Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 But what about the NAM trend tho? that falls into the bust scenario of my 0-17.5" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sorry, I was out driving, my bad Looks nice though You should not be allowed to do that. Until the winter is over you should be by your computer 24/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ah yes, but that CAA is rooted in the sub-750 mb layers. Given the SE ridge and +NAO, the SW flow above 850 mb should continue during the majority of the event, which is gonna keep temps at that level marginal. When the 800-750 mb flow switches more W-NW, while the CAA may finally be working in, it's also likely syranora to the deep (sufficiently deep) moisture. Would be funny if this turned into a sleet storm down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Right on the edge at hr 63, but looks like snow. edit:it's exactly 0 degrees at 800 mb, the warmest layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 BWI sounding at 6Z Thursday morning.....that would be snow with some rimming with the ripping that would be occurring an hour later, it's fatties LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1007 79 -0.2 -0.9 95 0.7 -0.5 0 13 272.4 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.56 1 1000 139 -0.7 -1.1 97 0.4 -0.9 1 18 272.5 273.1 272.3 282.0 3.52 2 950 546 -3.5 -3.6 99 0.1 -3.6 356 28 273.6 274.1 272.3 282.0 3.08 3 900 974 -3.1 -3.3 98 0.2 -3.1 324 29 278.3 278.9 275.4 287.6 3.33 4 850 1429 -0.6 -0.8 99 0.2 -0.7 279 25 285.5 286.2 280.2 297.5 4.24 5 800 1915 0.3 0.1 99 0.2 0.2 247 30 291.5 292.3 283.6 305.4 4.82 6 750 2432 -0.2 -0.5 98 0.3 -0.3 241 41 296.4 297.2 285.7 310.9 4.94 7 700 2984 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.1 -1.6 239 51 300.8 301.6 287.2 315.3 4.82 8 650 3573 -3.3 -3.5 99 0.1 -3.4 235 62 305.2 306.0 288.5 319.2 4.56 9 600 4204 -6.1 -6.2 99 0.1 -6.1 234 69 309.1 309.8 289.3 321.7 4.02 10 550 4881 -9.5 -9.6 100 0.1 -9.6 235 74 312.8 313.4 289.8 323.5 3.36 11 500 5612 -13.7 -13.7 99 0.1 -13.7 239 78 316.4 316.9 290.3 325.0 2.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Right on the edge at hr 63, but looks like snow. Snow for sure, especially with the precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would be funny if this turned into a sleet storm down here! no...it wouldn't be funny at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 no...it wouldn't be funny at all... +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6Z Thursday at DCA LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 58 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.2 8 11 272.8 273.4 272.8 282.9 3.74 1 1000 137 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.5 -0.3 8 16 273.1 273.7 272.9 283.0 3.66 2 950 546 -2.9 -3.0 99 0.1 -3.0 1 25 274.2 274.7 272.9 283.0 3.21 3 900 974 -2.3 -2.5 98 0.2 -2.4 324 27 279.1 279.7 276.1 288.9 3.52 4 850 1430 0.0 -0.1 99 0.1 -0.0 270 18 286.2 286.9 280.8 298.8 4.46 5 800 1918 1.0 0.7 98 0.3 0.8 241 27 292.2 293.1 284.1 306.7 5.03 6 750 2437 0.6 0.0 96 0.6 0.3 239 39 297.2 298.1 286.1 312.3 5.10 7 700 2990 -1.2 -1.3 99 0.2 -1.3 235 49 301.2 302.1 287.5 316.1 4.95 8 650 3579 -3.1 -3.3 99 0.2 -3.2 229 61 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.6 4.61 9 600 4211 -5.8 -5.9 99 0.1 -5.8 230 71 309.5 310.2 289.5 322.3 4.11 10 550 4889 -9.1 -9.2 99 0.1 -9.1 236 77 313.3 314.0 290.1 324.4 3.47 11 500 5621 -13.3 -13.4 99 0.1 -13.3 244 82 316.9 317.4 290.5 325.8 2.73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mitch, I'd think you and I would be fine by then. Further s/e could be delayed. Hope not tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would be funny if this turned into a sleet storm down here! ...which is my fear. From a "conceptual model" standpoint, the