stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ok folks, take the fighting and chatter to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LWX has a 72hr snow map out... Shows Thursday's event as a widespread 4-6 inch event. Not sure if you've seen it Edit: I'm hugging it until it stops raining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's a dangerous first map Not that it's wrong or outlandish. But it's early still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's a dangerous first map Agreed. March...a changeover scenario...precip type questions...narrow band of heaviest precip... Lots of questions on this one. Plenty of reasons to be genuinely optimistic, but calling for 4-6 over such a broad area this early is pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's a dangerous first map Not that it's wrong or outlandish. But it's early still. So you think the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Im not sure Ive ever seen the map lit up like this ( i know not really related to this storm) That said I think its reasonable to think that the strong cold air push could be stronger than the NAM indicates...The northern jet has been stronger all year and probably isnt comparable to other years or events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It is curious that LWX jacked up that map. They also moved the heavier prediction SOUTH from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS is running... does it hold or trend towards the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So you think the NAM is right. No, it's probably a little cold and south... But seriously.. I mean, it's 'logical' based on the good guidance.. though perhaps closer to high end of current reasonable? I dunno.. I am sheepish in general compared to many these days. As you've alluded to plenty the timing of the changeover could be critical especially in a more GFS look (as matt pointed out at dinner).. where the heaviest is coincident with that period. The Euro holds some of the best stuff off till after we're solidly cooled down. If for some reason the flip dragged an hour or two every run into close it cuts down a deal on totals even if you don't trend badly in any other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 48 hr. rgem fwiw at this point the 850 line (bottom right map dashed line) is about the same spot as tonight's NAM but it is further east down south in TN, KY, etc. what does it mean? I have no idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 48 hr. rgem fwiw at this point the 850 line (bottom right map dashed line) is about the same spot as tonight's NAM but it is further east down south in TN, KY, etc. what does it mean? I have no idea none of us do partly because those maps are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mitch, I don't know what any of that scribble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Canada cipher Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 48 hr. rgem fwiw at this point the 850 line (bottom right map dashed line) is about the same spot as tonight's NAM but it is further east down south in TN, KY, etc. what does it mean? I have no idea You sure you looked at the right line? It's still running through central KY like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mitch et al -- use this for RGEM... easier to read -- http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&mode=latest&map=na&mod=gemreg〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What yoda said. ETA: Actually this is from a different site. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mitch et al -- use this for RGEM... easier to read -- http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=00&mode=latest&map=na&mod=gemreg〈=en sorry, I like my weather answers black and white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You sure you looked at the right line? It's still running through central KY like the NAM yes, NAM had it on the border with southern IL and IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 850 0c line right by DCA at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS coming in colder. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 WPC went big- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=72&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS coming in colder. heh. BOOM. Hour 60 is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane M. Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BOOM. Hour 60 is crazy haha I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 BOOM. Hour 60 is crazy Tell us more! Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 WPC went big- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=72&ptype=snow Wow that's huge. 6"+ for much of Baltimore metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's probably drier than 18z but more noise than anything. Soundings needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My favorite iconEdit: Bob ruined it by saying its drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks good.. actually a hair drier overall, more in line with Euro QPF. Someone gotta ban the O face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's probably drier than 18z but more noise than anything. Soundings needed. We need to get rid of that d@mn warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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