Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

March 5th Snow Threat


WxUSAF

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

nah, this one is in the bag. It's just a matter of how much. I like 4-8" with some lucky f'ers getting 10". 

 

seems like this event might be similar to the 2/21 one, except we end as snow instead of rain.  if we do end up getting around 0.50" of qpf that's all snow then that would make for a quality send-off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I do not think you are correct about this, it's not that you are ignorant but simply incorrect. The cold air will in fact be coming in and changing the rain to snow.

 

touche....but it is precisely the opposite of the situation where precip is outrunning the cold air push.  The thump "waits" for the cold sector to arrive.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Using the meteocentre maps for the 12z runs, here's roughly how much falls as snow imby:

 

NAM      0.47"

GFS       0.87"

GGEM   0.91"

UKMET  0.87"

Euro       0.85"

 

Looks good for about 7-10".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's pretty impressive.  They are mid-range ensembles though right?  Probably not much use after the 00z runs tonight?

Old rule-of-thumb I heard was to favor the Op within 72hrs.  The GEFS now run on the resolution of the old Op, so I would think that makes them a little more useful at shorter time ranges.  I'd still favor the Op either way at this ~36-48hr window.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-505-506-040400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-150304T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-
NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
PARKTON...REISTERSTOWN...COCKEYSVILLE...BALTIMORE...DUNDALK...
CATONSVILLE...ANNAPOLIS...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...
LISBON...COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...JARRETTSVILLE...ABERDEEN...
FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...PURCELLVILLE...LEESBURG...
ASHBURN
250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET TODAY. SNOW... HEAVY
  AT TIMES...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A GLAZE WITHIN THE METRO AREAS TO ONE TENTH
  OF AN INCH NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES.

* TIMING...ICING THROUGH SUNDOWN.  RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
  WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
  INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME ICY LATE TODAY...MORE LIKELY NORTH OF
  WASHINGTON DC. ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED WITH VISIBILITY
  REDUCED TO NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY. TRAVELING POTENTIALLY WILL BE DANGEROUS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY. NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30.


 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015


MDZ501-502-VAZ026>031-040-052-501-503-504-507-WVZ050-055-501>506-
040400-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-ROCKINGHAM-
SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
HAMPSHIRE-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...BIG MEADOWS...
MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...
KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
250 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH
VALLEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO
NEAR ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. TRAVELING POTENTIALLY WILL BE
DANGEROUS.

* WINDS... NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...