synoptic setup and profiles are screaming sleet (or at least more than just your transient period of sleet) as much as the setup was screaming ice storm Sunday. PDII back in Feb '03 game me about 3-4" of sleet down in the RIC area. I'll pass, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Sleet melts slower. It might be the perfect snow for new winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 no...it wouldn't be funny at all... Well it's quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6Z Thursday at DCA LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 58 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.2 8 11 272.8 273.4 272.8 282.9 3.74 1 1000 137 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.5 -0.3 8 16 273.1 273.7 272.9 283.0 3.66 2 950 546 -2.9 -3.0 99 0.1 -3.0 1 25 274.2 274.7 272.9 283.0 3.21 3 900 974 -2.3 -2.5 98 0.2 -2.4 324 27 279.1 279.7 276.1 288.9 3.52 4 850 1430 0.0 -0.1 99 0.1 -0.0 270 18 286.2 286.9 280.8 298.8 4.46 5 800 1918 1.0 0.7 98 0.3 0.8 241 27 292.2 293.1 284.1 306.7 5.03 6 750 2437 0.6 0.0 96 0.6 0.3 239 39 297.2 298.1 286.1 312.3 5.10 7 700 2990 -1.2 -1.3 99 0.2 -1.3 235 49 301.2 302.1 287.5 316.1 4.95 8 650 3579 -3.1 -3.3 99 0.2 -3.2 229 61 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.6 4.61 9 600 4211 -5.8 -5.9 99 0.1 -5.8 230 71 309.5 310.2 289.5 322.3 4.11 10 550 4889 -9.1 -9.2 99 0.1 -9.1 236 77 313.3 314.0 290.1 324.4 3.47 11 500 5621 -13.3 -13.4 99 0.1 -13.3 244 82 316.9 317.4 290.5 325.8 2.73 Profile is quite a bit better at DCA, but right along that tight boundary it will be ripping ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 DCA at 9Z Thursday LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1011 58 -1.6 -2.1 97 0.4 -1.8 10 13 270.7 271.2 270.8 279.4 3.24 1 1000 142 -2.2 -2.7 97 0.5 -2.4 10 18 270.9 271.4 270.7 279.4 3.13 2 950 548 -5.3 -5.3 100 0.0 -5.3 10 24 271.8 272.3 270.7 279.2 2.70 3 900 970 -7.0 -7.2 99 0.2 -7.1 349 24 274.2 274.7 271.8 281.1 2.47 4 850 1420 -2.2 -2.3 99 0.1 -2.3 286 16 283.8 284.5 278.9 294.6 3.80 5 800 1905 0.3 0.1 99 0.2 0.3 237 27 291.5 292.3 283.6 305.5 4.83 6 750 2423 -0.1 -0.5 97 0.4 -0.3 239 38 296.5 297.4 285.7 311.1 4.92 7 700 2975 -1.3 -1.6 98 0.3 -1.4 239 53 301.0 301.9 287.3 315.7 4.88 8 650 3564 -3.1 -3.2 99 0.1 -3.1 237 68 305.5 306.4 288.6 319.7 4.65 9 600 4196 -5.3 -5.4 99 0.1 -5.4 235 78 309.9 310.7 289.8 323.3 4.25 10 550 4876 -8.7 -8.7 100 0.1 -8.7 236 83 313.8 314.5 290.4 325.4 3.60 11 500 5609 -13.0 -13.1 99 0.1 -13.0 242 91 317.2 317.7 290.6 326.3 2.79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Would be funny if this turned into a sleet storm down here! not really. that would be a terrible way to end winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Still looks like a 2-4/3-6 type of event. That really hasnt changed much today. A layer of sleet before the flip is complete is inevitable imo. Could be a fairly thick layer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's different like WXMan1 said is the flow above the cold air advection. It's SW! That's a warm direction. This is an unusual event and there aren't many analogs to compare to. First 5k feet might be screaming northerly and cold and there is a 1 degree speed bump upstairs that cuts totals down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6Z Thursday at DCA LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1010 58 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.2 8 11 272.8 273.4 272.8 282.9 3.74 1 1000 137 -0.1 -0.6 96 0.5 -0.3 8 16 273.1 273.7 272.9 283.0 3.66 2 950 546 -2.9 -3.0 99 0.1 -3.0 1 25 274.2 274.7 272.9 283.0 3.21 3 900 974 -2.3 -2.5 98 0.2 -2.4 324 27 279.1 279.7 276.1 288.9 3.52 4 850 1430 0.0 -0.1 99 0.1 -0.0 270 18 286.2 286.9 280.8 298.8 4.46 5 800 1918 1.0 0.7 98 0.3 0.8 241 27 292.2 293.1 