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March 5th Snow Threat


WxUSAF

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That's a dangerous first map

Agreed. 

 

March...a changeover scenario...precip type questions...narrow band of heaviest precip...

 

Lots of questions on this one. Plenty of reasons to be genuinely optimistic, but calling for 4-6 over such a broad area this early is pretty bold.

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Im not sure Ive ever seen the map lit up like this ( i know not really related to this storm) That said I think its reasonable to think that the strong cold air push could be stronger than the NAM indicates...The northern jet has been stronger all year and probably isnt comparable to other years or events.

post-2017-0-69469000-1425353267_thumb.pn

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So you think the NAM is right.

No, it's probably a little cold and south... ;)

 

But seriously.. I mean, it's 'logical' based on the good guidance.. though perhaps closer to high end of current reasonable?  I dunno.. I am sheepish in general compared to many these days. As you've alluded to plenty the timing of the changeover could be critical especially in a more GFS look (as matt pointed out at dinner).. where the heaviest is coincident with that period. The Euro holds some of the best stuff off till after we're solidly cooled down.  If for some reason the flip dragged an hour or two every run into close it cuts down a deal on totals even if you don't trend badly in any other way. 

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48 hr. rgem fwiw at this point

the 850 line (bottom right map dashed line) is about the same spot as tonight's NAM but it is further east down south in TN, KY, etc.

what does it mean? I have no idea

 

none of us do partly because those maps are ridiculous.

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48 hr. rgem fwiw at this point

the 850 line (bottom right map dashed line) is about the same spot as tonight's NAM but it is further east down south in TN, KY, etc.

what does it mean? I have no idea

520_100.gif

You sure you looked at the right line? It's still running through central KY like the NAM

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