Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The nam was awfUK last weekend till its 6z run on Saturday..3 hours before storm started crushed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The nam was awfUK last weekend till its 6z run on Saturday..3 hours before storm started crushed us It had a precip cutoff south of Baltimore 12 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 it seemed kind of odd to me reading posts on here lately. yes, we have a thursday snowfall modeled...but it's monday afternoon...and it's march. if it was a snowstorm from start to finish then i'd be more invested in tracking it, but as-is, i need to wait until tuesday afternoon to get excited over setups like this. Most of the best forecasters here are also snow fiends.. so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 People who know better know how to parse the data. If you get suckered in with NAM and SREF run "goodies" then whose fault is that? Certainly not Mitch or Yoda who is telling you what it shows. If you haven't learned how to parse models and know their faults and biases, then how is that anybody's fault but your own? clearly, it's obama's fault. everybody knows that. the panickers are just expressing dissapointment over one potential outcome, even if they can't parse data like master parsers yoda and mitch. if the hypothesis is that the nam and sref suck outside 24 hours or whatever, then 75-84h should not even be looked at. but it's like a traffic accident. it's hard not to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM h5 pattern is in another world. Any model on its own should be viewed skeptically.. The NAM has done pretty well lately at least in some cases though. Since it's a totally different look than other models it's probably not worth getting too worked up.. tho you would usually want it on your side with a temp profile even at this range. Gotta just assume something went haywire for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM was the first solution to nail the ice storm over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM was the first solution to nail the ice storm over the weekend. while that may be true it also wasn't great with the 2/21 event 8 days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM was the first solution to nail the ice storm over the weekend. That's great and all but with the 2/21 storm it showed me getting nothing 12 hours before the storm, and i got 9". It has a 2% of being right, but it is not a good model at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM was the first solution to nail the ice storm over the weekend.That was probably a spot it should excel. Maybe? It does tend to lead the way on colder solutions at the sfc at least. Think it did so last weekend to some degree too around here. But is it going to model the rest better than a GFS/euro combo in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ugly run for us, big run for NYC. I'll be worried if the globals are on board with the NAM at 0z. if by big you mean 1-3" of mostly sleet sure. The trajectory of this storm puts nyc not much better off then us if it trends north. Nam is good for state college pa to poconos to southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 if by big you mean 1-3" of mostly sleet sure. The trajectory of this storm puts nyc not much better off then us if it trends north. Nam is good for state college pa to poconos to southern New England. Ah yeah I just looked quick at the orientation of precip on the maps. Hopefully it's out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The upcoming pattern is one that we simply do not see very often. It is possible for swings in the models. It is an event where everything must be perfect so bust potential is high. The NAM might very well be on to something or it might not. It's all about the timing of that front and precip rates. Either of those stray from ideal and its a near non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is about to thumb its nose at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 it seemed kind of odd to me reading posts on here lately. yes, we have a thursday snowfall modeled...but it's monday afternoon...and it's march. if it was a snowstorm from start to finish then i'd be more invested in tracking it, but as-is, i need to wait until tuesday afternoon to get excited over setups like this. I hear ya, but the globals have been showing a general scenario like this for days. We live in DC. We are bust central. We bust all the time, and even when we don't, events tend to unfold somewhat differently than expected. That is part of what makes it fun. I think most are aware of that, and it isn't necessary to add the caveat that we could bust. The threat is now at 60 hours. There is no reason we shouldn't be following it closely, or getting "excited". It might not work out. If not, no big deal. I haven't gotten the sense that too many people are emotionally invested in this. But I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 LOL.....almost identical to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gfs barely pushed the flip time back. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is about to thumb its nose at the NAM Looks like it flips to sleet around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Might be a hair slower on the flip but rippage after 6z. Looks like 12z mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is a nuke Who is it going to nuke?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 lol. poor NAM. Sometimes I think it tries to be like a high school girl that goes goth for the attention factor, just tries to be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Might be a hair slower on the flip but rippage after 6z. Looks like 12z mostly. Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Might be a hair slower on the flip but rippage after 6z. Looks like 12z mostly. someone posted a few months ago that the 18z gfs is given a fresh data ingestion. Thats the line i use anyway when it has a good run. Euro/GFS in a similar camp is a good camp to be at right before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looks like it flips to sleet around midnight. seems to end up about the same per maps in the end. about all we can ask for outside the not not DC/NOVA thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GFS is a nice hit, 7-8" with 10:1 ratios on the AWX maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At 9z it is still iffy for DC due to a warm layer above 850. Can't wait to see the 66 panel though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Pretty steady stuff from the big 2 today. My wag is the Ukie/ggem move the flip time earlier @ 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 these early soundings are from instantweathermaps? didn't wxusaf say they looked warmer than CoD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm looking at soundings for DCA, and I think it is pretty clear DC is frozen by 06z and about 0.7" falls after that. When DC flips is hard to say. i think no later than 10z, but I can't imagine 5z to 10z is all sleet. I could even see snow by 6z-7z if rates are high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At 9z it is still iffy for DC due to a warm layer above 850. Can't wait to see the 66 panel though. Good to go... 800 is -1 and everything else is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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