ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Widespread 4-8". Warrior bigfoot jacking. Looks like he may even get 9 or 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 easy.. looks like ~1" liquid after flip? The 3z sounding is pretty gnarly above 850. 750-800 is the last to go. 6z is a snow sounding, but I'm not sure we'd flip much before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The sidebar discussion of the St. Patrick's Day event was strange in light of the modeling. While neither March event last season looks like a great comparison to this one, only one of them was changeover from substantial rain, a daylight event, and the first week of the month......It's like we automatically assume all March storms have to be hard to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hmmm...yeah, warm layer 700-750mb is hanging around until after 9z. Probably by 10z everyone's safe. Have to look at soundings later to see how much of an issue it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Damn..an inch of qpf after the flip...man oh man. I'd still go conservative with like 4 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The sidebar discussion of the St. Patrick's Day event was strange in light of the modeling. While neither March event last season looks like a great comparison to this one, only one of them was changeover from substantial rain, a daylight event, and the first week of the month......It's like we automatically assume all March storms have to borderline. yes...1st week of March is pretty much still February given all the super cold events we have had.....once you hit 3/10, it deteriorates rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Damn..an inch of qpf after the flip...man oh man. I'd still go conservative with like 4 to 8 I'm not seeing that at all....looks more like 0.6-0.7 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm not seeing that at all....looks more like 0.6-0.7 to me Was going by what Ian posted. Still .7 is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Just lock this one or the 0z euro please. Big March snow is now normal in DC i've gotten 20 and 8 the last two years. kind of expect it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The GFS is really something. Looks to flip out here around 2 AM. And it wants to set up the heaviest band of precip right through DC. Would be a pretty incredible event for early March in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 3z sounding is pretty gnarly above 850. 750-800 is the last to go. 6z is a snow sounding, but I'm not sure we'd flip much before then. yeah just looked. hard to say with those rates around.. could flip quick even with a bit or work to go on 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm not seeing that at all....looks more like 0.6-0.7 to me Looks close to .8 for DCA from what I'm seeing. Hard to say exactly when the flip is though. Either way, it's a great juiced up run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Potentially useless question here, but I'll ask and put it out there anyhow for consideration. How much of the snow pack do we figure on being "lost" with temps getting to 50 on Wednesday, along with a period of good rains? Or does that even matter for much at all? I don't know how much that will affect non-grass surfaces. Just curious. People have mentioned last March 2-3, and I can see some of the similarities in terms of rain to snow and much colder air moving in. Difference is that in this case, there's more snow cover on the ground beforehand, it's been a lot colder leading up to it, and it doesn't look like the same kind of sharp QPF cut-off that we had in the event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Was going by what Ian posted. Still .7 is fine by me. Was just an estimate lol.. only have looked total accum from SV so far. Right around 1" at 3z and north of 2" at end. Yipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Was just an estimate lol.. only have looked total accum from SV so far. Right around 1" at 3z and north of 2" at end. Yipes. Yeah, the SV qpf is really juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Only about 6-10 hours of timing difference between the NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BWI has .61" falling after 6Z when surface is -.9 and 850 is -1.9C, but thicknesses are 546, which certainly suggests a warm layer (soundings would be needed to confirm) so some of that .61" would fall as sleet I still think we're in the 3-5" range for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, the SV qpf is really juiced. Still pretty close anyway if we're not getting into the weeds.. no clue when the changeover happens at DCA between 3 and 6. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=precip_p24&fhr=087&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150302+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 the way temps crash at the end of the storm looks a lot like 3/3 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 3z sounding is pretty gnarly above 850. 750-800 is the last to go. 6z is a snow sounding, but I'm not sure we'd flip much before then. 6h window where 750-800 flirt with being around 0c. But we are parsing a 12z run two days away. it was a good run IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6h window where 750-800 flirt with being around 0c. But we are parsing a 12z run two days away. it was a good run IMO even if we flipped at 9z, it is still probably 4". It is a great run. All house money for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6h window where 750-800 flirt with being around 0c. But we are parsing a 12z run two days away. it was a good run IMO Lay down a layer of sleet, then a lot of snow on top of that? Yes, getting into the weeds...it was a good run as you said. Couldn't really ask for more; something like a combination of that and last night's Euro would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 even if we flipped at 9z, it is still probably 4". It is a great run. All house money for me. A layer of sleet before the snow is hardly a bad thing either way. Hopefully the ukie loses the delay with the midlevels and euro looks exactly like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weird case where SV snow maps have more snow than wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 according to the text output, the warmest level at 6Z Thursday is between 750-above 850mb the numbers I see say that it is 0C, but they do round up or down so it could go as high as +.4C also, I only have readings every 50mb so I don't know what goes on between 750 and 800mb, with soundings should be out shortly but my purpose for posting was that it was NOT that much above 0C, which is good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 A layer of sleet before the snow is hardly a bad thing either way. Hopefully the ukie loses the delay with the midlevels and euro looks exactly like last night. I honestly don't really care how it unfolds assuming the general idea is correct that we flip to accumulating snow at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 according to the text output, the warmest level at 6Z Thursday is between 750-above 850mb the numbers I see say that it is 0C, but they do round up or down so it could go as high as +.4C also, I only have readings every 50mb so I don't know what goes on between 750 and 800mb, with soundings should be out shortly but my purpose for posting was that it was NOT that much above 0C, which is good news 6z looks like snow even SE of DCA to me... it's close maybe but that's snow in those rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 according to the text output, the warmest level at 6Z Thursday is between 750-above 850mb the numbers I see say that it is 0C, but they do round up or down so it could go as high as +.4C also, I only have readings every 50mb so I don't know what goes on between 750 and 800mb, with soundings should be out shortly but my purpose for posting was that it was NOT that much above 0C, which is good news I've seen the soundings and it is close at both 6z and 9z, but snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 6z looks like snow even SE of DCA to me... it's close maybe but that's snow in those rates. I've seen the soundings and it is close at both 6z and 9z, but snow.... Good. IWMs map plots of temperature look more threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 CoD is fast with soundings for those who don't use it http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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