clueless Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam hates me[/NAM made a big leap towards the globals. Best run for the NAM yet. Gives Leesburg04 about an inch frozen qpf So it came south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do they count sleet as snow? Instantwx gives us only 4-5". Hardly matters though.... the globals look much better. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Enjoy your sleet.7" of sleet would be sweet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 it looks like leesburg flips around 12z but plenty of more precip afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is a strange set up.. if 12z globals come in fine then great, but have an uneasy feeling as this is the moment of reckoning.. If things are going to turn unfavorable I think this run will tell us.. I have no reason to think they will other than we get screwed a lot of times.. If they come in fine... I think I would finally feel like it is a lock.. So, as we say, this is the most important set of runs all spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well because it's always fun to get a good NAMing. But, a good Euroing or GFSing is much more satisfying afterwards. We've got (and had) solid agreement between the two best globals. Assuming nothing dramatic changes on their 12z runs, we're basically down to details of changeover times, etc. Ukie last night dropped over .60 qpf between 12-18z and it looks like all snow. I don't have ukie soundings but it looks pretty good. 6z gfs drops around .45 during that window and last night's euro dropped .55. Guidance is honing in on a good pasting after the column is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Precip after the flip to snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Precip after the flip to snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model congrats DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Actually Nam looks pretty sweet out here....im hugging this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is a strange set up.. if 12z globals come in fine then great, but have an uneasy feeling as this is the moment of reckoning.. If things are going to turn unfavorable I think this run will tell us.. I have no reason to think they will other than we get screwed a lot of times.. If they come in fine... I think I would finally feel like it is a lock.. So, as we say, this is the most important set of runs all spring! I am sure everyone may have this uneasy feeling. I say it is March madness. If we get more consensus fine. If I get a ton of sleet rather than snow, well, it still is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM obviously keeps a warm layer in the column much longer than other guidance, but it's exciting to see it show just about 0.70" liquid for DCA after the transition away from rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Actually Nam looks pretty sweet out here....im hugging this model It is good to be loved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM MUCH, MUCH better around BWI-changes from sleet to snow prolly around 50 hrs. or Noon Thursday 48 hrs.-Sleet LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1014 46 0.4 -0.0 97 0.4 0.3 343 6 272.4 273.1 272.6 282.6 3.76 1 1000 160 -0.2 -0.9 95 0.7 -0.4 356 11 273.0 273.6 272.7 282.7 3.58 2 950 569 -3.6 -4.3 95 0.7 -3.9 13 17 273.5 274.0 272.0 281.5 2.91 3 900 993 -7.3 -8.5 91 1.2 -7.7 15 17 273.9 274.3 271.2 280.1 2.23 4 850 1438 -5.2 -5.8 95 0.6 -5.4 308 17 280.7 281.2 276.1 288.9 2.91 5 800 1916 -5.5 -5.8 97 0.4 -5.6 243 9 285.3 285.9 278.7 294.2 3.09 6 750 2425 -0.3 -0.3 100 0.0 -0.3 220 51 296.3 297.2 285.7 311.0 5.00 7 700 2982 1.6 1.5 99 0.1 1.5 231 82 304.2 305.4 289.6 322.7 6.10 8 650 3576 -1.6 -1.8 99 0.2 -1.7 235 85 307.1 308.1 289.7 323.1 5.18 9 600 4210 -5.2 -5.4 99 0.1 -5.3 237 87 310.1 310.9 289.8 323.4 4.27 10 550 4888 -8.8 -8.9 99 0.2 -8.8 244 91 313.7 314.4 290.3 325.0 3.54 11 500 5621 -13.3 -13.7 97 0.4 -13.5 245 97 316.8 317.3 290.4 325.5 2.65 51hrs.-ALL SNOW LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1017 46 -0.7 -2.0 91 1.3 -1.2 26 11 271.2 271.7 271.1 279.9 3.24 1 1000 180 -2.2 -3.1 94 0.9 -2.6 29 15 270.9 271.4 270.6 279.1 3.03 2 950 585 -6.0 -6.5 96 0.5 -6.2 38 19 271.1 271.5 269.8 277.8 2.46 3 900 1008 -7.3 -8.3 93 0.9 -7.7 72 5 273.9 274.3 271.3 280.2 2.27 4 850 1451 -8.0 -9.7 88 1.6 -8.5 319 10 277.7 278.1 273.3 283.8 2.15 5 800 1925 -6.4 -7.3 93 0.9 -6.7 270 13 284.3 284.8 277.7 292.2 2.76 6 750 2432 -2.5 -2.6 99 0.1 -2.5 229 41 293.9 294.6 283.9 306.3 4.22 7 700 2983 -0.5 -0.6 99 0.2 -0.5 233 74 302.0 302.9 288.0 317.7 5.23 8 650 3575 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.7 237 85 307.2 308.1 289.7 323.1 5.18 9 600 4209 -4.9 -5.1 99 0.1 -5.0 241 91 310.4 311.3 290.0 324.1 4.38 10 550 4889 -8.8 -8.9 99 0.2 -8.8 243 90 313.7 314.4 290.3 325.0 3.54 11 500 5620 -14.7 -14.9 98 0.2 -14.8 243 97 315.1 315.6 289.6 323.0 2.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Precip after the flip to snow. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=063ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_063_precip_p12.