IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 They're closer to the warm front and surface low so it makes sense they have the highest threat but this setup to me looks even better than on Saturday when we had wind damage and up to 2" hail around Austin. Definitely a higher tornado risk. It's always a crap shoot though when dealing with severe. Absolutely. FWIW the 12z NAM was further South, but has more of a squall line look to it with perhaps a meso low on the North end. Would be more of a damaging wind threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Enhanced risk nudged south, might include Austin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Enhanced risk nudged south, might include Austin now. Take some pics if you get into a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Clouds are being very steadfast, but values look great-CAPE is 2500 j/kg, shear values are over 60kt, dewpoint is at 73 and Lifted Index is near -7. Strong storms are breaking out near the W TX dry line, in 4-5 hours or so that's probably our shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Clouds are being very steadfast, but values look great-CAPE is 2500 j/kg, shear values are over 60kt, dewpoint is at 73 and Lifted Index is near -7. Strong storms are breaking out near the W TX dry line, in 4-5 hours or so that's probably our shot. Cell in SW TX just went tornadic. That's the area that the HRRR says to watch for the Austin area later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 24, 2015 Share Posted April 24, 2015 Tornado south of Abilene now. Any storms that fire will go bonkers quick today. Wow... NWS describing it as a "large and extremely dangerous tornado". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Dallas is getting absolutely rocked right now with a bowing out supercell which earlier had tornadoes all the way near Abilene. Winds earlier near Fort Worth were estimated 90 mph. Today looked like a favorable setup for those guys. Down here we might have some of the storms that are near the Rio Grande, but my experience so far has been that those storms normally stay south of Austin or weaken when they get here. The tail end of the line that's over north central TX now might clip us again, and those tail end storms can pack a punch-one of those nailed us on Saturday. Pretty cool what's happening in Kansas today too-numerous crisscrossing outflow boundaries on radar that are blowing up into big storms, and several tornado warnings as well. If today doesn't work out, Sun/Mon looks like another active severe weather period for Texas, similar setup as today. I'm starting to see why this area is called hail/flash flood/tornado alley with the number of threats we've had over the past 2-3 weeks, and the whole month of May left to go. After late May the main threat area lifts north of us towards NE/KS/upper Midwest, and we go into roasting season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Tornado and several severe t-storm warnings south of San Antonio tonight-too bad these are going to miss south of me. Just isn't our day in central Texas-too much cloud cover and we couldn't shake it off despite excellent parameters otherwise. Onto Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Enhanced risk nudged south, might include Austin now. The Eyes of Texas Are upon you All the live long day The Eyes of Texas are upon you You cannot get away Don't you hear the whistle blowing? At night & early in the morn' The Eyes of Texas are upon you Until Gabriel blows his horn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 This happen today in Long Island, New York A quadruble rainbow Sent from my iPhone I think it is a sign from The Goddess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 25, 2015 Share Posted April 25, 2015 Thats why they are coming to Brooklyn. We'll support them win or lose tie. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 26, 2015 Share Posted April 26, 2015 Could be another very active severe weather day here. Austin's under an enhanced risk and very close to moderate risk. The risk seems to span the whole gamut from high winds to large hail and strong tornadoes. Parameters look very favorable-again we have strong shear, good CAPE and lifted indices as low as -10 and -11 in west central TX. It's also partly-mostly cloudy here and quite humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Took a while for the severe weather to get going down here but a nasty squall line is headed east through the Hill Country and should be here in a couple of hours. Doesn't look tornadic right now but there have been a couple of tornado warnings earlier with it. It should hold together due to very moist air and still unstable conditions for quite a ways further on its path. 60-70 mph wind gusts and up to golf-ball sized hail look like the main threats. The discrete supercells north of here towards Dallas have been quite damaging today-one currently has a large wedge tornado south of Fort Worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 It was a lot of fun radar chasing tornados in Texas last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 so much for the rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 The squall line woke me up when it hit about 1:30am my time. Winds were pretty strong, I'd say 45-50 mph and constant lightning for a solid 20 minutes. It also knocked power out in parts of town-the network at my office is down this morning from the storms. Looks like some tree damage reports are coming in this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Still in awe of this supercell-turned-landphoon from last night. Without question the most interesting severe event since El Reno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 so much for the rain today Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 Yep... Most of the modeling has been dry for days. No surprises here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 What is the el niño projected to be in strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 27, 2015 Share Posted April 27, 2015 It held together right into Louisiana and blew train cars off the elevated tracks. The developing El Nino is really bringing the STJ to life. Could make for an interesting next winter if we can score three winners in a row. https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/592702784342007809 http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/04/train_blown_off_track_elmwood.html https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy4r0TxZGy8 We can still use all the rain we can get in parts of Texas. A good chunk of the state is in severe or worse drought, and lake levels are still well below average. As for the T-storms in LA, a tornado warning was issued for New Orleans this morning. Not sure if one actually touched down. There were also tornado warnings last night in sparsely populated areas south of San Antonio on a well defined hook at the end of the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 I think it is a sign from The Goddess...i think it's amazing. Get ready for life to continue to be wonderful! Btw enjoy your spring/summer long time no speak.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Severe rioting warning for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Severe rioting warning for Baltimore.Yeah it sucks. It's very heated in the political forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Severe rioting warning for Baltimore.And my cousin is on the front line as we speak. Scary to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Yeah it sucks. It's very heated in the political forum. Bad idea getting Morris in there to drop a turd like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 And my cousin is on the front line as we speak. Scary to say the least Hope your cousin stays safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 The last time that I went into PR I ended up getting a warning point. They gang up on you if you don't agree with whatever agenda is currently being pushed. In any event, what's going on down in Baltimore is an utter shame. This is like the 70's all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 The last time that I went into PR I ended up getting a warning point. They gang up on you if you don't agree with whatever agenda is currently being pushed. In any event, what's going on down in Baltimore is an utter shame. This is like the 70's all over again. That's why I didnt want to comment because what I wanted to say would have started an argument. But its fu*ked up whats happening down there. The family asked for peace and of course ignorant people do the opposite and burn the city down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 Bad idea getting Morris in there to drop a turd like usual. Stay classy my friend. The end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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