LongRanger Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Snow to rain to snow spread across 3 days, what are some similar events in the past? None leap to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:18 PM, PhineasC said: We want big QPF. We get screwed on events like this when the rates never materialize and we get light non-sticking wet snow for 12 hours with multiple drizzle lulls. Drizzle lulls are the worst! What is the cold forecast for Thursday night? Thursday Friday School Snow day seems possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Classic responses on how these model runs swing to one solution to another. The good thing is we want to see a lot of qpf with this event once that arctic air gets in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Individual GFS ensemble members are very juicy at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:30 PM, ezweather said: Classic responses on how these model runs swing to one solution to another. The good thing is we want to see a lot of qpf with this event once that arctic air gets in place. Which is usually much slower to happen than what the models spit out. People are always carrying on about threading the needle. Well, IMO, this is the smallest eye we've threaded to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Here's a closer look at the sounding for BWI using Bufkit. This is at 6z when the full flip occurs. The sounding shows it ripping snow, but probably not the best for snow growth. A ton of qpf to work with though, so rates in that depiction would easily conquer any touchy mid level layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krasnyoktyabr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:28 PM, midatlanticweather said: Drizzle lulls are the worst! What is the cold forecast for Thursday night? Thursday Friday School Snow day seems possible The literal GFS says low single digits Friday morning. Cold enough to turn all the wet snow and ice into a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS mean has the surface temps in the low single digits Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:31 PM, yoda said: Individual GFS ensemble members are very juicy at 72 At hr 72, 15 of the 20 members have QPF of >0.5" at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:34 PM, krasnyoktyabr said: The literal GFS says low single digits Friday morning. Cold enough to turn all the wet snow and ice into a glacier. And a 4 day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Cobb output for BWI from the 12Z GFS shows 9.6" snow. Has .85 fall as snow, so even taking some off of that it's a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:35 PM, yoda said: At hr 72, 15 of the 20 members have QPF of >0.5" at DCA Good to hear - though we're just about to the point where the OP should be taken over the ensembles. Curious what the other five show, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 A large amount of the members of the GEFS 72 hr QPF have 2"+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:37 PM, snowfan said: Cobb output for BWI from the 12Z GFS shows 9.6" snow. Has .85 fall as snow, so even taking some off of that it's a good event. westminster is ~8" on .6 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:38 PM, nj2va said: Good to hear - though we're just about to the point where the OP should be taken over the ensembles. Curious what the other five show, though? 2 look to be misses to the S/SE of us... the other 3 have QPF in the 0.25-0.50 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:37 PM, snowfan said: Cobb output for BWI from the 12Z GFS shows 9.6" snow. Has .85 fall as snow, so even taking some off of that it's a good event. 5.4" at DCA. Delay in the changeover. Goes from Rain to SNPL somewhere between 6z and 9z. 8.7" at Westminster 9.4" at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:39 PM, yoda said: A large amount of the members of the GEFS 72 hr QPF have 2"+ QPF That's storm total including all the rain on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 GEFS 24hr precip ending hr 90. Pretty solid support for good precip post hr 66. Surface freezing just nw of the cities @ hr 66. Looks like strong support for the op solution with an earlier flip than what the ggem/ukie are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:41 PM, WxUSAF said: That's storm total including all the rain on Wednesday? Yes... some members approach 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Even if 12z Euro looks solid (like 4-8 inches total with snow starting 1-4am), I can't feel good on this yet. I think a NAM/UKMET blend has worked just as well as a GFS/EURO blend this year. SREF's are garbage compared to NAM. I will likely be bearish (see redhead Ed on Twitter) right up until the start of snow or if a GFS/EURO solution wins out and we are ripping by 3:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Yea, I think we can live with this @ hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:40 PM, yoda said: 2 look to be misses to the S/SE of us... the other 3 have QPF in the 0.25-0.50 range please keep it coming yoda. if you think about stopping, just don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:45 PM, Ian said: please keep it coming yoda. if you think about stopping, just don't. I will try my best to make interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Wish we could lock up some of the ensemble member snow totals Those look pretty good Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Potential best snow of the season at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Seem to be a few obscene member snowfall totals..... I guess there is some big upside here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:18 PM, PhineasC said: We want big QPF. We get screwed on events like this when the rates never materialize and we get light non-sticking wet snow for 12 hours with multiple drizzle lulls. agree but we are in a way more favorable spot for temps then people in dc so that might account for different opinions in what is more crucial qpf or temps. True answer is both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 and now we wait for the Euro to make us happy or dash our dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:53 PM, Subtropics said: Potential best snow of the season at DCA? Probable last snow of the season at DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 5:45 PM, Ian said: please keep it coming yoda. if you think about stopping, just don't. just spit out my water all on my screen, seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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