOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Only issue is that there are few storms to compare this to and climo does not favor a setup like this...especially in March. Actually, for our area in recent history (say past 20 years), March has been the month where most of our rain-to-accumulating snows behind strong cold fronts have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Could you explain the thunder in the frotogentical forcing part? I am confused When you get strong vertical velocities within a deformation zone aloft. Thunder snow can result. We have the front plus the VV's and instability. Those areas where F-Gen forcing occurs in the dendritic snow growth zone...-8 to -15 layer you get intense rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Climo almost always matters. Respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yes they happen but how many lead to heavy accumulations? And without a coastal or strong Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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