olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Same problem, warm way up there (700-750mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Doesn't seem that different from 12z It actually may even be a drop better. The 12KM Nam was terrible at 12Z. Still shows 6"+ for us. More than at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Seems like the NAM is standing alone on this one, although I think RGEM also supports it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sleet has to be a consideration for this vigorous of a system, whatever the models spit out all the great winter storms around here usually have some degree of sleetiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IWP NAM snow maps are practically identical between 12Z and 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 could be right I wouldn't discount it completely especially since I'm not sure if every feature is sampled well. But I'm not too worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sleet has to be a consideration for this vigorous of a system, whatever the models spit out all the great winter storms around here usually have some degree of sleetiness True. Sleet would not be a surprise at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is better Baltimore and North, cutoff on IWM is redicolous, 3" and 6" line are like right on top of each other. Snow ends at like 5:00pm probably. If all the other models were like this we would have mass panic. I like where we stand, 4-8/6-10 seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 its one of the most disastrous runs this winter:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is now 24 hours away guys...cant use the 72-84 excuse.True, but it's nice to know it's an outlier solution even 30-36 hours out. I mean, with the degree (and longevity) of warming aloft, the NAM is getting zero support from the other models. Though it does have better vertical resolution, if the mass fields aren't right, then neither will the thermal profiles. I'd be more concerned if other models were trending toward the NAM.Honestly, I believe our lives as forecasters would be so much easier if the NAM were to only run out to 36 hrs, or not at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sleet has to be a consideration for this vigorous of a system, whatever the models spit out all the great winter storms around here usually have some degree of sleetiness with great storms comes great sleetiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 its one of the most disastrous runs this winter:) All clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 True, but it's nice to know it's an outlier solution even 30-36 hours out. I mean, with the degree (and longevity) of warming aloft, the NAM is getting zero support from the other models. Though it does have better vertical resolution, if the mass fields aren't right, then neither will the thermal profiles. I'd be more concerned if other models were trending toward the NAM. Honestly, I believe our lives as forecasters would be so much easier if the NAM were to only run out to 36 hrs, or not at all.. I couldn't agree more. The differences aloft from run to run are comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM has a nasty snow cutoff for the cities and south for sure. But it has a lot more snow for the NW burbs this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still the only model that puts the max precip stripe that far north into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Probably like .25 falls as snow. It could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Honestly I thought WPC would go higher, (based off the new map).But it's a great call and I would think similar probs. (To the comment below me), 21z is 4:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hires not much better. Show's over basically by 10am (excuse me, more like ehhhh noonish...edit again I mean mid afternoon and there is no show) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. Hit refresh or something dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Still the only model that puts the max precip stripe that far north into Ohio. Death, taxes, and a northern bias with the thermals and QPF per the NAM. Guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. You might have to press F5 to get the newest maps... I had to because it showed the morning ones first then changed to the afternoon ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. lol chillax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow, really lowered the probs since yesterday. Must be basing it all off the Nam. According to every model including the Nam i get 4" yet you have me on the 10-40% border. Try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I wouldn't discount it completely especially since I'm not sure if every feature is sampled well. But I'm not too worried.Enough large differences to question it but not sure it can be totally tossed. WPC is kinda north too. nAM would maybe be fine if it brought heavier east though probably.. It's dry around here initially once it could be snow with help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 we are 30-36 hrs.away from game time per the globals....no where near NAM's wheelhouse yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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