nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Agreed. There is zero comparison. Matt's comparison to Jan 2011 is much better even though there isn't a bowling ball approaching. When the flip happens it will be heavy wet snow that will stick quickly. Snow will become drier and lighter as time goes on. And there won't be lulls. It will snow until the boundary sinks too far south. I'm sure the storm comparison is already out there, but was it February '07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Storms aren't even fun anymore when everyone has it totally figured out already. Wake me up when it thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Correct. If it happens during the day we need like -15 to -20 departures. Much better odds if it happens at night. Much like the St. Patty's Day snow last year. I received 8.5", all of which came overnight. Had that occurred during the day, you could probably shave at least 1-2" from that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm sure the storm comparison is already out there, but was it February '07? I think it was February 11-12, 2006 that I am remembering. Rain to wet snow, to powder. Got about a foot, but that's a guess. Edit: I looked it up and this is nothing like that, though the wet snow to powder would be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It needs to happen when it can accumulate on the roads (night/early morning) and cancel things. Snow isn't real unless it annihilates the morning commute. The timing looks good but not great on this one. A TON of Euro ensemble members have the heaviest snow arriving in earnest mid to late morning into the afternoon. Meteogram shows the vast majority of members flipping by 7am or before. 45 members or so show 2"+ on the ground by 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Much like the St. Patty's Day snow last year. I received 8.5", all of which came overnight. Had that occurred during the day, you could probably shave at least 1-2" from that total. In the urban heat hell of downtown DC, you could probably shave off 8 from that if it happened during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Isn't it a real possibility that the cold could hold back more than modeled? it seems like it happens every time we are relying on cold air not already in place. I guess dynamic cooling will help a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I am just worried this thing is either going to shift north or south with the precip and someone is going to get hosed. How likely is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I am just worried this thing is either going to shift north or south with the precip and someone is going to get hosed. How likely is that? As likely as your buddy Bill being in the Falklands/Fulklands/Fuklans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 ^^^ sorry, couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mine isn't meant to be consternation over the NAM, more general chatter about perils of a set-up where we are waiting for front to clear to flip snow. I do like general agreement of the long range and far more dependable models. Understood, but isn't the NAM the only model this amped/far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Understood, but isn't the NAM the only model this amped/far NW? 0z ukie lagged the midlevels also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 ^^^ sorry, couldn't resist Ill allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I am just worried this thing is either going to shift north or south with the precip and someone is going to get hosed. How likely is that? semantics. 50 miles is not as far as 1200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tracker, NAM and what Bobc referenced. Really, it looks fine, absolutely fun to track and hope for. I tend to always look for what can go wrong, and a slower than modeled flip into the daylight hours of early March would take a lot of fun out of it, for sure. I still have bad memories of the March 2013 disaster. But, yes, that went wrong for a lot of other reasons in a whole different set-up. And March 17, 2014 wasn't a lot of fun up this way like it was further south. Regardless, the idea we might re-visit Jan. 26, 2011 is a nice thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tracker, NAM and what Bobc referenced. Really, it looks fine, absolutely fun to track and hope for. I tend to always look for what can go wrong, and a slower than modeled flip into the daylight hours of early March would take a lot of fun out of it, for sure. I still have bad memories of the March 2013 disaster. But, yes, that went wrong for a lot of other reasons in a whole different set-up. And March 17, 2014 wasn't a lot of fun up this way like it was further south. Regardless, the idea we might re-visit Jan. 26, 2011 is a nice thought. What did you get on 3/17/14? I believe I got 7.5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ill allow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What did you get on 3/17/14? I believe I got 7.5-8" I will have to pull the snowfall thread last year back up and look - my memory may be off -but I thought that didn't accumulate as well in IMBY as elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Tracker, NAM and what Bobc referenced. Really, it looks fine, absolutely fun to track and hope for. I tend to always look for what can go wrong, and a slower than modeled flip into the daylight hours of early March would take a lot of fun out of it, for sure. I still have bad memories of the March 2013 disaster. But, yes, that went wrong for a lot of other reasons in a whole different set-up. And March 17, 2014 wasn't a lot of fun up this way like it was further south. Regardless, the idea we might re-visit Jan. 26, 2011 is a nice thought. There is certainly a risk of cold being delayed. But even if it is it shouldn't mean shutout. I want to maximize just like everyone else but would be totally happy with a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This has all the makings of a very challenging forecast! Arctic air running into somewhat mild air, Pineapple Express of subtropical moisture, arctic intrusion, timing issues, narrow swath of heavy qpf etc. blockbuster bust potential for some and heavy accumulation for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I will have to pull the snowfall thread last year back up and look - my memory may be off -but I thought that didn't accumulate as well in IMBY as elsewhere. 6" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6" for you Thanks Katie - I just went and read the back-end of that thread to figure out my seemingly not as good memories, and it appears it was because of how long it took to accumulate up our way. My last post on that thread: fwiw, rates were low enough that it was pretty much snow TV up my way and points north of me until around midnight. And for my part of the forum, 2-4/3-6 was generally how it worked out (altho on the higher end). I think the thoughts on amounts based on that timeframe were dead on. What was great for people from BWI on south was all the snow that stuck well before then due to better rates... (and what was, at the same time, really frustrating for the Balt city on north crew...props to the models for pretty much nailing that - altho it didn't make it any less frustrating...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks Katie - I just went and read the back-end of that thread to figure out my seemingly not as good memories, and it appears it was because of how long it took to accumulate up our way. My last post on that thread: Yeah, i didn't do well that storm, less than 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Thanks Katie - I just went and read the back-end of that thread to figure out my seemingly not as good memories, and it appears it was because of how long it took to accumulate up our way. My last post on that thread:Yeah it was good my way but barely. Cold and nice rates later in storm were cool for 3/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 addressing a lot of the concerns, "yes" a lot of things can go wrong, but the model consensus is for a decent hit areawide, as in north-south-east-west of the I95 corridor, more so than anything we've seen so far this year so relax as nobody can answer questions at this point as to which problems are the most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 More phasing going on in the 12z run, should be juicier and farther N, which still could be real good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, i didn't do well that storm, less than 4" I had 4 here but Westminster had close to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Bright side - This storm happens before the clock change so 1 more hour of darkness in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This has all the makings of a very challenging forecast! Arctic air running into somewhat mild air, Pineapple Express of subtropical moisture, arctic intrusion, timing issues, narrow swath of heavy qpf etc. blockbuster bust potential for some and heavy accumulation for others. I am pretty sure that Ian, who is a pro forecaster, is fairly confident that he will measure 20" for a storm in DC this winter so I guess this is the storm. :^P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I am pretty sure that Ian, who is a pro forecaster, is fairly confident that he will measure 20" for a storm in DC this winter so I guess this is the storm. :^P That already happened.. https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/567704966148923392 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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