SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 YES and YES! Wow, that's over 0.8 frozen at DCA. That would be a perfect end to this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6Z GFS cobb output... DCA: 6.4" SN/ .52" PL BWI: 10.6" SN/ .04" ZR MRB: 6.3" SN IAD: 7.3" SN/ .29: PL I'm not buying that BWI has no PL at al while DCA gets a half inch of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm on board for an area wide pasting...I think it will be fun...but I must stay in character and express that my eye is on the precip jump over the mountains...there is a noticeable difference west of them and then a burst east of here. The in between is nothing to sneeze at no doubt and based on modeling we will do quite well...just something I noticed and will watch as we close on game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 hmmm, for some reason the warm layer actually gets a little warmer at DCA between 6Z and 9Z DCA AT 6Z Thursday 1009. 52. 1.1 0.3 7.1 4.9 1000. 153. 0.6 -0.2 5.3 7.9 975. 356. -1.0 -1.2 3.6 10.7 950. 563. -2.3 -2.6 357.4 12.9 925. 775. -2.4 -2.8 335.6 13.8 900. 992. -1.7 -2.1 315.3 14.5 850. 1449. -0.3 -0.5 270.3 11.9 800. 1936. 0.4 0.2 242.4 14.5 750. 2453. -0.5 -0.6 244.1 17.3 700. 3004. -1.7 -1.8 237.0 22.6 650. 3593. -3.4 -3.5 225.7 29.1 600. 4224. -5.9 -6.1 225.8 34.1 550. 4902. -9.3 -9.8 235.5 39.5 500. 5633. -13.6 -14.2 248.0 47.2 DCA at 9Z Thursday 1013. 52. -2.1 -2.8 13.0 6.6 1000. 159. -2.8 -3.6 11.9 9.3 975. 359. -4.5 -4.6 9.4 11.3 950. 563. -5.9 -5.9 5.4 12.3 925. 772. -6.6 -6.9 349.7 13.0 900. 986. -4.9 -5.3 328.6 12.0 850. 1439. -0.5 -0.8 259.2 9.4 800. 1927. 0.7 -0.0 237.7 15.0 750. 2444. -0.7 -0.8 236.7 21.2 700. 2994. -2.2 -2.3 232.6 28.5 650. 3583. -2.7 -2.9 235.5 39.1 600. 4215. -5.7 -5.9 241.7 45.4 550. 4892. -9.6 -10.2 249.2 48.2 500. 5623. -13.5 -14.7 252.6 51.6 DCA at 12Z 1015. 52. -5.0 -5.4 8.2 6.1 1000. 177. -6.1 -6.4 9.1 9.3 975. 374. -7.6 -7.7 9.5 10.9 950. 577. -9.1 -9.1 8.7 11.9 925. 782. -10.2 -10.3 3.6 13.7 900. 994. -8.6 -8.8 346.4 13.3 850. 1441. -3.9 -4.0 283.7 9.2 800. 1923. -0.5 -0.6 236.5 16.6 750. 2441. -0.5 -0.5 241.9 24.7 700. 2992. -1.7 -1.7 245.8 31.6 650. 3581. -3.2 -3.4 245.5 37.4 600. 4211. -6.1 -6.2 243.4 41.7 550. 4889. -9.6 -10.0 243.0 45.0 500. 5619. -14.1 -14.4 245.5 48.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BWI is all snow at 1AM on the 6z GFS so here's the precip map after 6Z http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=072ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150303+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model GFS MOS for BWI after 6Z is .97" EDIT: sounding for mby yard is all snow at 6Z, BWI I'll post in a minute Thanks Mitch. That looks real nice. Might have to raise my bar...which I'm always glad to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT's 8-12" First Call suddenly looks pretty good he tries really hard to be effective, and non partisan. so does jb too i cut them both breaks, its the only fair thing to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 hmmm, for some reason the warm layer actually gets a little warmer at DCA between 6Z and 9Z DCA AT 6Z Thursday 1009. 52. 1.1 0.3 7.1 4.9 1000. 153. 0.6 -0.2 5.3 7.9 975. 356. -1.0 -1.2 3.6 10.7 950. 563. -2.3 -2.6 357.4 12.9 925. 775. -2.4 -2.8 335.6 13.8 900. 992. -1.7 -2.1 315.3 14.5 850. 1449. -0.3 -0.5 270.3 11.9 800. 1936. 0.4 0.2 242.4 14.5 750. 2453. -0.5 -0.6 244.1 17.3 700. 3004. -1.7 -1.8 237.0 22.6 650. 3593. -3.4 -3.5 225.7 29.1 600. 4224. -5.9 -6.1 225.8 34.1 550. 4902. -9.3 -9.8 235.5 39.5 500. 5633. -13.6 -14.2 248.0 47.2 DCA at 9Z Thursday 1013. 52. -2.1 -2.8 13.0 6.6 1000. 159. -2.8 -3.6 11.9 9.3 975. 359. -4.5 -4.6 9.4 11.3 950. 563. -5.9 -5.9 5.4 12.3 925. 772. -6.6 -6.9 349.7 13.0 900. 986. -4.9 -5.3 328.6 12.0 850. 1439. -0.5 -0.8 259.2 9.4 800. 1927. 0.7 -0.0 237.7 15.0 750. 2444. -0.7 -0.8 236.7 21.2 700. 2994. -2.2 -2.3 232.6 28.5 650. 3583. -2.7 -2.9 235.5 39.1 600. 4215. -5.7 -5.9 241.7 45.4 550. 4892. -9.6 -10.2 249.2 48.2 500. 5623. -13.5 -14.7 252.6 51.6 DCA at 12Z 1015. 52. -5.0 -5.4 8.2 6.1 1000. 177. -6.1 -6.4 9.1 9.3 975. 374. -7.6 -7.7 9.5 10.9 950. 577. -9.1 -9.1 8.7 11.9 925. 782. -10.2 -10.3 3.6 13.7 900. 994. -8.6 -8.8 346.4 13.3 850. 1441. -3.9 -4.0 283.7 9.2 800. 1923. -0.5 -0.6 236.5 16.6 750. 2441. -0.5 -0.5 241.9 24.7 700. 2992. -1.7 -1.7 245.8 31.6 650. 3581. -3.2 -3.4 245.5 37.4 600. 4211. -6.1 -6.2 243.4 41.7 550. 4889. -9.6 -10.0 243.0 45.0 500. 