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Met Spring Banter Thread


HailMan06

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And up around NYC at least the heat hits for a few days, maybe a week, before a front comes through (for many with a good squall line and severe weather) and cools everyone off. Here, post Memorial Day the only heat relief to expect before mid-late Sept is a tropical system or a front on steroids/random MCS, which cools us off but at the expense of jacking up the humidity. From late July to Labor Day it isn't unheard of to have 3/4 of daily highs be above 100 with quite a few above 105. Even people "used to the heat" from FL and CA warn about the heat in south Texas. 

 

 

Austin's average highs in July-Aug are hotter than any temp I've recorded since 2012. Wow. Just brutal. With an average in the mid/upper 90s, you know there's days near 110. I'm not too familiar with Austin's climate, but given their overnight lows in the mid 70s and geographic location east of the classic "dry line", they're in a hot/humid climate. West Texas is probably more tolerable (although still brutal) with lower dew points and 95-100F heat. Either way, that's hot as hell. You're going to be reaching for a jacket any time you visit here after adjusting to that climate.

 

 

High °F Low °F   High °C Low °C 62 42 January 16 5 65 45 February 18 7 72 51 March 22 11 80 59 April 27 15 87 67 May 30 19 92 72 June 33 22 96 74 July 35 24 97 75 August 36 24 91 69 September 33 21 82 61 October 28 16 71 51 November 22 10 63 42 December 17 6 80 59 Year 27 15

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Austin's average highs in July-Aug are hotter than any temp I've recorded since 2012. Wow. Just brutal. With an average in the mid/upper 90s, you know there's days near 110. I'm not too familiar with Austin's climate, but given their overnight lows in the mid 70s and geographic location east of the classic "dry line", they're in a hot/humid climate. West Texas is probably more tolerable (although still brutal) with lower dew points and 95-100F heat. Either way, that's hot as hell. You're going to be reaching for a jacket any time you visit here after adjusting to that climate.

High °F Low °F High °C Low °C 62 42 January 16 5 65 45 February 18 7 72 51 March 22 11 80 59 April 27 15 87 67 May 30 19 92 72 June 33 22 96 74 July 35 24 97 75 August 36 24 91 69 September 33 21 82 61 October 28 16 71 51 November 22 10 63 42 December 17 6 80 59 Year 27 15

From long beach the capital of cool summer sea breeze to south Texas. Wow I'm sure there will be more hot days this summer then a whole lifetime in LB!!! Big diffrence today between Manhattan and the south shore. Jacket weather on the island and short sleeves in the city.
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Austin's average highs in July-Aug are hotter than any temp I've recorded since 2012. Wow. Just brutal. With an average in the mid/upper 90s, you know there's days near 110. I'm not too familiar with Austin's climate, but given their overnight lows in the mid 70s and geographic location east of the classic "dry line", they're in a hot/humid climate. West Texas is probably more tolerable (although still brutal) with lower dew points and 95-100F heat. Either way, that's hot as hell. You're going to be reaching for a jacket any time you visit here after adjusting to that climate.

High °F Low °F High °C Low °C 62 42 January 16 5 65 45 February 18 7 72 51 March 22 11 80 59 April 27 15 87 67 May 30 19 92 72 June 33 22 96 74 July 35 24 97 75 August 36 24 91 69 September 33 21 82 61 October 28 16 71 51 November 22 10 63 42 December 17 6 80 59 Year 27 15

People warn me left and right about the summers here, believe me I know it's gonna suck. People pretty much stay inside or go to places with great AC for 3 months out of the year.

BTW the all time record of 111 was hit in August of 2011 during the height of the last drought here. But temps very commonly top out in the low and mid-100s especially late July and August.

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From long beach the capital of cool summer sea breeze to south Texas. Wow I'm sure there will be more hot days this summer then a whole lifetime in LB!!! Big diffrence today between Manhattan and the south shore. Jacket weather on the island and short sleeves in the city.

Looks today like most are at least 60-65. Too bad about the clouds.
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People warn me left and right about the summers here, believe me I know it's gonna suck. People pretty much stay inside or go to places with great AC for 3 months out of the year.

BTW the all time record of 111 was hit in August of 2011 during the height of the last drought here. But temps very commonly top out in the low and mid-100s especially late July and August.

 

You get to see some beautiful storm structure down in Texas.

 

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Today might be an active day in central TX, hopefully we see some good activity. So far it's all been well north of here and below average.

 

It looks like Austin is near the southern end of where the strongest tornadoes and severe in general occur in Texas.

The major tornado probabilities increase as you head up toward DFW. I can remember Jarrell EF5 just to your north

back in 1997.

 

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I'm wondering whether summers will wind up cooler than normal for many years to come do to the -AMO shift. The cooler waters are less supportive of sustained SE ridging/Bermuda highs, pumping heat up the coast.

 

The thing is, the much below normal water temps are more or less confined to the immediate shore. The rest of the Atlantic looks more or less average. Maybe a slight nod to above average.  The cold temps along the coast make for a cooler coastal spring, but I dont know that it will have much of an impact on larger scale ridges/troughs.

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The shear profiles in the Atlantic this year look fine for home brews in the Gulf and off the FL coast

 

The CSU team is predicting below normal Atlantic activity. Mostly because of the expected El Nino and cooler waters in the ITCZ -especially off the coast of Africa. That could cut down the number of classic long track cape verde storms.  I also took note that the skill level in predictions for hurricane seasons in April is very low. It apparently gets better by the time they make the June prediction.  But like you said- if the environment closer to home (just off the east coast) is conudusive, we  could see something spin up and get a little too close for comfort.

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The CSU team is predicting below normal Atlantic activity. Mostly because of the expected El Nino and cooler waters in the ITCZ -especially off the coast of Africa. That could cut down the number of classic long track cape verde storms.  I also took note that the skill level in predictions for hurricane seasons in April is very low. It apparently gets better by the time they make the June prediction.  But like you said- if the environment closer to home (just off the east coast) is conudusive, we  could see something spin up and get a little too close for comfort.

Everyone is expecting a below average season in the Atlantic basin this season but if you look at the predicted shear profiles from the Euro, particularly during the first half of the season, we should be able to pull off a few homebrews.

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Could be an exciting late afternoon and evening here. Some stronger storms are popping west of San Antonio, one in S TX is tornadic right now, and the skies are clearing out here in Austin. If today doesn't work out, we also have an elevated risk tomorrow and slight risk Saturday. Primary threat seems to be large hail and wind vs tornadoes, but it doesn't take a lot to spin some up here.

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Cluster SW of here is severe warned now, let's see what happens. Skies outside are starting to get dark. There should be enough instability to sustain these for a while.

Keep the pbp going!!! We are in the heart of the weather duldrums as far as I'm concerned. 50s with a raw SE wind. It's actually pretty nice in Manhattan right now though just a touch of chill to the breeze. LB will be fogging up soon I'm sure

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