yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SNOW sounding 09z THURS at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0c 850 line crossing through DCA at 06z THUR on 12z GFS SNOW sounding 09z THURS at DCA interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS looks great again assuming there are no sneaky layers, Yoda, how does the 6z sounding look? Marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This comparison makes no sense to me..3/6/13 started as snow then flipped to rain as trowel-convection cut us down w/ a closed ULL tracking over SE VA/NE NC. This event is the polar opposite of 3/6/13, dynamically speaking. I'm not sure where it started as snow and flipped to rain as you mentioned, but IMBY at the time (Glen Burnie) it rained the whole way through the event. We were all waiting for the supposed changeover to snow late morning that never happened. Kept getting pushed back to further in the day until eventually it was over. Last post I'll make on 3/6/13 as I don't want to derail the thread any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hate to beat the dead horse, but 3/16/13 was supposed to be in the lower 30s all day, while this storm will be in the low 20s towards the end. Why is that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS looks great again assuming there are no sneaky layers, Yoda, how does the 6z sounding look? Marginal? 800 is 0.9 and 850 0.6... so sleet changing to snow shortly after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Stop with the 3/6/13 talk. There wasn't cold air within 200 miles of us. It was super marginal the entire time. If 3/6/13 had arctic air it would have been a flush hit regardless of rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 BWI is probably snow at 6z per soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How are the different versions of the NAM so wide in their snowfall amounts? One has like a foot and a half outside of Philly and 10-12 near Baltimore while that one output showed like 3 inches in Baltimore. And there's others with everything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 All I must say is big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS looks like a pummeling, much faster with the transition to snow than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is a widespread 6"+. Another one down. I don't expect any surprises from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is money my friends. Time to get happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS looks like a pummeling, much faster with the transition to snow than the NAM. It is one... transition is ~2am or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 How are the different versions of the NAM so wide in their snowfall amounts? One has like a foot and a half outside of Philly and 10-12 near Baltimore while that one output showed like 3 inches in Baltimore. And there's others with everything in between. Because they're not particularly good at this stuff. GFS/Euro blend and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On queue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It looks like less qpf this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BWI 1AM Thursday LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012 72 0.0 -0.6 95 0.6 -0.2 356 11 272.3 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.61 1 1000 164 -0.6 -1.1 96 0.5 -0.8 356 17 272.6 273.2 272.4 282.1 3.53 2 950 572 -3.5 -3.6 99 0.2 -3.5 349 26 273.7 274.2 272.3 282.1 3.07 3 900 999 -3.5 -3.8 98 0.3 -3.6 315 31 277.9 278.5 275.0 286.8 3.20 4 850 1453 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 278 33 285.4 286.2 280.1 297.2 4.16 5 800 1939 0.0 -0.3 98 0.3 -0.1 260 35 291.2 292.0 283.3 304.8 4.69 6 750 2456 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.1 253 40 295.5 296.3 285.0 309.3 4.68 7 700 3006 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.2 -2.4 241 47 299.9 300.7 286.6 313.5 4.54 8 650 3593 -4.0 -4.1 99 0.1 -4.0 232 59 304.4 305.3 288.0 317.8 4.35 9 600 4222 -6.4 -6.5 99 0.1 -6.4 235 71 308.8 309.5 289.0 321.1 3.93 10 550 4899 -9.7 -9.8 99 0.1 -9.8 244 83 312.5 313.2 289.7 323.1 3.29 11 500 5630 -13.5 -14.3 94 0.7 -13.8 253 92 316.5 317.0 290.2 324.9 2.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 for DCA? nope. I was joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 BWI 1AM Thursday LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012 72 0.0 -0.6 95 0.6 -0.2 356 11 272.3 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.61 1 1000 164 -0.6 -1.1 96 0.5 -0.8 356 17 272.6 273.2 272.4 282.1 3.53 2 950 572 -3.5 -3.6 99 0.2 -3.5 349 26 273.7 274.2 272.3 282.1 3.07 3 900 999 -3.5 -3.8 98 0.3 -3.6 315 31 277.9 278.5 275.0 286.8 3.20 4 850 1453 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 278 33 285.4 286.2 280.1 297.2 4.16 5 800 1939 0.0 -0.3 98 0.3 -0.1 260 35 291.2 292.0 283.3 304.8 4.69 6 750 2456 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.1 253 40 295.5 296.3 285.0 309.3 4.68 7 700 3006 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.2 -2.4 241 47 299.9 300.7 286.6 313.5 4.54 8 650 3593 -4.0 -4.1 99 0.1 -4.0 232 59 304.4 305.3 288.0 317.8 4.35 9 600 4222 -6.4 -6.5 99 0.1 -6.4 235 71 308.8 309.5 289.0 321.1 3.93 10 550 4899 -9.7 -9.8 99 0.1 -9.8 244 83 312.5 313.2 289.7 323.1 3.29 11 500 5630 -13.5 -14.3 94 0.7 -13.8 253 92 316.5 317.0 290.2 324.9 2.54 Rimed conglomerate parachutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here's 6z thur on the 12z GFS at BWI. Prob big fat flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 WeatherBell has 6" on the ground by 12Z Thurs @ BWI... 3-4" @ DCA and 5" @ IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IW snowmaps have 8 inches or more for almost all of maryland down toDC dropping down to around 6 near Fredericksburg, great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I was joking meh. i was being helpful anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shoot, since 1AM Thursday looked so good at BWI, this is 10PM Wednesday night.....changes between midnight and 1AM Thursday I guess LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 72 1.6 0.6 93 1.0 1.2 352 7 274.0 274.6 273.8 284.7 3.95 1 1000 151 1.9 0.4 90 1.5 1.3 351 12 275.0 275.7 274.4 285.7 3.93 2 950 562 -1.2 -1.8 96 0.6 -1.4 335 25 276.0 276.6 274.4 285.7 3.53 3 900 993 -1.1 -1.6 96 0.5 -1.3 304 28 280.4 281.0 277.1 290.9 3.78 4 850 1451 0.9 0.4 96 0.5 0.7 269 27 287.1 287.9 281.4 300.3 4.63 5 800 1940 1.6 1.1 96 0.5 1.4 255 35 292.9 293.8 284.5 308.0 5.19 6 750 2460 1.1 0.6 96 0.5 0.8 255 45 297.8 298.8 286.6 313.5 5.32 7 700 3014 -0.6 -0.7 99 0.2 -0.6 244 51 301.9 302.8 287.9 317.5 5.19 8 650 3605 -2.5 -2.5 99 0.1 -2.5 233 62 306.2 307.1 289.1 321.2 4.89 9 600 4238 -5.7 -5.7 100 0.0 -5.7 234 71 309.5 310.3 289.5 322.6 4.16 10 550 4915 -10.1 -10.2 99 0.1 -10.1 244 79 312.1 312.7 289.5 322.4 3.21 11 500 5644 -14.3 -14.4 99 0.2 -14.3 254 92 315.6 316.1 289.9 323.8 2.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS has been pretty damn consistent with the changeover for westminster by 6z thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12Z GFS has gone white missiles with nuclear warheads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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