WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hit refresh or something dude Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we are 30-36 hrs.away from game time per the globals....no where near NAM's wheelhouse yetI feel like you were pimping the nam in recent times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hit refresh or something dudeThanks for the tip. Brought DC proper to a 70% or greater probability of 4" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I feel like you were pimping the nam in recent times. The nam can be good at times as we both know. But when it is showing quite a big difference than all other globals it becomes really easy to not worry about. Yesterday was a great example. It threw out the nw solution and not one single (and more reliable) model followed. Today models trended even better. Unless I see something break towards the nam, it's really not helping the disco by parsing it. I would feel a heck of a lot worse if the nam was showing what the gfs/euro/ukie/ggem are showing but the globals showed the nam idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Complete failure and breakdown by rr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I feel like you were pimping the nam in recent times. NAM can be surprising sometimes, but when it's sorta the odd man out, it is always wrong that said, I'm an hour or so away from all snow based on the 12Z Thursday sounding imby and the NAM gives me just shy of 1/2" qpf after the change to snow, so it really isn't that far from the globals at this point imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we are 30-36 hrs.away from game time per the globals....no where near NAM's wheelhouse yet Look, I'm certainly not pimping the NAM but the fact that it's held serve with the idea of more warm air aloft should just give pause to those talking about these higher rates for Baltimore South. It might happen, of course, but the idea isn't totally far fetched. Can't just toss the NAM because "It's the NAM". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW Then there's State College- http://www.weather.gov/ctp/WinterHazards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Look, I'm certainly not pimping the NAM but the fact that it's held serve with the idea of more warm air aloft should just give pause to those talking about these higher rates for Baltimore South. It might happen, of course, but the idea isn't totally far fetched. Can't just toss the NAM because "It's the NAM". for me, it's not bad as is and just represents the low end of a 4-8" forecast it has been trending colder, and definitely NOT headed the wrong way, so give it until 12Z tomorrow when it should be more in-line with the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The nam can be good at times as we both know. But when it is showing quite a big difference than all other globals it becomes really easy to not worry about. Yesterday was a great example. It threw out the nw solution and not one single (and more reliable) model followed. Today models trended even better. Unless I see something break towards the nam, it's really not helping the disco by parsing it. I would feel a heck of a lot worse if the nam was showing what the gfs/euro/ukie/ggem are showing but the globals showed the nam idea. Could the NAM be right? Sure. Could I meet Brad Pitt from an undercover profile on Grindr? I could, yes. So yes, it's safe to say that we shouldn't totally discount the NAM. Just like we shouldn't discount my Brad Pitt hookup. It's possible, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hit refresh or something dude You might have to press F5 to get the newest maps... I had to because it showed the morning ones first then changed to the afternoon ones lol chillax. Try again. Lol got it now. Thanks. Sorry for the breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. Increased the Probs. categorical on 4+, added 40% threat for 8+ and slight threat for 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Look, I'm certainly not pimping the NAM but the fact that it's held serve with the idea of more warm air aloft should just give pause to those talking about these higher rates for Baltimore South. It might happen, of course, but the idea isn't totally far fetched. Can't just toss the NAM because "It's the NAM". But you can toss it for now because it tossed itself into a lonely corner with zero support. If it's right we need to see some friends come over. I'll give it 1% weight until something else tips the scales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 JB2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 But you can toss it for now because it tossed itself into a lonely corner with zero support. If it's right we need to see some friends come over. I'll give it 1% weight until something else tips the scales That much? I would see if it had a lot of support or something trended towards it. But nothing has...if anything, models have gotten colder. The predictable consternation and giving pause or weight to/from the NAM is kinda crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I know this is experimental and it's new to me. But it is surprisingly N/S oriented with the position and movement of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I know this is experimental and it's new to me. But it is surprisingly N/S oriented with the position and movement of the front. I think that's for today's system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think that's for today's system It is fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Could the NAM be right? Sure. Could I meet Brad Pitt from an undercover profile on Grindr? I could, yes. So yes, it's safe to say that we shouldn't totally discount the NAM. Just like we shouldn't discount my Brad Pitt hookup. It's possible, sure. You have already met me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That much? I would see if it had a lot of support or something trended towards it. But nothing has...if anything, models have gotten colder. The predictable consternation and giving pause or weight to/from the NAM is kinda crazy. I don't think it's that crazy. It's shown the same warm air for several runs in a row. Please, I hope it's crap. I've just been down this road too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think that's for today's system OK. Gotcha. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hi res really rips between 15-21z in the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think it's that crazy. It's shown the same warm air for several runs in a row. Please, I hope it's crap. I've just been down this road too many times. you're in a tough area for snow, not that North AA County is much better keep the faith because you will have precip linger over you for a while and at least 1 of the globals, I think, has your area getting more than up my way because of the lingering precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't think it's that crazy. It's shown the same warm air for several runs in a row. Please, I hope it's crap. I've just been down this road too many times. As others have said, when you have the globals, who perform much better than the NAM, consistently show very similar solutions as each other (and run to run), you should not put much stock in it's depiction, especially given the changes in thermal profile it's been showing. What if all the globals showed what the NAM depicted and the NAM was showing a 4-8" snowstorm? I doubt we would be banking on its solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 OK. Gotcha. Thanks. Plus those times would have been super suspect too. Start times would be early AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hi res really rips between 15-21z in the cities that ain't bad by any stretch I have to admit that I hate the color grades on Tropical Tidbits.....they are too close together and the maps can only get so large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 As others have said, when you have the globals, who perform much better than the NAM, consistently show very similar solutions as each other (and run to run), you should not put much stock in it's depiction, especially given the changes in thermal profile it's been showing. What if all the globals showed what the NAM depicted and the NAM was showing a 4-8" snowstorm? I doubt we would be banking on its solution... Of course, I agree. Fly in the ointment. Hey, I'm moving on and waiting for 18Z GFS before I get banned. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z RGEM is like 0.6" QPF after 12z Thur, don't know temps yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That much? I would see if it had a lot of support or something trended towards it. But nothing has...if anything, models have gotten colder. The predictable consternation and giving pause or weight to/from the NAM is kinda crazy. Hey I was cool with banning talk of the NAM in winter storm threads you said this is a weather board. No one is riding the NAM from what I can tell. It's probably wrong... but it's still a solution and one that looks more like March than ones that plaster I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hey I was cool with banning talk of the NAM in winter storm threads you said this is a weather board. No one is riding the NAM from what I can tell. It's probably wrong... but it's still a solution and one that looks more like March than ones that plaster I95. I don't mind talk about it. I'd never suggest banning talk of it. But this hand wringing over an outlier is kinda crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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