usedtobe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 euro has a known snow cover bias with cold and the gfs has the same apparently post upgrade. never say never at dulles if it's close but even chopping 10 off MOS keeps above zero if just a bit. Single digits seem quite likely.. widespread below 0s probably won't happen. The 18Z GFS is slower bringing the cold air in then the 12Z version, it's almost got the timing of the 12Z NAM. The 18Z NAM has the timing of several of the 03Z Sref members that some here were bad mouthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW the sref is north (not quite NAM north, but still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here is an ensemble of thickness; it seems to support a slower arrival of the cold air mass. Not sure what the reddish pink line demarcates, am guess it is a critical freezing level. If so, it passes across Baltimore and across the west side of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 FWIW the sref is north (not quite NAM north, but still). No it isn't. It's almost identical to 15z. Maybe an hour slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT is all in 8-12 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 this might and most likely will be last threat, I really miss those radio shows...any chances? with this type of set up might make for an interesting talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Here is an ensemble of thickness; it seems to support a slower arrival of the cold air mass. Not sure what the reddish pink line demarcates, am guess it is a critical freezing level. If so, it passes across Baltimore and across the west side of DC mslp_f072_usbg.gif congrats PA Honestly I'm feeling uneasy about these north shifts in the SREF and even the NAM... regardless of their reputations. Is it a trend like PG claimed? Not at this point, but to me it's still a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DT is all in 8-12 for DCA Is there even a model that shows 8" for DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lolz What am I missing? 1pm Wed to 1am Thurs? With an anticipated turnover from rain/sleet to snow circa midnight to 2am Thursday am, that just doesn't make sense. If DT means 1pm Wed to 1pm Thurs, then maybe that's feasible, if not bullish on the upper end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What am I missing? 1pm Wed to 1am Thurs? With an anticipated turnover from rain/sleet to snow circa midnight to 2am Thursday am, that just doesn't make sense. If DT means 1pm Wed to 1pm Thurs, then maybe that's feasible, if not bullish on the upper end of the spectrum. I'm about 95% sure he meant 1 PM wed to 1 PM thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 No it isn't. It's almost identical to 15z. Maybe an hour slower. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/SREF/15/NE/srefNE_prec_snowmn12_075.gif vs http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/SREF/21/NE/srefNE_prec_snowmn12_066.gif I think the main difference is the cold air taking longer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congrats PA Honestly I'm feeling uneasy about these north shifts in the SREF and even the NAM... regardless of their reputations. Is it a trend like PG claimed? Not at this point, but to me it's still a red flag. Agree. Sure, they could be wrong (Hope so!) but these jogs north, waiting for cold air, possible timing issues, at least make me pessimistic a little. Where's that 0Z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 What am I missing? 1pm Wed to 1am Thurs? With an anticipated turnover from rain/sleet to snow circa midnight to 2am Thursday am, that just doesn't make sense. If DT means 1pm Wed to 1pm Thurs, then maybe that's feasible, if not bullish on the upper end of the spectrum. That is only starting times, so he has DC starting with snow, roughly 1AM Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congrats PA Honestly I'm feeling uneasy about these north shifts in the SREF and even the NAM... regardless of their reputations. Is it a trend like PG claimed? Not at this point, but to me it's still a red flag. I'm sure it is too soon to know the timing. One thing to take an interest in the fact that 850 mb temperatures moving into our region are 3 standard deviations below the mean (briefly, there will be quick moderation). So if the timing is optimal, our region will get significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congrats PA Honestly I'm feeling uneasy about these north shifts in the SREF and even the NAM... regardless of their reputations. Is it a trend like PG claimed? Not at this point, but to me it's still a red flag. wait, you mean north shifts are real??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 congrats PA Honestly I'm feeling uneasy about these north shifts in the SREF and even the NAM... regardless of their reputations. Is it a trend like PG claimed? Not at this point, but to me it's still a red flag. It's okay if the cold air takes longer to get in as long as the precip also does. Basically, the more positively tilted the troff, the better our chances of snow instead of rain. 18z NAM was a lot less positively tilted than the GFS at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That is only starting times, so he has DC starting with snow, roughly 1AM Thurs Yea, the second map is the starting times, which seems reasonable based on current runs. I'm referring to the other map to the left of that one - the 1st guess map showing DC and much of the DELMARVA 8-12 by 1am Thursday. He must mean 1pm Wed to 1pm Thurs. As much as I'd love anything over 8, will believe it when I am plowing it on Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 wait, you mean north shifts are real??? North shifts only happen when they screw us over. We do south trends much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Agree. Sure, they could be wrong (Hope so!) but these jogs north, waiting for cold air, possible timing issues, at least make me pessimistic a little. Where's that 0Z NAM? smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm skeptical of this even being dca's highest snowfall of the season. Sure there's at least a few inches possible, but on top of late season rain...drop those ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea, the second map is the starting times, which seems reasonable based on current runs. I'm referring to the other map to the left of that one - the 1st guess map showing DC and much of the DELMARVA 8-12 by 1am Thursday. He must mean 1pm Wed to 1pm Thurs. As much as I'd love anything over 8, will believe it when I am plowing it on Thursday afternoon. Yeah, that map is certainly overly bullish...I think most expectations would be 4-8 if all goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The freaking out is pretty hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The freaking out is pretty hilarious You need to drive down the road and smack some sense into fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You need to drive down the road and smack some sense into fozz. Hahaha. I mean, I guess I understand the concern, sure it could shift north, or the cold air could stall, but we just don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 smh Seriously how awful have the last few pages been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hahaha. I mean, I guess I understand the concern, sure it could shift north, or the cold air could stall, but we just don't know yet We can't know yet. It's a meteorological impossibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Seriously how awful have the last few pages been Maybe with the NAM getting ready to come out, it will get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 lol that post made me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lolz Bullish but Iike it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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