Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 cool..cause it has DCA at like 16 on Thursday afternoon well its still technically winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow. GFS is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've noticed the opposite to be honest. At least at the surface. Not sure about midlevels. The raw 2mt output from the GFS was definitely too cold with the cold shots, at least. Maybe it's been different during an event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's possible the GFS is too cold...it is super cold...Have people noticed a cold bias with the new GFS? Not sure. Thought I heard in here at some point that it has some issue with too much radiative cooling (with snow cover), at least beyond the short range. I recall some ridiculous minimum temperatures it was putting out last month for DCA (like well below zero). As for mid-levels, or if it's got a significant bias in the shorter range (<~48h), I don't know offhand. That 25 degree 2-m temperature you mention above at 09Z is remarkable. Don't think it was that cold before at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6-8" everywhere. Another great run we have gotten alot of snow the past 2 years. 6-8 is starting to get boring. We really need a HECS at this point. I remember we had a stretch where it was HECS or 1-3 and you couldnt buy a 4-8...but now its all about the 3-6, 4-8....double figures or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we have gotten alot of snow the past 2 years. 6-8 is starting to get boring. We really need a HECS at this point. I remember we had a stretch where it was HECS or 1-3 and you couldnt buy a 4-8...but now its all about the 3-6, 4-8....double figures or bust Agree. If next winter is a blowtorch but delivers one 24" storm I'll rank it above this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DCA at 9z...snow mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1015 56 -2.0 -2.6 95 0.6 -2.2 354 14 270.1 270.6 270.2 278.4 3.111 1000 172 -3.0 -3.5 96 0.6 -3.2 354 21 270.2 270.7 269.9 278.1 2.942 950 576 -6.1 -6.1 100 0.0 -6.1 351 27 271.0 271.4 269.8 277.9 2.543 900 998 -6.2 -6.3 99 0.2 -6.2 322 31 275.1 275.6 272.6 282.4 2.644 850 1449 -1.7 -1.9 99 0.2 -1.8 281 27 284.4 285.0 279.3 295.5 3.915 800 1934 0.2 0.0 99 0.2 0.1 248 31 291.3 292.2 283.5 305.2 4.796 750 2452 0.2 0.0 99 0.2 0.1 243 41 296.7 297.7 285.9 311.8 5.117 700 3005 -0.9 -1.1 99 0.2 -1.0 240 51 301.5 302.4 287.6 316.7 5.058 650 3595 -2.7 -2.8 99 0.1 -2.7 239 64 305.9 306.8 288.9 320.6 4.80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 umm... I was just looking at txt output so maybe its wrong but where is the heavy qpf? I only see a few periods of light qpf at DMW, westminster, totalling about .4 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6-8" everywhere. Another great run Bada-bing! There we go, that would be a big win if it can verify. Still consistent, the main thing it's done is to get colder it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we have gotten alot of snow the past 2 years. 6-8 is starting to get boring. We really need a HECS at this point. I remember we had a stretch where it was HECS or 1-3 and you couldnt buy a 4-8...but now its all about the 3-6, 4-8....double figures or bust We are not Anchorage, AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The raw 2mt output from the GFS was definitely too cold with the cold shots, at least. Maybe it's been different during an event? Yes, during precip events. All the models have too been too cold at range with the cold shots it seems. It's really strange with this event that the nam is the warm outlier and the gfs the cold one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we have gotten alot of snow the past 2 years. 6-8 is starting to get boring. We really need a HECS at this point. I remember we had a stretch where it was HECS or 1-3 and you couldnt buy a 4-8...but now its all about the 3-6, 4-8....double figures or bust What. Ever. Would love a HECS if one occurs, but I have no problem with a few 4-8" or 6-10" events in a season. Four weeks ago there were many in here wanting to put a bullet between the eyes of this winter and put it out of our misery. Now look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 umm... I was just looking at txt output so maybe its wrong but where is the heavy qpf? I only see a few periods of light qpf at DMW, westminster, totalling about .4 snow. probably more like 0.5 snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 cool..cause it has DCA at like 16 on Thursday afternoon Good lord almighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah, but only post-truncation (180 hours). Daytime highs have also been running cold. Agree with this... Particularly in the LR - even around 100hrs - it's been showing some much colder temps than verified. Before the 1/29 'screwstorm' it showed negative temps region-wide, then obviously moderated that when the storm went north... But in the short term there have been a couple of times (this Sunday, e.g.) when the 2m temps on the GFS in the very short term were warmer than reality verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 probably more like 0.5 snow for you. ehh thats 3 runs in a row thats gone down on qpf after the flip...I think 6z was close to an inch, 12z around .8 now .5. Not a good trend up here, probably good for DC. I want a juiced up qpf bomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 umm... I was just looking at txt output so maybe its wrong but where is the heavy qpf? I only see a few periods of light qpf at DMW, westminster, totalling about .4 snow. It's noticeably drier out here than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 umm... I was just looking at txt output so maybe its wrong but where is the heavy qpf? I only see a few periods of light qpf at DMW, westminster, totalling about .4 snow. you get about .60 of snow since yours starts earlier(1am) but its pretty light. The run sucks for you. Its like .20,.22,20. Shoot you now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Good lord almighty. looking at text, it is actually 19-20, but still crazy cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When first call is really the 2nd or 3rd call. 7th guess, 4th call, 3rd final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's noticeably drier out here than 12z the people worried about the NAM are nuts, the cold is pressing and the wave is not trending stronger on any guidance. If anything this reminds me of the march system last year, I think anyone north of Baltimore has way more to fear from a south trend then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lets hope the 00z models show some more qpf. Now the dry bias Euro is our wettest model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It is frame after frame after frame of moderate qpf. Wow, GFS is gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lets hope the 00z models show some more qpf. Now the dry bias Euro is our wettest model lol Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 you get about .60 of snow since yours starts earlier(1am) but its pretty light. The run sucks for you. Its like .20,.22,20. Shoot you now? ehh.. 6 inches isnt bad, but of course a let down when previous runs were 10+ and much better rates. Its a bigger deal north of us, its a suicide run for north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lets hope the 00z models show some more qpf. Now the dry bias Euro is our wettest model lol Ukie??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The GFS is hanging on to the idea of a Western and North Eastern precip max. With lesser accums in the middle. Not that I would complain about 6-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ehh.. 6 inches isnt bad, but of course a let down when previous runs were 10+ and much better rates. Its a bigger deal north of us, its a suicide run for north of Philly. next year...Its Hecs hunting or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie??? LOL...the model that nobody looked at till 3 weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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