Ravens94 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LWX MAX SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The only takeaway anybody needs from the NAM is that it just went toward the GFS. If it were on to something bad it would have held it or gotten worse This. Mods, please move all other NAM analysis to banter and keep this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I really have a feeling with this system. It's not a common pattern and the models are not on to its full potential yet. Full Pacific and Gulf tap means serious business and when tossed into arctic air would bring a jackpot event. It's narrow but it's gonna happen somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DC switches to snow at 18Z just as the 700 mb gets down slopping and precip shuts off. If the NAM is correct, the Pennsylvania turnpike will be a good chase destination. Just throw a farking shoe through your monitor, NAM killed the storm dead. Done and dusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There's gonna be a lot of happiness around here when that nice yellow band shifts 100 miles south at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winchester is... there is a warm layer at 700-800mb... at hr 54, 775-800mb are nearly +5 Look at the 9 hours after 54. Whatever. Its a great run for the nw burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There's gonna be a lot of happiness around here when that nice yellow band shifts 100 miles south at 12z I thought this was a better run? There is no snow at all on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I can see this event being one of those events that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM still won't get it done, but it's an improvement and noticeable shift This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 bBBu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks completely wrong. Too amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 LWX MAX SN Everyone here knows how I feel about those maps, but it's a HUGE jump up from the earlier map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I thought this was a better run? There is no snow at all on here. The NAM has the axis of heavy snow from west central Kentucky to Johnstown, PA. Change over to frozen at the surface seems delayed until about 12Z and moisture shuts off after 18 Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Winchester is... there is a warm layer at 700-800mb... at hr 54, 775-800mb are nearly +5 I suspected something was up when I saw all the precip was along the -10C 850mb line. Much more likely the heaviest precip is over the +2c 850mb line where every other model has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 much better run than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks dead wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks completely wrong. Too amplified NAM looks dead wrong. Do you think the NAM is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM looks dead wrong. Great, but why? Climatological norm, our area is favored for cold air to move in as the moisture departs. This system has no blocking and the SE ridge is asserting itself. The NAM shows the moisture jumping rapidly out to sea or perhaps Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 the run sucks I think this might be the final solution...what should we tell our fans on FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Great, but why? Climatological norm, our area is favored for cold air to move in as the moisture departs. This system has no blocking and the SE ridge is asserting itself. A model on its own. Forget the beatdown the Euro took in December when it tried it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Late January pattern returns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Late January pattern returns? We just don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 should be just the beginning of the NAM correction. what is a NAM correction? none of the models are right yet. it's just a different solution. the weather hasn't happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 much better run than 18z We see it quite often. Out of range outlying solution that grinds back towards the globals. We have the gefs/euro and their ensembles holding hands right now and we're inside of 72 for the important stuff. I personally think the gfs was too quick with the column @ 12z. 18z was a sleetfest for a while but it's such a close call it could be noise. It mostly held serve from 12z. As long as the flip happens by 6am or so we have a decent event on our hands. It's looked and felt like a 2-4/3-6 for the last couple days. Nothing has really changed there yet and we're getting pretty close to game time. If the 0z euro/gfs hold again then confidence really starts to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW, at the very end of the 4km NAM run, hr 57 has 0c 850 line moving through DCA at 09z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A model on its own. Forget the beatdown the Euro took in December when it tried it? Yeah. But the NAM reflects the history of climate in this area. I feel like I can remember an entire lifetime of systems where a blast of CAA oozes into the area and the precipitation shuts off just when things get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We see it quite often. Out of range outlying solution that grinds back towards the globals. We have the gefs/euro and their ensembles holding hands right now and we're inside of 72 for the important stuff. I personally think the gfs was too quick with the column @ 12z. 18z was a sleetfest for a while but it's such a close call it could be noise. It mostly held serve from 12z. As long as the flip happens by 6am or so we have a decent event on our hands. It's looked and felt like a 2-4/3-6 for the last couple days. Nothing has really changed there yet and we're getting pretty close to game time. If the 0z euro/gfs hold again then confidence really starts to increase. 2-4/3-6 are you thinking for the cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS going ice storm to start in Hampton, VA 7 AM then sleet and snow. My guess 1-3in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 2-4/3-6 are you thinking for the cities?Yes, cities and burbs within 30 miles either way. N md has an advantage. There's upside but the column has to overcome some issues and sleet will definitely fall at first. How long is a very tough question. I'm assuming we have a good snow sounding by 12z. The window from 12-18z has some potential to overperform depending on how everything evolves. Both the gefs and EPS have some interesting looks mixed in. The jet should be ripping so with the right ingredients I could envision some training bands aligned in an unusual sw-ne trajectory for a snow storm. Radar might look like mid-late spring. Lol. All of the above is a total wag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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