WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm curious to see HPC thoughts on this with this afternoon's winter products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Damn....euro says we're going to be frigid the morning after this storm. Probs too cold, but impressive for this late date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Last March, for the March 2-3 event, there wasn't much on the ground early in the morning but we got banded for a few hours after that. Ended up with around 5" where I'm at. It was in the low-mid 20s even in the afternoon. The tricky thing with that event last year was the tight QPF gradient, as I recall. Then there was also March 1-2, 2009...change to snow pre-dawn, not much at first, but some good bands went through in the morning. I recall that it stayed in the 20s all day for that one as well. I get your point about the temps during the morning, but 3/1-2/09 was snow from the previous evening onwards-- it just didn't stick well at first in the places where it wasn't coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I suggested he add a way to choose your own snow ratio. Imagine the maps. But yes to Bob.. it's worth having all year at this point and Ryan adds new stuff constantly. thats like asking an alcoholic to choose his own ABC store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weatherbell is the gold standard, especially if you want to give your hard earned money to right wing deniers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 thats like asking an alcoholic to choose his own ABC store 90:1 snowmaps would be huge on Facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weatherbell is the gold standard, especially if you want to give your hard earned money to right wing deniers. Ryan may be slightly biased but he generally has a good deal of science in his corner when so. The others.. no comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weatherbell is the gold standard, especially if you want to give your hard earned money to right wing deniers. LOL! Where can we get left wing doomsday maps? JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I get your point about the temps during the morning, but 3/1-2/09 was snow from the previous evening onwards-- it just didn't stick well at first in the places where it wasn't coming down hard. Ah, good point. I couldn't recall all the details, but now that you mention that...I seem to remember there were a lot of closures announced the night of the 1st. Woke up thinking it was a huge bust because there wasn't much on the ground, then *bam!*, we got banded. I was only mentioning that event and the one from last March because they were kind of similar in how remarkably cold it stayed throughout the daylight hours (in the 20s). Could thrown in St. Pat's day from last year too, though it wasn't quite as cold (but it was 2 weeks later, so still remarkable!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weatherbell is the gold standard, especially if you want to give your hard earned money to right wing deniers. I do my best to deny the right wing every chance I get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seems like those greys shades have been living in Kentucky the past month. They must be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That Euro model has been consistent for the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The only thing I wish WxBell would add is point-and-click soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seems like those greys shades have been living in Kentucky the past month. They must be buried. It's weird because WxBell shows a 13" jackpot in central Kentucky, but EuroWx shows a large portion of the state 15"+. I would go with WxBell on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 thats about a widespread a snowstorm ive seen in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Looking forward to watches going up tomorrow with the afternoon afd. I suppose technically they could go up in the morning. That would be awesome to get a +36 hour lead on a Winter Storm Watch... seems like they have been waiting longer than that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 It's weird because WxBell shows a 13" jackpot in central Kentucky, but EuroWx shows a large portion of the state 15"+. I would go with WxBell on this one. I think WB uses 10:1 ratios while EuroWx tries to account for ratios (thus showing higher totals in this case). In this case, I guess it thinks greater than 10:1 ratios will occur in Kentucky/West Virginia, though I'd have my doubts as betting on ratios usually doesn't work out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 That Euro model has been consistent for the last 2 days. If you mean by today and yesterday, I agree. On Saturday, you posted the same map that had that stripe in Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 15z SREFs have 0c 2mT and 850 0C line crossing through DCA around 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Despite the differences in timing, the GFS, GGEM, and Euro all center the axis of heaviest snowfall in central / northern MD. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 15z SREFs have 0c 2mT and 850 0C line crossing through DCA around 09z So it flips later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Despite the differences in timing, the GFS, GGEM, and Euro all center the axis of heaviest snowfall in central / northern MD. I'll take it. It's been HoCo and Moco all year. Why not again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So it flips later? Prob flips ~5am or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Prob flips ~5am or so Sounds a bit earlier than what the NAM/Ukie indicated? So maybe sort of in-between the GFS/Euro and NAM/Ukie I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So it flips later? really not an "it" since he is referring to a mean of many models, which is why it probably not worth considering at this range (and some would successfully argue at any range I suppose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 FWIW, 10 members are higher than the mean (5") on the 15z SREFs plumes for DCA: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150302&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Flood Watch out west of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Weatherbell just added a 15 to 1 snowfall ratio variable to the ECMWF maps. Produces 10"+ of snowmap snow for the region thursday. heh. oh thank God those maps were always too low on snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 So to recap DC flip time from the 12z runs if I'm remembering correctly: GFS 1 am Euro 3 am NAM ~6 am UKIE 7 am GGEM 7 am Sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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