Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I might be in the minority but I don't mind sleet that much. Yeah I'd prefer a pummeling of snow - but a sleet bomb can be neat as well. Awful to drive on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Remember, signed ints are important for location I'm liking the NAM temps tomorrow and the GFS precip track. GFS just didn't get the CAD for the last storm, and looking like it has the same issue with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice ggem shift with thermals. If the Ukie makes a move then we have almost unanimous agreement. I agree with Kenny. A good sleet thump topped with snow is totally fine in my book. This has been a mix storm since the beginning. Torrential sleet would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Reminds me a lot of the 3/3 storm last year, minus the good runs 2-3 days out. Wasn't that roughly 4-6" area wide over a coating of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This cold air is blowing in here, not halfway out the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 qpf from 60-72, looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 hmmmmmmmmmmmnnnnnn.....no! snow please oh uk looks to have delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 qpf from 60-72, looks great that precip signature suggests a further east solution as in colder but I guess we need to wait for the 850 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 qpf from 60-72, looks great here's 60 hrs in case anyone wants it http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=060&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Per meteograms looks like 850's and surface go below freezing at the same time around 10-12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ggem is a pummeling from 12-18z. Like the navgem. Around .50 and all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Per meteograms looks like 850's and surface go below freezing at the same time around 10-12z. I'm not so gung-ho with the Ukie at 60 hrs the 5400 thickness line is in western PA; it's hard to see, but it's the dotted line almost touching the NW tip of Garrett County, MD http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice ggem shift with thermals. If the Ukie makes a move then we have almost unanimous agreement. I agree with Kenny. A good sleet thump topped with snow is totally fine in my book. This has been a mix storm since the beginning. Torrential sleet would be fun. There's just something about hearing that deafening sound of a sleet downpour that is really cool to experience. Give me a really nice sleet base and then even just a couple of inches of snow (like 2 would be fine) and I'll be happy. It's March and soon I'll be in severe mode...IF sleet has to happen let's make it memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Do we have another para GFS??...https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/826717690708824/?type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 21z sref trends were nice and misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lol..UKMET is 0.62" QPF after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice ggem shift with thermals. If the Ukie makes a move then we have almost unanimous agreement. I agree with Kenny. A good sleet thump topped with snow is totally fine in my book. This has been a mix storm since the beginning. Torrential sleet would be fun. Ugh...I may have to stay up for the Euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lol..UKMET is 0.62" QPF after 12z. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lol..UKMET is 0.62" QPF after 12z. Ukie 850 map at 12Z http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=TT850&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Even though we are inside 72 hrs, GEFS still looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ugh...I may have to stay up for the Euro tonight I wasn't implying we have unanimous agreement about a sleet storm and limited snow. Ggem and Ukie improved from 12z. And both show a bigger thump from 12-18z. I'm not sure what everybody is hoping for but we are staring at a 3-6" frozen event inside of 72 hours. I'm pretty stoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 .5" of liquid as snow in 6 hours is good on any day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the euro holds or gets colder and wetter we'll know for sure the NAM is a definite outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 no. It's kind of misleading there, as it implies 2 different models. But I think he is just displaying different output grids from the operational GFS run: the one labeled as "regular" is very, very coarse (perhaps 110 km), and the "hi-res" is the highest-resolution GFS grid made available (about 25 km). Do we have another para GFS??...https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/826717690708824/?type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 .5" of liquid as snow in 6 hours is good on any day of the year. That's a gov closure for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 .5" of liquid as snow in 6 hours is good on any day of the year. No kidding. Things aren't slipping at all. Well, except for car tires thurs morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us It's probably a lot of heavy sleet first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 no. It's kind of misleading there, as it implies 2 different models. But I think he is just displaying different output grids from the operational GFS run: the one labeled as "regular" is very, very coarse (perhaps 110 km), and the "hi-res" is the highest-resolution GFS grid made available (about 25 km). Why have 2 resolutions for the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I wasn't implying we have unanimous agreement about a sleet storm and limited snow. Ggem and Ukie improved from 12z. And both show a bigger thump from 12-18z. I'm not sure what everybody is hoping for but we are staring at a 3-6" frozen event inside of 72 hours. I'm pretty stoked Yup..most of us are realistic and grounded. 3 to 6 after some sleet is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the euro holds or gets colder and wetter we'll know for sure the NAM is a definite outlier I think we pretty much already know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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