DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs is about 7-11 inches for BAL this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Stuck at 54 hours on Tropical Tidbits, but looking more threatening for Thursday for big snows. Looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gfs is about 7-11 inches for BAL this run. congrats DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Stuck at 54 hours on Tropical Tidbits, but looking more threatening for Thursday for big snows. Looking really good. Stuck at the same place on WeatherBell... not sure what's up. 12z gfs @ 54h with more coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My guess is that this ends up as a 6-10 inch solid snowfall. I think the upside is beginning to diminsh a bit because the trajectory of the precip is less southwest to northeast and more west to east, which is limiting gulf moisture. Just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is locked and loaded. Feeling great about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hey guys just catching up. Has anyone pondered what happened with Snowquester yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There are no different versions of the NAM. There are different ways that a user can convert QPF to inches of snow, and that's what you're seeing. In an event with multiple ptypes and close calls on warm layers aloft, I'm not stunned to see varying answers. Isn't there the regular Nam which is 12k and a higher resolution one which is 4K?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Stuck at the same place on WeatherBell... not sure what's up. 12z gfs @ 54h with more coming... gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_10.png Thats through 18z FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hey guys just catching up. Has anyone pondered what happened with Snowquester yet? Back to one liners......well......two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is locked and loaded. Feeling great about this one. I'm still uneasy. The NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IW snowmaps have 8 inches or more for almost all of maryland down toDC dropping down to around 6 near Fredericksburg, great run. Need 0.2" around EZF to get to Climo......but 6" sounds so much better.....3-5" works just fine too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hey guys just catching up. Has anyone pondered what happened with Snowquester yet? it failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thats through 18z FYI Yep - I mentioned there was more coming after. Total: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I assumed that the poster knew the difference between the NAM and NAM nest, but that was probably a bad assumption on my part. Figured he was trying to figure out why different "accumulation" maps from the parent NAM looked so different. Isn't there the regular Nam which is 12k and a higher resolution one which is 4K?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I take it this is the downsloping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 little less qpf this run at BWI vs. 6Z .80" after 6Z vs. .96" on 6Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I take it this is the downsloping? nope, pay back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 nope, pay back! HAHAHA! May actually be a dry slot.. Not sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok, so what about the GGEM, the RGEM, the NavGEM, the Ukie? I don't feel comfortable with yesterdays 18z NAM still on the table. Or with the smoldering hot ground that this will encounter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I take it this is the downsloping? I see that quite frequently on the high res models. It normally doesn't verify..I think it's a mix of downsloping and a fake rain shadow. I normally don't see less snow than LKU in these situations... For example- have you ever seen a situation where Madison county gets 2" and EZF gets 8" like that GFS shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I take it this is the downsloping? Most likely elevation,,,,,,,,,,,,,but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I see that quite frequently on the high res models. It normally doesn't verify..I think it's a mix of downsloping and a fake rain shadow. I normally don't see less snow than LKU in these situations... For example- have you ever seen a situation where Madison county gets 2" and EZF gets 8" like that GFS shows? and you def don't get half the snow that EZF does in a situation like this as you'll both start cooler and cool faster. the hi res often shows and never/extremely rarely verifies it. eta: you ninja'd me w/ your edit/add-on comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok, so what about the GGEM, the RGEM, the NavGEM, the Ukie? I don't feel comfortable with yesterdays 18z NAM still on the table. Or with the smoldering hot ground that this will encounter. I think the models that show a later flip should be considered, which at this point would lead me to not be so gung-ho about a flip for DC until around 12z, which would cause me not to forecast the snow totals that the GFS is showing. Right now I'd stick with 2-5/3-6 for DC metro and maybe if guidance trends towards the GFS tonight bump that to 4-8. ETA: flip to snow, not flip to frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pretty cold Fri and Sat mornings per the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z GGEM 48 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif (will have better in a few) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok, so what about the GGEM, the RGEM, the NavGEM, the Ukie? I don't feel comfortable with yesterdays 18z NAM still on the table. Or with the smoldering hot ground that this will encounter. Yesterdays 18z Nam is last night is look long off the table, and there is no such thing warm ground in nonvolcanic areas. Warm air, ****ty rates and ****ty sun angle account for every white rain instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Right or wrong, gfs has been steadfast with the earliest flip. Seeing it bump even earlier today is interesting but also in the face of other guidance (for now). This is a good test for the model to see what kind of bias it may have in a particular setup. I personally think the new gfs is a good bit better than the old one inside of 3-4 days but like others have said, the early flip is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like 48 is going to be very nice on 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GGEM looks like a nice hit at 54. NO soundings yet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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