snowman19 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 What evidence do you have to back up that statement. Most experts say we're still in an active cycle, and that it's not unusual to have a cluster of below average seasons.We are going into a -AMO cycle, no one is denying that, look at the AMO numbers and the Atlantic SST configuration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 We are going into a -AMO cycle, no one is denying that, look at the AMO numbers and the Atlantic SST configurationYou're absolutly right. This is not just a "slow" period. No one hates this more then east coast surfers like myself. We were spoiled for the last 2 decades with east coast surfing making the world map after a contest on par with the super bowl went off with a cat 4 spinning off the OBX. Those days are over. Back on topic another day of horrendous weather. We saw this comming a million miles away though. I think we switch right to summer at some point in the next couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 You're absolutly right. This is not just a "slow" period. No one hates this more then east coast surfers like myself. We were spoiled for the last 2 decades with east coast surfing making the world map after a contest on par with the super bowl went off with a cat 4 spinning off the OBX. Those days are over. Back on topic another day of horrendous weather. We saw this comming a million miles away though. I think we switch right to summer at some point in the next couple weeks Disagree, ensembles show us reverting back to an east coast trough towards the end of the month. Also if we are indeed switching to a prolonged -AMO then we should be see a lack of summer heat though a warming planet would be at odds with that somewhat. Just because the AMO is negative doesn't mean we've locked in a -AMO cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Disagree, ensembles show us reverting back to an east coast trough towards the end of the month. Also if we are indeed switching to a prolonged -AMO then we should be see a lack of summer heat though a warming planet would be at odds with that somewhat. Just because the AMO is negative doesn't mean we've locked in a -AMO cycle. Ok, done arguing this with you. Fruitless. Truth be told, we have entered a long term -AMO, it's fact, not opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Ok, done arguing this with you. Fruitless. Truth be told, we have entered a long term -AMO, it's fact, not opinion http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data According to this the AMO has been mostly positive and was positive for the past "quieter" hurricane seasons. There's not enough to prove we've entered a long term -AMO just because March averaged negative. There are far more factors in play than just the AMO itself but currently the overall state of the AMO is still averaging positive since it flipped around 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data According to this the AMO has been mostly positive and was positive for the past "quieter" hurricane seasons. There's not enough to prove we've entered a long term -AMO just because March averaged negative. There are far more factors in play than just the AMO itself but currently the overall state of the AMO is still averaging positive since it flipped around 1995. There has been a progressive down trend for years it's not a sudden negative jump. And mets and climatologists with Ph.D.'s agree we are going into a long term negative phase. I know you don't want it to be true because you think -AMO means less Atlantic and arctic blocking (+NAO and +AO) and less intense winter storms and sub par hurricane seasons. But as has been pointed out, at least the NAO and AO part of that is not always true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Agree with the comments on the new -AMO coming. JB and others have also showns graphs of SST profiles and it looks like it's starting, albeit a bit earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 There has been a progressive down trend for years it's not a sudden negative jump. And mets and climatologists with Ph.D.'s agree we are going into a long term negative phase. I know you don't want it to be true because you think -AMO means less Atlantic and arctic blocking (+NAO and +AO) and less intense winter storms and sub par hurricane seasons. But as has been pointed out, at least the NAO and AO part of that is not always true If the -AMO means record cold and more winters like 12/13 and 14/15 then I welcome it with open arms. All we need is a bit more blocking which doesn't sound unreasonable. And a quiet hurricane period doesn't mean we're safe either. We've seen a few monsters in the previous -AMO period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 Last year was pretty good for surfing, at least around here. The previous +AMO era had negative spikes as well, too early to call guys. It's more than likely a product of the +NAO. I think it works the other way around, cold winters push the AMO negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 what does a -amo mean? Could someone batter using dumb words school me on these things? Anyone have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 9, 2015 Share Posted April 9, 2015 That 24/7 weather station the article references ain't that reliable. Neither is Fox news :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Last year was pretty good for surfing, at least around here. The previous +AMO era had negative spikes as well, too early to call guys. It's more than likely a product of the +NAO. I think it works the other way around, cold winters push the AMO negative. For sure last summer was great. We had a swell on July 4th that came up way way faster then anything I have seen in Hawaii. 