WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z runs will be <72hours from snow start per last night's runs. Bring it home. 30" awaits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I need 7.2" to hit climo... please please please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If this happens I need to find a way to stay up for that changeover... or get up really early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 NAM plasters the region starting at hour 75....uh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 6z NAM has changeover in Westminster around 13z Thursday morning - through the end of the run 3.5" 00z GFS had 4.1 snow 06z GFS was terrible with not even an inch of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 0z Euro looks like 6-8 inches for the entire area, including all of MD, DE, N half of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I sure hope today isn't when we start to lose the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:38 PM, winterymix said: NAM plasters the region starting at hour 75....uhI don't think we've switched over yet by then. It seems we'd switch over ~81 at least in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:52 PM, nj2va said: I don't think we've switched over yet by then. It seems we'd switch over between 78-81 at least in DC. but there is some good qpf once it does flip. Could be a real heavy thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 After the last storm with the NAM getting surface temps and CAD right, I can't feel I can ignore the CAD setup that NAM gives us on March 3rd at the start of this event before changing over to rain around midnight. GFS isn't onboard with that, though, but GFS didn't get the CAD on yesterday's storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:50 PM, PhineasC said: I sure hope today isn't when we start to lose the storm. This is the kind that can go completely poof in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:54 PM, H2O said: but there is some good qpf once it does flip. Could be a real heavy thump Yeah, definitely a much better look than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 This one feels like someone North or South is gonna be disappointed and that hasn't been determined yet......even though the euro showed a we storm...as has been mentioned here many times...there is no we here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Euro is due for a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Canadian looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:52 PM, nj2va said: I don't think we've switched over yet by then. It seems we'd switch over ~81 at least in DC. per Cobb DCA: hr 79 is sleet hr 84 is snow IAD: hr 79 is sleet hr 83 is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:25 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z runs will be <72hours from snow start per last night's runs. Bring it home. 30" awaits. I'm getting 13"? Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 latest sref mean snow at BWI is 6.64", up from 5.33" overnight run fwiw http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150302&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.796920703764606&mLON=-87.61363662109375&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 1:38 PM, mitchnick said: latest sref mean snow at BWI is 6.64", up from 5.33" overnight run fwiw http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150302&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.796920703764606&mLON=-87.61363662109375&mTYP=roadmap Srefs are really a crappy tool...so many outliers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 1:38 PM, mitchnick said: latest sref mean snow at BWI is 6.64", up from 5.33" overnight run fwiw http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150302&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=40.796920703764606&mLON=-87.61363662109375&mTYP=roadmap Couple of 20 inchers in there that need to be taken out. Yields more like 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 1:41 PM, PhineasC said: Couple of 20 inchers in there that need to be taken out. Yields more like 5-6. 5 high outliers and 4 low outliers...so Id take out 9 members. It really is a crap tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 12:25 PM, WxUSAF said: 12z runs will be <72hours from snow start per last night's runs. Bring it home. 30" awaits. That's a lot for one storm in early march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 1:40 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Srefs are really a crappy tool...so many outliers no model is crappy when it gives BWI a mean of 6.64" of snow in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2015 Author Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 1:46 PM, needbiggerboat said: That's a lot for one storm in early march #FITF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I just wish we could get a storm this year during normal hours while everyone is awake. So tired of waking up and only having a couple hours of snow before it shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If it's going to snow in march, then it would be very helpful to have it happen at night. Overnight timing would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 2:17 PM, WxWatcher said: I just wish we could get a storm this year during normal hours while everyone is awake. So tired of waking up and only having a couple hours of snow before it shuts off.We had one last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Correct. If it happens during the day we need like -15 to -20 departures. Much better odds if it happens at night. On 3/2/2015 at 2:19 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: If it's going to snow in march, then it would be very helpful to have it happen at night. Overnight timing would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 2:17 PM, WxWatcher said: I just wish we could get a storm this year during normal hours while everyone is awake. So tired of waking up and only having a couple hours of snow before it shuts off. Saturday Feb. 21 was a daytime snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 On 3/2/2015 at 2:20 PM, snowfan said: Correct. If it happens during the day we need like -15 to -20 departures. Much better odds if it happens at night. Yep, and even then you run the problem of melting unless you have (and keep) heavy rates. I dislike the drip...drip...drip that accompanies daytime late-season snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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