284.1 306.7 5.03 6 750 2437 0.6 0.0 96 0.6 0.3 239 39 297.2 298.1 286.1 312.3 5.10 7 700 2990 -1.2 -1.3 99 0.2 -1.3 235 49 301.2 302.1 287.5 316.1 4.95 8 650 3579 -3.1 -3.3 99 0.2 -3.2 229 61 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.6 4.61 9 600 4211 -5.8 -5.9 99 0.1 -5.8 230 71 309.5 310.2 289.5 322.3 4.11 10 550 4889 -9.1 -9.2 99 0.1 -9.1 236 77 313.3 314.0 290.1 324.4 3.47 11 500 5621 -13.3 -13.4 99 0.1 -13.3 244 82 316.9 317.4 290.5 325.8 2.73 Given how marginal and how high up that warm air is...that's a classic sleet profile. As in, what you would see more often in the central part of the U.S. What bothers me is that there is a real possibility that for a few hours at least I and all the other easterners will be getting pinged while areas N-NW of the District are ripping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Mitch, I'd think you and I would be fine by then. Further s/e could be delayed. Hope not tho. oh yeah, I'm OK this run; .72" falls after 6Z at BWI I'm just hoping DCA doesn't get fooked, but rates are impressive; .74" falls at DCA after 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like it flips to sleet around midnight. The thickness charts scream sleet until perhaps 09Z. The 1000-850 chart gets that portion of the column under freezing at 03Z but the 1000-500 chart requires until after 09Z to get it done. ERS is gonna suggest go with soundings. I hear, but I learn slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 not really. that would be a terrible way to end winter Yeah, wouldn't be the greatest! But given a hypothetical choice between all or nearly all rain and a sleetfest...I'd take the sleet. Of course, would much rather have a short period of sleet while transitioning, then ripping snow the rest of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think it is entirely possible that we sleet for quite a while. It certainly has to be on our radar screen. Well it's quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Living 45 minutes wnw of DC has its perks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 What's different like WXMan1 said is the flow above the cold air advection. It's SW! That's a warm direction. This is an unusual event and there aren't many analogs to compare to. First 5k feet might be screaming northerly and cold and there is a 1 degree speed bump upstairs that cuts totals down Which is why, if anyone has noticed, the 1000-500 mb thicknesses are still >540 DM even while the 850 Ts are tanking. It's that layer within 850-700 mb that's killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Given how marginal and how high up that warm air is...that's a classic sleet profile. As in, what you would see more often in the central part of the U.S. What bothers me is that there is a real possibility that for a few hours at least I and all the other easterners will be getting pinged while areas N-NW of the District are ripping snow. There is little doubt that 6z is sleet. The question is what happens between 6z and 9z and whether 9z is snow (I think it is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The thickness charts scream sleet until perhaps 09Z. The 1000-850 chart gets that portion of the column under freezing at 03Z but the 1000-500 chart requires until after 09Z to get it done. ERS is gonna suggest go with soundings. I hear, but I learn slow. Thicknesses are ok. Just another tool in the box but soundings give a better view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Lol...sleet bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Lol...sleet bomb? This is nothing new...It was apparent on the models last night and prior to that, that the 750-800 layer lagged 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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