high risk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 most NCEP models generate multiple output grids from the same model run. The NAM has 12, 20, 32, 40, and 80 km grids, among others, for example. Different grids cover different parts of the domain so that a user focused on a specific region doesn't have to download the large full domain files. Having grids of different resolution are mostly for bandwidth issues - many customers can't download the large, higher-resolution files and grab smaller, coarser grids. For a global model like the GFS, there is a need for some very coarse grids to have some smaller files available. Why have 2 resolutions for the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 most NCEP models generate multiple output grids from the same model run. The NAM has 12, 20, 32, 40, and 80 km grids, among others, for example. Different grids cover different parts of the domain so that a user focused on a specific region doesn't have to download the large full domain files. Having grids of different resolution are mostly for bandwidth issues - many customers can't download the large, higher-resolution files and grab smaller, coarser grids. For a global model like the GFS, there is a need for some very coarse grids to have some smaller files available. Interesting, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think we pretty much already know that? Nothing is definitive this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 most NCEP models generate multiple output grids from the same model run. The NAM has 12, 20, 32, 40, and 80 km grids, among others, for example. Different grids cover different parts of the domain so that a user focused on a specific region doesn't have to download the large full domain files. Having grids of different resolution are mostly for bandwidth issues - many customers can't download the large, higher-resolution files and grab smaller, coarser grids. For a global model like the GFS, there is a need for some very coarse grids to have some smaller files available. Good point. We run the NAM 12, 40 and 80 in AWIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEFS a huge hit for northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I have no need to wait for the Euro. Let's see how many opm messages we can get this week. Later all!Preview: Hr 12: oh man the NAM was onto something. Hr 36: definitely north but also south. Hr 60: Hr 66: looks a lot like the other models. Hr 72: but I'm still worried about the NAM. 2:45a: yoda posts the SREF looks intersting, no one reads till 530a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Preview: Hr 12: oh man the NAM was onto something. Hr 36: definitely north but also south. Hr 60: Hr 66: looks a lot like the other models. Hr 72: but I'm still worried about the NAM. 2:45a: yoda posts the SREF looks intersting, no one reads till 530a. problem with the euro is we have no detailed thermal profiles so we have to do some sleuthing to try and deduce if/when we flip. Hopefully it is wet as hell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 problem with the euro is we have no detailed thermal profiles so we have to do some sleuthing to try and deduce if/when we flip. Hopefully it is wet as hell... Like Winterwxluvr always says, get as much QPF as possible and worry about temps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GEFS a huge hit for northern MD some of the individ members get DCA close to 2.5" QPF in 72 hr period The 2.5" QPF is storm total fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Preview: Hr 12: oh man the NAM was onto something. Hr 36: definitely north but also south. Hr 60: Hr 66: looks a lot like the other models. Hr 72: but I'm still worried about the NAM. 2:45a: yoda posts the SREF looks intersting, no one reads till 530a. 2:45a: yoda says SREF's are "juicy". Then uses that adjective 5,145 times over the course of every model suite in the following 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2:45a: yoda says SREF's are "juicy". Then uses that adjective 5,145 times over the course of every model suite in the following 12 hours. Don't forget intriguing/interesting/pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 some of the individ members get DCA close to 2.5" QPF in 72 hr period The 2.5" QPF is storm total fyi 2" is a tough mark in winter.. even with half+ rain it'll be tough to go much north of that imo. not sure the ensembles are hugely useful at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2:45a: yoda says SREF's are "juicy". Then uses that adjective 5,145 times over the course of every model suite in the following 12 hours. may the euro be with you. time for my annual go to bed as it begins to run ritual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2" is a tough mark in winter.. even with half+ rain it'll be tough to go much north of that imo. not sure the ensembles are hugely useful at this range? I am more just using them to see if they agree with the OP; also as another group of possible solutions to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 may the euro be with you. time for my annual go to bed as it begins to run ritual. May the odds be ever in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro is a nice run. Everything is pushed back a bit, but concept is the same. We get thumped in the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro is a nice run. Everything is pushed back a bit, but concept is the same. We get thumped in the cold sector. Hr 66 is nice thumpage as long as the column is okay... i assume that it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks solid. .55 between 12-18z. Looks like all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I really like the timing too... early enough that the sun isn't too high, but also at a time we're awake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks solid. .55 between 12-18z. Looks like all snow. wbell maps spit out 7-8 inches for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 wbell maps spit out 7-8 inches for all of us Gotta wait for soundings. Old school thicknesses are slow to get snow going. I'm not sure anything before 12z is snow in the cities. Prob sleet before rippage. It's a great run either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'd estimate 0.7" falls for many after 6z. Storm doesn't end until 2-3pm. Hard to say when we flip to snow. It is going to be later than 12z run. I think we go to sleet from far NW to SE from 6z to 10z. And then we'd obviously flip to snow NW to SE from say 9z to 13z. I'd say a 3-4 hour period of sleet and then 3-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gotta wait for soundings. Old school thicknesses are slow to get snow going. I'm not sure anything before 12z is snow in the cities. Prob sleet before rippage. It's a great run either way. i think it counts sleet as snow so its probably a 4-6 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'd estimate 0.7" falls for many after 6z. Storm doesn't end until 2-3pm. Hard to say when we flip to snow. It is going to be later than 12z run. I think we go to sleet from far NW to SE from 6z to 10z. And then we'd obviously flip to snow NW to SE from say 9z to 13z. I'd say a 3-4 hour period of sleet and then 3-6" of snow. I think the vigor with which the cold air comes in will allow for less sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 i think it counts sleet as snow so its probably a 4-6 inch event The snow part is definitely a rip. Inch+/hr kind of stuff. Same as the ukie/ggem/navgem. Gfs is now an outlier for the 12-18z period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Gotta wait for soundings. Old school thicknesses are slow to get snow going. I'm not sure anything before 12z is snow in the cities. Prob sleet before rippage. It's a great run either way. The globals are all suggesting the same thing. That we get attacked in the cold sector versus some bootleg heavy rain to a couple hours of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The globals are all suggesting the same thing. That we get attacked in the cold sector versus some bootleg heavy rain to a couple hours of snow at the end. I liked that the euro backed off on the heavies from 6-12z and then dropped the hammer. High impact event for sure. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think the vigor with which the cold air comes in will allow for less sleet. It's a much better template than our usual rain to snow where the cold air chases after the moisture and tries to catch up. In this case the moisture is attracted to the cold sector. I think sleet is the big wildcard. Hopefully you are right, and it isn't a protracted sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The snow part is definitely a rip. Inch+/hr kind of stuff. Same as the ukie/ggem/navgem. Gfs is now an outlier for the 12-18z period This is what I'm looking forward to...some real rippage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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