AlaskaETC Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More to come after that. DC gets about 9-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 850<= 0, and sfc <=3, SNOW!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I was looking at the mid levels which are faster. yeah i knew that but it looked like freezing line was a hair slower to us on 12 v 0 but it's basically the same on wxbell. not that it's critical per se given temps are going to drop either way as it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 More to come after that. DC gets about 9-10". 66 and 72 are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 whoa.....those heavy totals that were WEST of the Apps are starting to link up east of the Apps by tonight or tomorrow, the Euro will have GFS type totals I bet.....OK, I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 yeah i knew that but it looked like freezing line was a hair slower to us on 12 v 0 but it's basically the same on wxbell. not that it's critical per se given temps are going to drop either way as it goes. As long as we are at or below freezing by 7am, things look pretty good for a high impact event. Temps in the low/mid 20's by 1pm and lots of rippage. This is going to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 whoa.....those heavy totals that were WEST of the Apps are starting to link up east of the Apps by tonight or tomorrow, the Euro will have GFS type totals I bet Without a doubt I agree with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Per eurowx txt DCA: .68" falls as snow BWI: .69" Westminster: .68" Take some off for mixing and still looks like a good 4-8 or so. Maybe more in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Has the timing shifted? Euro seems like a daybreak to sunset storm. That seems later than other guidance. Can someone clarify? In my car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 850<= 0, and sfc <=3, SNOW!!!! 15:1 maps are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 As long as we are at or below freezing by 7am, things look pretty good for a high impact event. Temps in the low/mid 20's by 1pm and lots of rippage. This is going to be fun. yes probably. i'm leaning 4-8ish imby at this point i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When you guys extrapolate and list potential totals could you also include RIC (please)? Long time lurker trying to learn from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z GFS has intense frontogenetical forcing in deformation zone after 06z Thursday. Surface low to our south will help draw arctic air south and with all that pacific and gulf moisture streaming in I think there will be some intense rates I do not think it will take until 7am for DC area to be mostly snow, more like midnight-3am. Temps are going to drop 20-25 degrees in 12-15 hours and I do not think the warm air will be able to get up and over some half out the door cold air mass but rather the rising milder air will be mixed out by the cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whoa...I'm not as familiar with the language here (i.e. 12z,6z, etc) So would someone tell me, (in English,lol) what time frame we're looking at for the changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 15:1 maps are better I'm going with this all the way. ANd you should too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 When you guys extrapolate and list potential totals could you also include RIC (please)? eurowx gives you .45" as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Whoa...I'm not as familiar with the language here (i.e. 12z,6z, etc) So would someone tell me, (in English,lol) what time frame we're looking at for the changeover? 0z = 7pm 6z-1am 12z-7am 18z 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 10:1 is more reasonable given the wet nature of the snow, at least at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Great run. Now let's cash out and get to the bank asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0z = 7pm 6z-1am 12z-7am 18z 1pm Until this Sunday, when daylight savings time starts, and then we subtract another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 AcePuppy, can you please post the eurowx ice map for the southern folks? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 yes probably. i'm leaning 4-8ish imby at this point i think. Good range. 4" seems kinda easy at this point. 8" is a different story. Someone to the nw or even ne could pull off double digits. I'm just assuming an overall 10-1 ratio. We may have some fluff when things get cold but the beginning should be a <10-1 pasting for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z. I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Until this Sunday, when daylight savings time starts, and then we subtract another hour. You add an hour..7pm becomes 8pm, 1pm becomes 2pm, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The snow will be wet for a limited time, 1 to maybe 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z. I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night. Couldn't that downside be mitigated if there's a small base of frozen precip on the ground by the time the sun gets super high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Seems like 5"-10" is a good bet for much of the region at this point. NAM the only real outlier, but it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z. I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night. I disagree. I'd rather be awake to see it fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sun will not mean anything in this event. This is not a pi** as* light-moderate event starting at 12 noon and trying to accumulate in 33* air. Snow on the ground by sunrise, snowing moderately+ into the afternoon, temp around 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You add an hour..7pm becomes 8pm, 1pm becomes 2pm, etc Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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