3 foot to 10 foot plus in 5 minutes it was absolutly insane!!!! We lucked out big time though with tracks as most storms that did form were right in our swell window. Moving forward I doubt we are that lucky. This summer is all about a developing moderate Nino. I still remember 97 there was one hurricane swell that was it. Not saying we see that this summer but my hopes aren't high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 Hoping the el nino poofs a bit. Hurricane Bob came during a borderline weak/mod event, having a west based el-nino modoki would help as well. Sometimes homebrew activity inherently has more impact, depends on the pattern. Most of us don't want more than big waves but mother nature is not discriminatory. The recent tendency for hurricanes to form predominantly outside of the tropics (20N) is also more favorable for impacts locally if anything does form, while leaving Florida and GOM in the clear. The impacts are all relative, we've had some sick events between 2009-2014 from Irene, Sandy, and a couple close brushes creating massive surf, and this was occuring while Florida was in their longest hurricane drought on record. It's challenging for me to downplay it anymore, SST are seemingly always warm along the coast, even with the current -AMO. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2015 Share Posted April 10, 2015 The EPO/PDO swing between the last two Jan-Mar periods and 2012 just doesn't get any more extreme than this. In the span of just three years we went from the warmest on record to the coldest since 1940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Went down to Point Pleasant this morning to check this out. Pretty interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 Went down to Point Pleasant this morning to check this out. Pretty interesting to say the least. What's the deal with that? Fishing boat on the beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Beautiful small drone footage of a gorgeous winter day in Long Beach. Does anyone that posts here own one of these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Beautiful small drone footage of a gorgeous winter day in Long Beach. Does anyone that posts here own one of these? A friend of mine took this during the "busted" blizzard. I'd like to get one myself but I still can't quite justify it. As far as money goes they're not too expensive anymore but things are getting hazy as far as the law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 I believe it's somewhat mild today. Winterwarlock/Snowman19, confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Ill top 70 todayy..im already in shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 What an awful day why can't it be 40s and dreary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Temps dropping in the NYC area now. Windy and 62 here. 70s look unlikely again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Temps dropping in the NYC area now. Windy and 62 here. 70s look unlikely again. And just like that, the park jumped five degrees in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 And just like that, the park jumped five degrees in the past hour. Nice. Only 63 here and at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Crazy that Montreal is much warmer than the city now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Boston hit 70 today. Figures they would hit that before we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Global warming is causing massive sharp cut off jet streams which are not budging much. Meaning jet streams are getting stronger but are stationary more or less. Areas that do get rain will keep getting inundated, meanwhile areas that are not on the path of the prolonged jet stream overhead, will get dry winds and no precipitation. I've noticed this a few years ago and I wanted to share it with you. In my opinion this is really bad news, as California drought may get worse and hurricanes could get stronger. The image below shows an illustration of (RED jet stream supports the wet humid air), (BLUE Jet stream would be dry and windy collaboration of the two). Sent from my spaceship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Boston hit 70 today. Figures they would hit that before we did. If it makes you feel any better, it hit 87 in Austin today. It hit me-walked outside for 10 minutes around midday and the sun (believe me, you feel it, it's 10 degrees higher in the sky than NYC) broke me out in sweat. It hit 87 a week ago under almost a 70 degree dewpoint and drenched me in sweat tout suite. Summer's gonna suuuuuuuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 If it makes you feel any better, it hit 87 in Austin today. It hit me-walked outside for 10 minutes around midday and the sun (believe me, you feel it, it's 10 degrees higher in the sky than NYC) broke me out in sweat. It hit 87 a week ago under almost a 70 degree dewpoint and drenched me in sweat tout suite. Summer's gonna suuuuuuuck. Sheesh thank god that's only dealt with here for 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Sheesh thank god that's only dealt with here for 3 months And up around NYC at least the heat hits for a few days, maybe a week, before a front comes through (for many with a good squall line and severe weather) and cools everyone off. Here, post Memorial Day the only heat relief to expect before mid-late Sept is a tropical system or a front on steroids/random MCS, which cools us off but at the expense of jacking up the humidity. From late July to Labor Day it isn't unheard of to have 3/4 of daily highs be above 100 with quite a few above 105. Even people "used to the heat" from FL and CA warn about the heat in south Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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