mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 as bad as the NAM was at 18Z, before game time, the NAM will surely be the snowiest model on at least one model suite...count on it, it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Love the below zero Temps on the GFS and Euro for Friday morning. Any snow we get will be cement for sure by Friday. If temps do indeed dip that low it would make it 2 years in a row with below zero temps in March for this area...pretty incredible euro has a known snow cover bias with cold and the gfs has the same apparently post upgrade. never say never at dulles if it's close but even chopping 10 off MOS keeps above zero if just a bit. Single digits seem quite likely.. widespread below 0s probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z navgem is a straight nuke job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Time of year is similar to a storm we were hoping for two years ago about this time I believe. What is the level of risk with having wain the previous 6-12 hours providing a relatively warm/wet ground surface and this starting a few hours before sunrise that we end up seeing a "white rain" situation with significant compaction on the grass for ratios of 6 or 8 to 1 and almost nothing accumulating on roads/sidewalks due to the wet surface and sun angle? Or at this point would it be safe to dismiss those concerns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My fear is the models may be underestimating the SE ridge and a UKMET solution could be in play.12z unmet really wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z navgem is a straight nuke job. Bust or big event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Time of year is similar to a storm we were hoping for two years ago about this time I believe. What is the level of risk with having wain the previous 6-12 hours providing a relatively warm/wet ground surface and this starting a few hours before sunrise that we end up seeing a "white rain" situation with significant compaction on the grass for ratios of 6 or 8 to 1 and almost nothing accumulating on roads/sidewalks due to the wet surface and sun angle? Or at this point would it be safe to dismiss those concerns? It has been discussed that falling temps/time of day/rates should be enough to overcome but if you are looking for sure thing we are far from that. Level of risk is high anytime for our area. If we don't get anything, it has still been a decent few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z unmet really wasn't that bad. Taken verbatim it looked fine for northern Maryland but the best snows are definitely from the M/D line north. Looks like an advisory event for I-95 points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Taken verbatim it looked fine for northern Maryland but the best snows are definitely from the M/D line north. Looks like an advisory event for I-95 points south and east. was like 3-5 for that area. I don't think many are realistically expecting much more than that attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Bust or big event? Shouldn't we be asking you these questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shouldn't we be asking you these questions? Read the question I'm asking him. What is a nuke job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shouldn't we be asking you these questions? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Read the question I'm asking him. What is a nuke job? Crushing. Some areas would be in double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shouldn't we be asking you these questions? I don't know the terminology. What does nuke job mean? Lots of snow? Heat torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Shouldn't we be asking you these questions? well him asking that question doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have his own opinion of the solution. i took it as "don't put your shovels away yet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Crushing. Some areas would be in double digits. Ah ok! Thanks Chill. Glad it's a snow bomb vs torch. I'm still learning the forum terms ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't know the terminology. What does nuke job mean? Lots of snow? Heat torch? in weenieville always assume nuke job is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 in weenieville always assume nuke job is good for us. Good stuff lol! :-) hope the NAM comes back to a nuke job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 18z navgem is a straight nuke job. So we aren't getting any snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ah ok! Thanks Chill. Glad it's a snow bomb vs torch. I'm still learning the forum terms ;-) "Stone cold assassin" is the best one we use in my opinion...it's rare but when you see it good things are happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I don't know the terminology. What does nuke job mean? Lots of snow? Heat torch? I always thought 'nuke' was a meteorological term.......haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I always thought 'nuke' was a meteorological term.......Nuke is bombogenesis on weenie. This thread is probably being sniffed by algorithms now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nuke is bombogenesis on weenie. This thread is probably being sniffed by algorithms now. They're watching you especially On topic though - I think I can expect at least an inch or two and that will make me happy. Of course I hope we get more - but we've been doing pretty well with wintry precip recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The thing about the navgem is it's usually faster and more progressive than other models. This panel (12-18z)was the one that I found interesting. The flip happens well before. Between 2-4am from what I can see and the previous panel looks just as juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Crushing. Some areas would be in double digits. Double digit sleet is going to suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The thing about the navgem is it's usually faster and more progressive than other models. navgem has traditionally been overamped and snowbomb happy...but that's going back years and nobody has paid it serious attention in a long time so i don't know if that has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've said it once before, but I wish this would either speed up or slow down otherwise the majority of the snow might go unseen by those that aren't complete psychopath vampires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I've said it once before, but I wish this would either speed up or slow down otherwise the majority of the snow might go unseen by those that aren't complete psychopath vampires. Or those that have to keep an Air and Space Museum's sidewalks open for DC joggers that don't know when to quit. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Good stuff lol! :-) hope the NAM comes back to a nuke job Looking at the NAM is kind of like driving drunk, everyone says they won't do it, but everyone does it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 fwiw, here are meteocentre's estimates for the 12z and 18z GFS for DC. All units converted to American by request. 12z - about 0.7" qpf as snow, 0.2" as sleet 18z - about 0.25" qpf as snow, 0.35" as sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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