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Met Spring Banter Thread


HailMan06

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Temps busting low today? Its much chillier out there than yesterday, at least feels it in the city.

If you were even close to any water it was a couple days cooler. At Columbia up on morning side hill it was really actually as warm day. I took a walk down to riverside park and lower and next to the Hudson it was noticeably cooler

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Guest Pamela

What a loverly day...58 chug chug spring

 

All I want is a room somewhere

Far away from the cold night air

With one enormous chair

Oh, wouldn't it be loverly...

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We all survived February, which had the same departure from normal. It really puts things into perspective, I wouldn't actually want a +12 July, a +6 would be sufficient imo.

Departures of 10 degrees or more can happen in winter months but not in summer months...As I posted earlier +6 or so would be a record month in summer...a plus 10 departure in summer would be deadly.
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Wednesday was another one of those spring days where the warm downslope flow

allowed Newark to beat the forecast high by 8 degrees. The model guidance

just can't seem to handle these days very well.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=SFT&format=CI&version=11&glossary=0

 

TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST NJ...SOUTHEAST NY AND SOUTHERN CT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
546 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

 

..NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...
NEWARK, NJ
PTCLDY 
41/55

 

Actual Newark high 63 degrees.

...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 11 2015...CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1929 TO 2015WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                  NORMAL..................................................................TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY  MAXIMUM         63    403 PM  71    1977  49     14       67
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A +12 in July would be avg lows in the mid 80s and avg highs around 100. That would be insane.

July 2013 was as close as we might get...absolute inferno and then this current colder pattern set in in the waning days of that month...hasn't been warm since in any month.

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Partially why it's easier to forecast summer departures: the amount of energy required to warm the air when the temperature is already in the 80s (average) is significantly greater than the amount of energy required to raise the temperature from the 30s (January averages). Variation tends to be much less as a result. A +2 JJA is very hot.

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We all survived February, which had the same departure from normal. It really puts things into perspective, I wouldn't actually want a +12 July, a +6 would be sufficient imo.

Huge difference between winter and summer months plus heat is far deadlier than a cold wave. A +12 July would be murder, can you imagine what a steam oven those subways in the city would be. Also the grid would probably crash and we'd see massive blackouts.

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Huge difference between winter and summer months plus heat is far deadlier than a cold wave. A +12 July would be murder, can you imagine what a steam oven those subways in the city would be. Also the grid would probably crash and we'd see massive blackouts.

winter has a higher standard deviation. the end.
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