yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Took a quick peek at the 18z GEFS; hr 66 looks very nice... its worthy IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:46 PM, mapgirl said: Deep moisture? Deep barometer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:32 PM, Weatherguy701 said: I would pay money to see 6" of sleet. One more experience for the extreme run. Done that (actually closer to 8) in Feb 03 storm. Forecast was for 20-24 inches of snow, started and stayed sleet entire event...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:54 PM, UVVmet84 said: Quote What is the NDFD? As the foundation of the NWS Digital Services Program, the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) consists of gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements (e.g., cloud cover, maximum temperature). NDFD contains a seamless mosaic of digital forecasts from NWS field offices working in collaboration with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Ah, I guess I could have just googled that. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:56 PM, yoda said: Took a quick peek at the 18z GEFS; hr 66 looks very nice... its worthy IMO DCA 72 hr QPF at hr 78 on 18z GEFS is 2.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:58 PM, yoda said: DCA 72 hr QPF at hr 78 on 18z GEFS is 2.22" go ahead yoda, just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:56 PM, yoda said: Took a quick peek at the 18z GEFS; hr 66 looks very nice... its worthy IMO problem is that isn't all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:53 PM, cwgNAS said: That is precisely why I entitled the post "Hmmm". I don't know who issues those forecasts, but I know those maps aren't model generated. Lol... If only you knew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:58 PM, yoda said: DCA 72 hr QPF at hr 78 on 18z GEFS is 2.22" WHAT??? Microburst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 2.22" storm total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:38 PM, Ian said: I grew up in two towns of less than 5,000 and one less than 20,000 so I know the city isn't the greatest thing ever. Tho if I wanted to live in not the city it may not be this area.. Jobs are good though. I kinda like the 80 dew point obs too.. Ain't getting that in Manchester. i love dc...it's one of the greatest cities on the planet. just like being able to leave it at the end of the day or evening. jobs are becoming more and more location agnostic. it's always quaint when people root for snow related opm delays or shutdowns, so they don't have to "go in to" work. anybody that can't do their work from somewhere else will be left behind eventually, or be stuck with wage ceilings. love height of summer days in the city. 95 and tropical humid is the best. makes my bones feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Here's my latestCWG article on the threat if anyone cares. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/02/accumulating-snow-possible-wednesday-night-into-thursday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:28 PM, usedtobe said: Here's my latestCWG article on the threat if anyone cares. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/02/accumulating-snow-possible-wednesday-night-into-thursday/ An excellent read sir. It certainly captures the plausible scenarios quite well. Option 3 is not pleasant to consider though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 10:56 PM, wxdude64 said: Done that (actually closer to 8) in Feb 03 storm. Forecast was for 20-24 inches of snow, started and stayed sleet entire event...... That was before my time (joking). It's been more than a decade, would be nice to see it again without the HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:28 PM, usedtobe said: Here's my latestCWG article on the threat if anyone cares. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/02/accumulating-snow-possible-wednesday-night-into-thursday/ 30% chance of 4 inches 72 hours out is a bullish call for wes. He also adds the caveat that it is conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:21 PM, ers-wxman1 said: 2.22" storm total? yes... sorry if it was confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:01 PM, WestminsterDeathband said: problem is that isn't all snow... A good amount is though... all depends on the changeover time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:38 PM, yoda said: yes... sorry if it was confusing How much of that is frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Is this set up an example of a strong barclinic zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Very nice read Wes. It's asking a lot to get 5"+ in the cities with this setup. I hope we haven't seen the best model runs yet but unfortunately my wag is we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 At hr 66, 16 of the 20 GEFS members suggest >0.50" QPF in a six hour period... how much is snow depends on changeover time, which some members are already in the middle of doing that at 60 ETA: There are a few members that have DCA around or >0.75" QPF in a six hour period -- c000/p019/p007 -- hr 66 is ripping snow on those 3 as the thicknesses have passed back just after hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:41 PM, PDIII said: Is this set up an example of a strong barclinic zone? I would say so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I'm going with 1-12". Feeling good about my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm going with 1-12". Feeling good about my call. I thought Ian already made the 0-17 call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm going with 1-12". Feeling good about my call. Bullish. I think you should lower it to 0-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 LOL...I took a risk on that 1". And wxdude, you're nuts. No way we get more than 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm going with 1-12". Feeling good about my call. Pretty clear this one is falling apart. It will return 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:47 PM, wxdude64 said: I thought Ian already made the 0-17 call? 0-17.5... keep it straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:41 PM, Bob Chill said: Very nice read Wes. It's asking a lot to get 5"+ in the cities with this setup. I hope we haven't seen the best model runs yet but unfortunately my wag is we have. My fear is the models may be underestimating the SE ridge and a UKMET solution could be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 11:28 PM, usedtobe said: Here's my latestCWG article on the threat if anyone cares. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/02/accumulating-snow-possible-wednesday-night-into-thursday/ well done and covers the scenarios nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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