T. August Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bernie Rayno has a new video out. I like Bernie, and I think he's a good met. http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/top-videos/video/2430839568001/snow-to-produce-major-delays-thursday-across-mid-atlantic?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wxbell doesn't have ukmet soundings. It's always a best guess. Only access is surface, precip, 850s. Not even thicknesses. The detail is really good though with the regional panels but you still have to guesstimate when there's obvious marginal things going on. Last night was really juiced also. 1.7-2.0" liquid for the event. Today was no different. I'm not surprised things are juicing up. Water vapor is pretty wild and the setup with the arctic front can really wring things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 9z for DCA LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1015 56 -1.5 -2.1 96 0.6 -1.7 10 11 270.5 271.0 270.6 279.1 3.22 1 1000 174 -2.4 -3.0 96 0.5 -2.6 9 17 270.7 271.2 270.5 279.0 3.07 2 950 578 -5.6 -5.7 100 0.0 -5.7 4 22 271.5 271.9 270.3 278.6 2.63 3 900 1000 -7.2 -7.3 99 0.1 -7.2 333 24 274.1 274.5 271.7 280.9 2.46 4 850 1450 -2.3 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 281 23 283.8 284.4 278.8 294.4 3.76 5 800 1934 0.1 -0.1 99 0.2 0.0 240 31 291.2 292.1 283.4 305.0 4.75 6 750 2452 -0.1 -0.3 99 0.1 -0.2 236 44 296.4 297.3 285.7 311.1 5.00 7 700 3004 -1.0 -1.1 99 0.1 -1.1 236 59 301.4 302.3 287.6 316.5 5.03 8 650 3595 -2.7 -2.7 99 0.1 -2.7 239 75 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.7 4.81 9 600 4226 -6.1 -6.4 98 0.2 -6.2 244 82 309.0 309.8 289.2 321.4 3.96 I used you guys info for my snowy scenario timeline in Jason and my article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And the Euro has started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z GFS has intense frontogenetical forcing in deformation zone after 06z Thursday. Surface low to our south will help draw arctic air south and with all that pacific and gulf moisture streaming in I think there will be some intense rates MET MOS has IAD going down to 16. MAV much warmer, still likes the idea of 49 for IAD tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Cold air is quicker to arrive than the 0z euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Euro is dry thru 12z hrm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 like last night, not a lot of precip between 6z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 like last night, not a lot of precip between 6z and 12z i didnt look at last night till now.. it is a bit slower with that second batch at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so far cold air is quicker and precip is slower...this is ostensibly a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 guess precip will be about the same.. that second batch is just like 3 hours slower throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so far cold air is quicker and precip is slower...this is ostensibly a good thing as long as it is not suppressed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 so far cold air is quicker and precip is slower...this is ostensibly a good thing It's not if the front is still sagging south as the moisture will go south with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's a good run...cold air quicker arrival, and precip slower arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 850 line is just north of DC at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sfc cold looks about the same maybe a touch slower initially than 0z.. not bad though i dunno if i want to push the heavy start to sunrise or beyond here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 snow doesn't end for DC, and south and east until 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's a good run...cold air quicker arrival, and precip slower arrival. 54 looks pretty nice re QPF wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12-18z looks pretty good and it's still coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Using DC, looks like about 0.7" falls after 9z, and about 0.55" after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Unless we lose a lot to sleet it's probably 4-8/6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Its pretty similar to 0z nice and chilly earlier changeover and cold sector precip comes in strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z GGEM 10:1: cmc_snow_acc_washdc_12.png See that 8 for DCA? Make that a 4 or 5 and possibly the opportunity to be told that everyone else in the metro area does not know how to measure snow correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Unless we lose a lot to sleet it's probably 4-8/6-10 Yup, its a pretty nice accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Unless we lose a lot to sleet it's probably 4-8/6-10 For DC, looks to me like 1" of sleet/snow, followed by 4-6" snow. So pretty on board with what your'e suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 See that 8 for DCA? Make that a 4 or 5 and possibly the opportunity to be told that everyone else in the metro area does not know how to measure snow correctly. As I live near DCA, I have been following their snow totals closely for the last 3 years. You're ignorant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 eh, sfc is basically the same now that i look at hi res.. tho in most cases I'd rather start laying good stuff down before the sun is up here either way. not that i really care about roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 For DC, looks to me like 1" of sleet/snow, followed by 4-6" snow. So pretty on board with what your'e suggesting. The only reason I tossed out 6-10 is because other guidance suggests it could end up being wetter during the prime column time. It's a great run. No doubt about that. Things are basically unanimous for a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 eh, sfc is basically the same now that i look at hi res.. tho in most cases I'd rather start laying stuff down before the sun is up here either way. I was looking at the mid levels which are faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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