5619. -14.1 -14.4 245.5 48.1 Interesting, I wonder why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm on board for an area wide pasting...I think it will be fun...but I must stay in character and express that my eye is on the precip jump over the mountains...there is a noticeable difference west of them and then a burst east of here. The in between is nothing to sneeze at no doubt and based on modeling we will do quite well...just something I noticed and will watch as we close on game time Leesburg is in a perfect location for very very heavy snows and also for a very early flip from rain to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Leesburg is in a perfect location for very very heavy snows and also for a very early flip from rain to all snow good point jebman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sweet. I'll keep my personal backyard bar set at 6. Anything more is pure white gravy. Ok I'm going to be that guy--wouldn't ratios continue to improve during the event as temps continue to drop? Just a thought. That's a dangerous bar...it could very easily be a general 2-6 inch event. Probably should keep your bar down near the 3 inch amounts given that there's still some uncertainty about the sleet and changeover to snow. 6 is definitely in reach for sure but I"m not sure I'd set it as a bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DCA at 6, 9 and 12Z on Thursday per the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 westminster is all snow by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 as close as that DCA sounding is, if you go a short distance from the airport west or north you would see dramatically better results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 and BWI is close, if not already there. All levels below freezing at 9Z at BWI. westminster is all snow by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 westminster is all snow by 6z I think NE of DC is in the best possible spot...colder when the precip gets heavy and a fair amount more precip. This could be a good one for you up there...fun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 as close as that DCA sounding is, if you go a short distance from the airport west or north you would see dramatically better results Yeah, in the context of this GFS run I'm not too worried about it. This run is about as good as it can get areawide, and if we have to deal with some sleet for a while before anyone is even awake no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think NE of DC is in the best possible spot...colder when the precip gets heavy and a fair amount more precip. This could be a good one for you up there...fun!! thanks! hopefully many others get in on the fun too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There's no doubt the 6z gfs was a pounding. Gonna be hard to satisfy hi with the 12z Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 DCA at 6, 9 and 12Z on Thursday per the 6z GFS 6Z GFS.gif 9Z GFS.gif 12Z.gif Hmmm...that could be mostly snow at DCA even at 6z. The warm layer is pretty thin and only just above freezing. To be safe, I'd probably say it's a SNPL or PLSN mix. Either way the flakes would be rimed conglomerate parachutes probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The 4km nam looks substantially better than the low res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 In DTesque fashion, here's my first call. Not typically a bullish forecaster, was a bit for the 2/21 event and that worked out well. Here, I do love the rates after the flip and the feed of the ST moisture. That being said, here are first numbers to be updated later today. DCA: 4-6" (4.7") IAD: 6-8" (6.5") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") JYO: 4-7" (5.8") NAK: 5-7" (6.0")APG: 7-10" (8.2") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 tough forecast for the professionals. lots of variables and solutions and precip types still on the table. for here and typically favored places, i'd expect more accums, of whatever frozen falls, than parts east and south <----capt obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6z GFS is amazing... looks like a Warrior Bigfoot bullseye. Not worried about the NAM since it's alone at this point and even the hi-res is a shellacking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SREF plumes total snow mean went up for DCA. Now about 4-1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 In DTesque fashion, here's my first call. Not typically a bullish forecaster, was a bit for the 2/21 event and that worked out well. Here, I do love the rates after the flip and the feed of the ST moisture. That being said, here are first numbers to be updated later today. DCA: 4-6" (4.7") IAD: 6-8" (6.5") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") JYO: 4-7" (5.8") NAK: 5-7" (6.0") APG: 7-10" (8.2") You hate me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM looks better to me so far, I know people hate extrapolating, but it has a better cold push with the front thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 SREF plumes total snow mean went up for DCA. Now about 4-1/2". Tons of spread, with two separate and both likely wrong camps, well above and below the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM looks better to me so far, I know people hate extrapolating, but it has a better cold push with the front thus far It's only out to 21...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Tons of spread, with two separate and both likely wrong camps, well above and below the mean. some of the arws are always too amped and some of the Nmms are always too dry. They have major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 some of the arws are always too amped and some of the Nmms are always too dry. They have major issues. Indeed - best practice is to do some elimination of outliers to get a better mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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