Interstate Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I just wish we could get a storm this year during normal hours while everyone is awake. So tired of waking up and only having a couple hours of snow before it shuts off. Saturday 2/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Saturday 2/21 I should clarify, I wish we could have an evening snow, not one during the early a.m. I'm fully aware of the benefits of nighttime during March winter weather events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yep, and even then you run the problem of melting unless you have (and keep) heavy rates. I dislike the drip...drip...drip that accompanies daytime late-season snows. One difference in this one and, say, early March of 2013, is that you have absolutely frigid ground. The drip, drip will be harder to come by..........................if we even get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM still well NW of the GFS and the EURO with the placement of the front and the precip. ETA: Would be just about changing over to snow by 15z, assuming there is no warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z NAM def not reading from the same playbook as the long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM still well NW of the GFS and the EURO with the placement of the front and the precip. ETA: Would be just about changing over to snow by 15z, assuming there is no warm layer. It looks like we changeover faster than 06z on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It looks like we changeover faster than 06z on instantweathermaps. And there's a pretty nice thump through the day on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It looks like we changeover faster than 06z on instantweathermaps. It looks like we changeover faster than 06z on instantweathermaps. Definitely all snow at 78 hours for DC. Lets see what moisture it can give us after the switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Decent run, don't like that it is during the day though. .4-.55 QPF after 7:00am, all of that is non-rain via IWM. **0.3-0.4" QPF in the 3 hours before 7:00am for Northern MD where temps are 33-35** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks like a huge hit if I'm reading it right ETA: surface temps lag a bit, but just a little colder and omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM looks like a huge hit if I'm reading it right ETA: surface temps lag a bit, but just a little colder and omg Yeah, the surface temps are lagging - but, yes, fix that and it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If Nam was quicker with the front it'd be a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Decent run, don't like that it is during the day though. Yeah if the NAM were right, we'd be waiting for a changeover after daybreak and then trying to accumulate during the day, reminds me of snowquester, although this at least has colder air coming through than snowquester. But, as others have said, this is the NAM past 60 hours so I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If Nam was quicker with the front it'd be a huge hit. I sure don't like having to wait on cold air in situations like this...fronts tend to be delayed longer than modeled has been my experience since moving here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ens are almost unanimous for a good hit. 6z gefs looks better than the 6z op. NAM is going to trend right in line with the ops imo. Overall, models have been basically showing a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal for days with the typical wobbles. My wag is we end up right in the 2-6" range. With a chance at some upside. A shutout looks very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BWI http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It looks like a fair amount of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I sure don't like having to wait on cold air in situations like this...fronts tend to be delayed longer than modeled has been my experience since moving here... The rain to snow deal last year flipped right on time but we were inside of 48 hours before really getting serious about flip times. I think we're good either way with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ens are almost unanimous for a good hit. 6z gefs looks better than the 6z op. NAM is going to trend right in line with the ops imo. Overall, models have been basically showing a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal for days with the typical wobbles. My wag is we end up right in the 2-6" range. With a chance at some upside. A shutout looks very unlikely. can't argue with this....I mean I wish I could ( ), but I can't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ens are almost unanimous for a good hit. 6z gefs looks better than the 6z op. NAM is going to trend right in line with the ops imo. Overall, models have been basically showing a 2-4/3-6 kind of deal for days with the typical wobbles. My wag is we end up right in the 2-6" range. With a chance at some upside. A shutout looks very unlikely. Euro is that upside potential, I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BWI http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt The column chills fast around hour 72. Based off NAM at then end of its range. Good times this week. Maximum wish casting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not sure why there's all this consternation over the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not sure why there's all this consternation over the NAM. we need to get apparent newbies like you into a mentoring program before you're allowed to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not sure why there's all this consternation over the NAM. Mine isn't meant to be consternation over the NAM, more general chatter about perils of a set-up where we are waiting for front to clear to flip snow. I do like general agreement of the long range and far more dependable models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 can't argue with this....I mean I wish I could ( ), but I can't Euro ensembles have both of us @ 6" snow on the means. 33 members with 6"+ solutions. But those maps are flawed. I see it more as .40-60 as frozen precip potential. Ratios and stickage probably won't = 10:1 but it's really hard to say what happens after the flip. The airmass pushing in is cold and there's a lot of gulf moisture streaming. Could be heavy snow with fatties for a while. Definitely won't be a sugar and flour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 People comparing this setup to snowquester are ridiculous. Surface temps will drop like a rock with good CAA. SQ had none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 People comparing this setup to snowquester are ridiculous. Surface temps will drop like a rock with good CAA. SQ had none of that. Agreed. There is zero comparison. Matt's comparison to Jan 2011 is much better even though there isn't a bowling ball approaching. When the flip happens it will be heavy wet snow that will stick quickly. Snow will become drier and lighter as time goes on. And there won't be lulls. It will snow until the boundary sinks too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I should clarify, I wish we could have an evening snow, not one during the early a.m. I'm fully aware of the benefits of nighttime during March winter weather events. It needs to happen when it can accumulate on the roads (night/early morning) and cancel things. Snow isn't real unless it annihilates the morning commute. The timing looks good but not great on this one. A TON of Euro ensemble members have the heaviest snow arriving in earnest mid to late morning into the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro ensembles have both of us @ 6" snow on the means. 33 members with 6"+ solutions. But those maps are flawed. I see it more as .40-60 as frozen precip potential. Ratios and stickage probably won't = 10:1 but it's really hard to say what happens after the flip. The airmass pushing in is cold and there's a lot of gulf moisture streaming. Could be heavy snow with fatties for a while. Definitely won't be a sugar and flour storm. gun to head, the way it looks now and has been looking is an areawide 3-5", with a few co-op and "trained" observers reporting 6"+ we'll need the GFS and Euro to jump on something much bigger for that to change in my mind.....like that area west of the Apps that has been getting hit hard on most of the models to jump over onto our side, but I've seen nothing so far to suggest that might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Agreed. There is zero comparison. Matt's comparison to Jan 2011 is much better even though there isn't a bowling ball approaching. When the flip happens it will be heavy wet snow that will stick quickly. Snow will become drier and lighter as time goes on. And there won't be lulls. It will snow until the boundary sinks too far south. Too much to ask for the front to plow through quickly only to get hung up just to our south? days and days of waves of LP riding along a stationary would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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