Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:25 PM, Bob Chill said: Good range. 4" seems kinda easy at this point. 8" is a different story. Someone to the nw or even ne could pull off double digits. I'm just assuming an overall 10-1 ratio. We may have some fluff when things get cold but the beginning should be a <10-1 pasting for a time.Yeah could be. 4-6 is a tight range tho. I haven't put a ton of thought into ratios. My guess is bad ratios initially will balance out late making it fairly close to climo on the avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:25 PM, StudentOfClimatology said: You add an hour..7pm becomes 8pm, 1pm becomes 2pm, etc And more critically: "z" stands for zulu, as in "Zulu Time", aka Greenwich Meat Time (GMT). So, if the OP is ever not sure what the current shift is, just Google "current Greenwich Mean Time" and he/she will get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:24 PM, packfan98 said: AcePuppy, can you please post the eurowx ice map for the southern folks? Thanks! Here you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Something to consider. If moderated snow continues into Thursday night, roads will be tough to clear before Friday morning. With the temps that are forecast, I could see roads being awful all the way into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:28 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Sun will not mean anything in this event. This is not a pi** as* light-moderate event starting at 12 noon and trying to accumulate in 33* air. Snow on the ground by sunrise, snowing moderately+ into the afternoon, temp around 30. I agree that it wouldn't preclude a 4-10" thump -- just saying that the exact same setup at night probably yields an extra inch or two. Not a big deal...I'm just being greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Man. Every model absolutely pummels NOVA especially Leesburg west. I would obviously prefer the Euro for strictly selfish reasons. But somebody, most likely in the favored spots, is getting a double digit snowfall from this one. We will have scored on 2 very different but very weird setups if this comes to fruition. Just a crazy 12Z suite for a March 5th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:28 PM, Tenman Johnson said: Sun will not mean anything in this event. This is not a pi** as* light-moderate event starting at 12 noon and trying to accumulate in 33* air. Snow on the ground by sunrise, snowing moderately+ into the afternoon, temp around 30..5"+ in 6 hrs will crush roads regardless but you do have to consider it is March at least slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 damn. these 12z runs are enough to motivate me to clear out my garage so i can move my luxury automobile inside to keep dry. my snowblower only can handle 8", so i'd prefer something less than that. 0z suite might bring the board down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:32 PM, Ian said: .5"+ in 6 hrs will crush roads regardless but you do have to consider it is March at least slightly. If February were a real month, it would have 31 days and it would still be February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:34 PM, 84 Hour NAM said: If February were a real month, it would have 31 days and it would still be February. We can call Thursday Feb 33rd if it makes it easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:25 PM, WxMan1 said: The only thing that would concern me (heck, it's not even that big of a deal with those rates), is the fact that the bulk of snow would be falling during the day. I realize that the BL and surface layer will be plenty cold, but the early March sun angle will factor in like it did not with the pre-dawn event last St Patty's Day (when here in Crofton we got 8.5"). Nothing we can do about, but something to keep in mind. Even over the elevated areas out west that were all snow on March 6, 2013, while they were plenty cold at the surface, they saw their accumulation rate ("efficiency") cut back a bit after 12Z. I'll take what we get, but honestly would love it if most of it fell at night. 3/3/14 stuck very well, even on downtown main roads with light to moderate 8:1 snow. We did get a head start pre-dawn, and temps were in the mid to upper teens. I think all the March caveats are legit, but potentially they could be overcome if this goes according to plan (ha). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 not sure why people dont think it cant snow March 5. There is a better chance for snow on march 5 than december 5th(i know blasphemy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This is basically the last storm. Miles well enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I thought we were forbidden from posting Euro maps from Weatherbell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:36 PM, Ji said: not sure why people dont think it cant snow March 5. There is a better chance for snow on march 5 than december 5th(i know blasphemy) dec 5 is a myth, and march is the new winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:14 PM, mitchnick said: whoa.....those heavy totals that were WEST of the Apps are starting to link up east of the Apps by tonight or tomorrow, the Euro will have GFS type totals I bet.....OK, I hope Yup. Although snow maps are of questionable value, it's nice to see those darker shades creep eastward. MDstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:38 PM, AcePuppy said: This is basically the last storm. Miles well enjoy it. I know for a fact Miles is pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:38 PM, AcePuppy said: This is basically the last storm. Miles well enjoy it. you meant "might as", right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:36 PM, Ji said: not sure why people dont think it cant snow March 5. There is a better chance for snow on march 5 than december 5th(i know blasphemy) Then why isn't Christmas in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:38 PM, Ian said: I know for a fact Miles is pumped. Gonna be fun to see which banter posts are deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I know to start the ratio will be under 10:1... but when it starts to rip and temp falls... with the ratio ever go over 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:39 PM, mapgirl said: you meant "might as", right? You don't know Miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:41 PM, interstate said: I know to start the ratio will be under 10:1... but when it starts to rip and temp falls... with the ratio ever go over 10:1? Just plan on 9:1 for the whole event and they would cancel each other out! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:19 PM, stormtracker said: 0z = 7pm 6z-1am 12z-7am 18z 1pm Ah, now it makes sense (well kinda, lol Don't know why the Zs' don't start on regular hours) Thanks (Btw Nice profile pic! Are you a Beethoven fan, btw?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:38 PM, MDstorm said: Yup. Although snow maps are of questionable value, it's nice to see those darker shades creep eastward. MDstorm. The snow maps are great for an apples-to-apples comparison to previous model runs... that's about it. It pretty clearly shows if the model is trending colder/wetter or warmer/drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:43 PM, midatlanticweather said: Just plan on 9:1 for the whole event and they would cancel each other out! LOL! sounds feasible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:44 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Ah, now it makes sense (well kinda, lol Don't know why the Zs' don't start on regular hours) Thanks (Btw Nice profile pic! Are you a Beethoven fan, btw?) "Z" is based on Zulu/UTC/Greenwich time. We are 5 hrs behind UTC, so 00z aka 12am Z/UTC/GMT = 7PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The best analogy to the modeled temps as of now is 3/9/99 for the daylight portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm having a tough time controlling my anxiety about the nam run coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 On 3/3/2015 at 6:50 PM, Bob Chill said: I'm having a tough time controlling my anxiety about the nam run coming up soon It's a trend setter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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