usedtobe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 some of the arws are always too amped and some of the Nmms are always too dry. They have major issues. But in this case, the GGEm probably is forecasting around 12" and the 06Z GFS had around 9 using a 10-1 ratio so they spread is probably pretty well sumarizes the various possibilities unless you are willing to call the GFS an outlier. I think they do have utility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You hate me they dont know that we are the best snow city in VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You hate me If you would really be unhappy with a 4-7 event on March 5th I dont know what to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you would really be unhappy with a 4-7 event on March 5th anytime I dont know what to tell you. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If you would really be unhappy with a 4-7 event on March 5th I dont know what to tell you. You hate me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 fixed leesburg04 taught me not to appreciate any events that are less than 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm happy with a 1.5" event as long as everyone else gets less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm happy with a 1.5" event as long as everyone else gets less. 1.5" of sleet would be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 leesburg04 taught me not to appreciate any events that are less than 6 inches I appreciate you having my back....it's the least you could do after I gave the HOA the ok to let you move into the hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Colder and south at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wait, I thought we had a two week break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm sad to admit that I actually feel this way sometimes... I'm happy with a 1.5" event as long as everyone else gets less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mega-torch warm layer at 700-800mb through at least 9z. Pingpingping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Colder and south at 42.Wait do you mean there's a chance the nam was too amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM is definitely colder. It's coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Much better @ 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Boston got smoked last run, now it has almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is basically a sleet storm with a little snow on top for the cities. NAM. We toss. When the GFS and Euro have been in such good agreement, not sure why anyone should care about anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is basically a sleet storm with a little snow on top for the cities. NAM. We toss. When the GFS and Euro have been in such good agreement, not sure why anyone should care about anything else.It should get it right by the 12z run Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is basically a sleet storm with a little snow on top for the cities. NAM. We toss. When the GFS and Euro have been in such good agreement, not sure why anyone should care about anything else. Especially when it has less snow! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is basically a sleet storm with a little snow on top for the cities. NAM. We toss. When the GFS and Euro have been in such good agreement, not sure why anyone should care about anything else. I said it yesterday. When the nam has a far different solution outside of its range and the globals agree on something different, it will grind back towards the globals. We'll probably see these shifts towards the gfs/euro every run until game time. This is definitely not a setup where the nam will excel. Too dynamic and covers far too much real estate. I know one loop that is going to look pretty awesome during this event...WV. The plume will probably go all the way into to the pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is basically a sleet storm with a little snow on top for the cities. NAM. We toss. When the GFS and Euro have been in such good agreement, not sure why anyone should care about anything else. This is what I don't understand. Time and time again you and other pros and good hobbyists point out how terrible the NAM is, especially post 48 and yet you get consternation and hand wringing when it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM made a big leap towards the globals. Best run for the NAM yet. Gives Leesburg04 about an inch frozen qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wxbell snowmaps still show 7" from the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM made a big leap towards the globals. Best run for the NAM yet. Gives Leesburg04 about an inch frozen qpf Nam hates me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wxbell snowmaps still show 7" from the Nam. Do they count sleet as snow? Instantwx gives us only 4-5". Hardly matters though.... the globals look much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Its almost time for the inevitable NAM'ing where it shows some ridiculous 15 inches of snow outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is what I don't understand. Time and time again you and other pros and good hobbyists point out how terrible the NAM is, especially post 48 and yet you get consternation and hand wringing when it's an outlier. Well because it's always fun to get a good NAMing. But, a good Euroing or GFSing is much more satisfying afterwards. We've got (and had) solid agreement between the two best globals. Assuming nothing dramatic changes on their 12z runs, we're basically down to details of changeover times, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Its almost time for the inevitable NAM'ing where it shows some ridiculous 15 inches of snow outcome Happy hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wxbell snowmaps still show 7" from the Nam. Enjoy your sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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