Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There is probably a warm layer in there for a couple hours. But at this point we have enough guidance, that parsing when the ukie flips probably serves no purpose....It does paste us with frozen as you said. I completely expect more sleet than I want but in the end I will measure between 3-6" in multiple spots when it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 IS this straight overrun or is it in any ways convective? Someone mentioned instability.. doesn't have the feel of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z RGEM has Baltimore changing over to snow at 11z, looks like DC is about to flip from sleet to snow at 12z. Through 48 hours it looks like the 00z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Does the NAM still have 850mb temps of +10 at 9z tomorrow night as it did yesterday afternoon when people were on the ledge? for DCA? nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I want the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DCA looks to fully flip to snow on the NAM by 18z IAD and BWI by 15z Westminster by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If anyone has an uneasy feeling it's because they think the nam is right. We couldn't be sitting in a better spot 48 hours out. Agreement of the models that should be taken seriously is virtually 100% with the exception of timing differences. I'm not sure what more could be asked for at 2 day leads. I have an uneasy feeling because its giving me memories of 3/6/13... I know its a completely different setup but its still the same idea of waiting for the changeover. And we had excellent model agreement right before that event too... but I've had a horrible track record of predicting stuff this winter, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If anyone has an uneasy feeling it's because they think the nam is right. We couldn't be sitting in a better spot 48 hours out. Agreement of the models that should be taken seriously is virtually 100% with the exception of timing differences. I'm not sure what more could be asked for at 2 day leads. Voice of reason. Those worrying about the NAM, read this. When the GFS/EURO agree and the NAM is an outlier, why even bother worrying about its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 not the sun angle thing again The sun is March is the equivalent of 100,000 nuclear bombs plus 500 suns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Voice of reason. Those worrying about the NAM, read this. When the GFS/EURO agree and the NAM is an outlier, why even bother worrying about its solution. Because this region has seen slams dunks fail inside of 12 hours and 3/6/13 comes to a lot of minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're still talking about the g******m NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The sun is March is the equivalent of 100,000 nuclear bombs plus 500 suns. or like 500.006 suns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Because this region has seen slams dunks fail inside of 12 hours and 3/6/13 comes to a lot of minds. 3/6 was far from a slam dunk. We knew we had precip, but it was going to be rate driven the whole time to stay frozen, which ultimately failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I have an uneasy feeling because its giving me memories of 3/6/13... I know its a completely different setup but its still the same idea of waiting for the changeover. And we had excellent model agreement right before that event too... but I've had a horrible track record of predicting stuff this winter, so... This comparison makes no sense to me..3/6/13 started as snow then flipped to rain as trowel-convection cut us down w/ a closed ULL tracking over SE VA/NE NC. This event is the polar opposite of 3/6/13, dynamically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're still talking about the g******m NAM. Sooooo much better than last run. Idk why people should fret at all. This NAM text product is pretty conservative with snow accumulations and it's not bad at all. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't even think the Euro ever looked good for 3/6/13. From what I remember, other models plastered us by game time and most of us tossed the Euro. Someone correct me if I'm wrong... if my memories are off then it's only because I tried to forget this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 or like 500.006 suns? Look at the smart scientist guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Look at the smart scientist guy. you may want to check his numbers, he deals with ice daily, not suns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 We're still talking about the g******m NAM. 4km NAM snow map looks AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4km NAM snow map looks AWESOME. Ok, I'll allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4km NAM snow map looks AWESOME. Is it interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 High res nam is late on the flip for the cities but really rips for a while. 3-6". 10" to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hate to beat the dead horse, but 3/16/13 was supposed to be in the lower 30s all day, while this storm will be in the low 20s towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 While y'all are worrying about the NAM and sun angles, the GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 4km NAM snow map looks AWESOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok, I'll allow it. And it says we get 1-3" today, so bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok, I'll allow it. LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't even think the Euro ever looked good for 3/6/13. From what I remember, other models plastered us by game time and most of us tossed the Euro. Someone correct me if I'm wrong... if my memories are off then it's only because I tried to forget this one. This is correct, Fozz. I remember distinctly the Euro being tossed despite having almost identical solutions for 5-6 runs straight for 3/6/13. That being said, it still had a decent amount of snow for DCA (3-4 inches) that didn't verify. The RPM did a very good job showing the screw zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 And it says we get 1-3" today, so bonus! Great confidence builder as I look at the drips off my roof! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 0c 850 line crossing through DCA at 06z THUR on 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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