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Eh...still marginal at 15-18z even. It's probably 1-2" of snow verbatim on top of lots o' sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If anyone has an uneasy feeling it's because they think the nam is right. We couldn't be sitting in a better spot 48 hours out. Agreement of the models that should be taken seriously is virtually 100% with the exception of timing differences. I'm not sure what more could be asked for at 2 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If anyone has an uneasy feeling it's because they think the nam is right. We couldn't be sitting in a better spot 48 hours out. Agreement of the models that should be taken seriously is virtually 100% with the exception of timing differences. I'm not sure what more could be asked for at 2 day leads. That nuclear March sun angle after a 50 degree warm rain the day before doesn't help. Hopefully this stuff clumps to the trees at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Eh...still marginal at 15-18z even. It's probably 1-2" of snow verbatim on top of lots o' sleet. NW looks good though, as others have stated. Watching the sleet line move south might end up being excruciating, if the NAM is right (a big if). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That nuclear March sun angle after a 50 degree warm rain the day before doesn't help. Hopefully this stuff clumps to the trees at least. oh for ****s sake. weve been over this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That nuclear March sun angle after a 50 degree warm rain the day before doesn't help. Hopefully this stuff clumps to the trees at least. Torrential sleet and arctic air will encase the region in a shell of frozen ball bearings of epic proportions. Cars will roll uphill with their brakes on. World speed records will be set for flexible flyers and metal saucers. Emergency room will be SRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Who cares what the NAM says about exact totals and little warm layers because it's probably wrong. It has been far too NW and is trending towards other models that have been much more consistent. Look at the trends for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If anyone has an uneasy feeling it's because they think the nam is right. We couldn't be sitting in a better spot 48 hours out. Agreement of the models that should be taken seriously is virtually 100% with the exception of timing differences. I'm not sure what more could be asked for at 2 day leads. <JI> this map <JI> http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45847-march-threatssnow-storms-pt-ii/?p=3449292 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That nuclear March sun angle after a 50 degree warm rain the day before doesn't help. Hopefully this stuff clumps to the trees at least. meh... we've been in the icebox for a month. Not sure one 50 degree day really matters, especially with falling temps and +SN Thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That nuclear March sun angle after a 50 degree warm rain the day before doesn't help. Hopefully this stuff clumps to the trees at least. Lol, my front yard is a glacier. The Potomac and Tidal Basin are frozen at the latest date in their history. The ground temp is below freezing and has been since early February. I doubt one day of 50 degrees for 6 hours is going to magically make it a toaster oven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ukie last night dropped over .60 qpf between 12-18z and it looks like all snow. I don't have ukie soundings but it looks pretty good. 6z gfs drops around .45 during that window and last night's euro dropped .55. Guidance is honing in on a good pasting after the column is solid. There is probably a warm layer in there for a couple hours. But at this point we have enough guidance, that parsing when the ukie flips probably serves no purpose....It does paste us with frozen as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Torrential sleet and arctic air will encase the region in a shell of frozen ball bearings of epic proportions. Cars will roll uphill with their brakes on. World speed records will be set for flexible flyers and metal saucers. Emergency room will be SRO. Yeah and this is the type of snow that will paste the trees and road signs easily. And yes stick to the streets even though it was warm the day before. It may take a little longer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 not the sun angle thing again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Does the NAM still have 850mb temps of +10 at 9z tomorrow night as it did yesterday afternoon when people were on the ledge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Visuals always help. Doesn't fix the fact that the NAM is dumb. 6, 9 and 12z at BWI on the 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Much better solutions this AM! I wouldn't throw the NAM out altogether...more important to follow its trends toward the global solutions. Still have the uncertainty about the warm layer at H7-H8. That 1 degree difference will mean the world for snow vs sleet or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Torrential sleet and arctic air will encase the region in a shell of frozen ball bearings of epic proportions. Cars will roll uphill with their brakes on. World speed records will be set for flexible flyers and metal saucers. Emergency room will be SRO. LOL! My in laws parked their car in the driveway last Sunday and when they went out the next day the car had slid down to the street! And I am thinking of Clark Griswalds sledding scene! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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