PDIII Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well it looks like the NAM is the trendsetter here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I wish the Euro would run 4 times a day and the NAM zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Everyone jumped on him at the same time. It kinda sucks. Who jumped tho? I explained why it wasn't a trend. I don't get this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Remember the worst blizzard in the history of mankind that the NAM gave NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yawn. I'd love to get Matt's take on the NAM. The 2/26 event should be starting any minute now, and I will get 0.15" more QPF than Randy who lives 3 miles to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Definitely not a trend yet. We'll know in a half hour if it has any legs imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well it looks like the NAM is the trendsetter here what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 PG seems to have a thing for the NAM. Less than 12 hours before we started on 2/21.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45795-weekend-mixed-bag-of-wtf-storm-thread/?p=3425062 Who jumped tho? I explained why it wasn't a trend. I don't get this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I would not mind some of the other models coming a tad north with the qpf max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Remember the worst blizzard in the history of mankind that the NAM gave NYC? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ugh can we just toss it? It's the North American Model and it has the worst verification of any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 what? Half the time I can't tell if people are joking, trolling, or are serious. It seems to have gotten awful lately in the model threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Its the same 4-5 posters...classic panic but you also have in the know vets like yoder and mitchell selling a bag of goodies based on out of range previous NAM and SREF runs. why not say, there they go again, the same ones causing unfounded hope on simulations that are sure to change. it's not just the usual suspects panicking, it's the same group of long-timers that jump on anything resembling good snow odds setting it up for the other ones to panic when things evolve, which they always do. very few events here have locked and stayed locked 3 or 4 days out, like dec 09 (even then there was a run or two that pulled the rug) gotta look at both tails of the distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM has been on a heater lately. But our winter heater might be more powerful. Nothing is locked in from a few days out though despite model agreement.. one of the great falsehoods of this place. it seemed kind of odd to me reading posts on here lately. yes, we have a thursday snowfall modeled...but it's monday afternoon...and it's march. if it was a snowstorm from start to finish then i'd be more invested in tracking it, but as-is, i need to wait until tuesday afternoon to get excited over setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 but you also have in the know vets like yoder and mitchell selling a bag of goodies based on out of range previous NAM and SREF runs. why not say, there they go again, the same ones causing unfounded hope on simulations that are sure to change. it's not just the usual suspects panicking, it's the same group of long-timers that jump on anything resembling good snow odds setting it up for the other ones to panic when things evolve, which they always do. very few events here have locked and stayed locked 3 or 4 days out, like dec 09 (even then there was a run or two that pulled the rug) gotta look at both tails of the distribution People who know better know how to parse the data. If you get suckered in with NAM and SREF run "goodies" then whose fault is that? Certainly not Mitch or Yoda who is telling you what it shows. If you haven't learned how to parse models and know their faults and biases, then how is that anybody's fault but your own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Instead of using anecdotal recollections, how about we score the 12Z GFS vs 18Z NAM right now and we'll see which one is better...NAM obviously has an advantage as it is the 18z run so closer in time. For DCA at 9z on Thursday - Let's see which one is closer. 850 Temps GFS: -2.1 NAM: +10.1 Amount of QPF that falls after flip GFS: 0.58" NAM - There is no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 HPC likes the chances. I'll ride with them....no offense to prognosticators here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Fresh off the press Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Ugh can we just toss it? It's the North American Model and it has the worst verification of any model. North American Mesoscale Model - it's specifically designed for mesoscale features. I would trust the globals more - at least until they show the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Fresh off the press Hahaha....beat ya!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Hahaha....beat ya!!! I can't see your maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Instead of using anecdotal recollections, how about we score the 12Z GFS vs 18Z NAM right now and we'll see which one is better...NAM obviously has an advantage as it is the 18z run so closer in time. For DCA at 9z - Let's see which one is closer. 850 Temps GFS: -2.1 NAM: +10.1 Amount of QPF that falls after flip GFS: 0.58" NAM - There is no snow The NAM h5 pattern is in another world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I can't see your maps Yeah, but you can read. Smoked your ass ......by about 5 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The NAM h5 pattern is in another world. Look, for all we know the NAM could be on to something. I don't think anybody here is saying it absolutely can't be right. But to call it a trend or to go all in angst about it before we see if any other models can confirm is a little silly given what we know of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NCEP obvs didn't see the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I love when HPC releases those maps directly after the NAM just shi**ing on its doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yeah, but you can read. Smoked your ass ......by about 5 seconds You sir, have won the internet. Congrats. Close your eyes to see your prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Look, for all we know the NAM could be on to something. I don't think anybody here is saying it absolutely can't be right. But to call it a trend or to go all in angst about it before we see if any other models can confirm is a little silly given what we know of the model. It's a wretched model at this range and it isn't very good 12 hours from the event either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 You sir, have won the internet. Congrats. Close your eyes to see your prize. I just see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I love when HPC releases those maps directly after the NAM just shi**ing on its doorstep The HPC are seasoned professionals, and as such would never take the NAM seriously at 72 hours We are going to start scoring it. 18z NAM - 3/2/15, Amount of snow for DCA - 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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