Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 this is an amazing SE ridge/Positive NAO configuration. Snow making pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At 9z it is still iffy for DC due to a warm layer above 850. Can't wait to see the 66 panel though. 66 is dead ripping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 these early soundings are from instantweathermaps? didn't wxusaf say they looked warmer than CoD? I use the soundings on here from AmWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Good to go... 800 is -1 and everything else is fine Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 these early soundings are from instantweathermaps? didn't wxusaf say they looked warmer than CoD? just go with the coldest soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is a nice hit, 7-8" with 10:1 ratios on the AWX maps. It's always fun to save the best storm of the season for March. I'd love to get over that 8" mark. Earlier flip could help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The instantweathermaps snow maps seem way off, only 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 IWM's maps don't look that great, but they use their own calculations for ratios. Can we expect less than 9-10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I hear ya, but the globals have been showing a general scenario like this for days. We live in DC. We are bust central. We bust all the time, and even when we don't, events tend to unfold somewhat differently than expected. That is part of what makes it fun. I think most are aware of that, and it isn't necessary to add the caveat that we could bust. The threat is now at 60 hours. There is no reason we shouldn't be following it closely, or getting "excited". It might not work out. If not, no big deal. I haven't gotten the sense that too many people are emotionally invested in this. But I could be wrong. i don't think it's necessary to say we should bust, but sometimes the vibe of the posts indicates it shouldn't. this time around, i kind of saw through it. i think people are excited because it's one of the last chances we might have before spring, which in that case, would be understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Even in the colder solutions there was a warm nose in soundings today. Strange to think given all the CAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Even in the colder solutions there was a warm nose in soundings today. Strange to think given all the CAA Its in the 700-800 layer... if we can get rippage we should be able to overcome that warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 IWM's maps don't look that great, but they use their own calculations for ratios. Can we expect less than 9-10:1? Very possible from DC south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The instantweathermaps snow maps seem way off, only 2-4" I thought they looked off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 But what about the NAM trend tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I thought they looked off as well. You still get hammered. It is BWI and south which is less than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW from WPC: Day 3 chances of more than 4 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Day 3 chances of more than 8 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 IWM's maps don't look that great, but they use their own calculations for ratios. Can we expect less than 9-10:1? The big problem with IWM is that they are still indicating sleet at 09z, whereas evidently AmWx is snow at that time. Tells you that we shouldn't be parsing solutions when they are so close the modeling sites show it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The upcoming pattern is one that we simply do not see very often. It is possible for swings in the models. It is an event where everything must be perfect so bust potential is high. The NAM might very well be on to something or it might not. It's all about the timing of that front and precip rates. Either of those stray from ideal and its a near non event. Agree and have said it a couple times already. This is the narrowest needle to thread for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You still get hammered. It is BWI and south which is less than 12Z. I know lol, but the DC area looks wrong on IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 But what about the NAM trend tho? every storm this year, their has been at least one dr no. its annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW from WPC: Day 3 chances of more than 4 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Day 3 chances of more than 8 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif They were posted already. I think a 70% chance of more than 4" for me is wack though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW from WPC: Day 3 chances of more than 4 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Day 3 chances of more than 8 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif Slow Yoda, slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The instantweathermaps snow maps seem way off, only 2-4" I think it is entirely possible that we sleet for quite a while. It certainly has to be on our radar screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 every storm this year, their has been at least one dr no. its annoying You warming up to 4-6" or is it still like 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Even in the colder solutions there was a warm nose in soundings today. Strange to think given all the CAA Ah yes, but that CAA is rooted in the sub-750 mb layers. Given the SE ridge and +NAO, the SW flow above 850 mb should continue during the majority of the event, which is gonna keep temps at that level marginal. When the 800-750 mb flow switches more W-NW, while the CAA may finally be working in, it's also likely syranora to the deep (sufficiently deep) moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW from WPC: Day 3 chances of more than 4 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Day 3 chances of more than 8 inches -- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_08.gif Yoda I posted this like 2 pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You warming up to 4-6" or is it still like 1-3"? He is at 1-3" at the new partner site Jay and Lee's wintry mix . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 i don't think it's necessary to say we should bust, but sometimes the vibe of the posts indicates it shouldn't. this time around, i kind of saw through it. i think people are excited because it's one of the last chances we might have before spring, which in that case, would be understandable. I don't think there is any point in any winter where many of us wouldn't be excited that the GFS/Euro show 4"+ of snow within 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I think it is entirely possible that we sleet for quite a while. It certainly has to be on our radar screen. Very true, although don't the lower res models tend to underestimate dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yoda I posted this like 2 pages back. Sorry, I was out driving, my bad Looks nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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